what is the profit for nov and dec.., how you guys calculate?
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what is the profit for nov and dec.., how you guys calculate?
For an easy comparison, you might want to have a look at the annual report for 2008. Things have changed a bit since then but it was a high margin year. I would imagine that 2015 will be producing similar if not better results so we might see turnover of 400m and a profit of $175m giving a pretty good EPS. 2008 was blessed by a good margin and a declining NZD in the later part of the year. 2008 and 2015 are both years without Hydrocracker shutdowns. Will be nice to see what influence the new project has (if any) in this financial year. Dont forget that the pipeline itself generates 35m in revenue. This share has been underpriced for too long and with an EPS of 50+ cents it will remain underpriced for some time yet!
Thanks again cdonald. You seem to know a lot about NZR.
Yes it does look like a comparable year.
Much better economy just now. Bear market then / bull now.
Also it seems Post & co have made the plant more efficient, plus TMH to come.
All in all you'd expect the price to be HIGHER this coming year than in 2008.
From http://www.refiningnz.com/media/4470...alreport08.pdf
NZR 2008 summary:
EPS 52c
Margin $11.3
Ex rate .48-.78 - say .63
Share price $5-$8
NZX50 4,000 - 2700, falling through the year (NZR generally held up well).
I did a spot of 'panic buying' yesterday, hitting the sellers, and got a lousy price, 2.49.
Am more-or-less fully loaded now.
I'm surprised how little reaction there has been, here and in the share price.
Summary:
NZR - comparison 2008 / 2015
2015
2008 EPS c 48e 52 Div c ? 45 Margin $11.3 10 11.3 Ex rate 0.78 0.63 Share price 2.57 $5-$8 NZ50 5672 4,000-2700 Tone Bull Bear
roughly based on those 2008 results then at current prices pe would be 6.5
75% payout ratio would be 25c - 30c div giving a yield of 9 - 10%
at $4 share price pe 10 yield 6.25% very rough and quick but shows potential upside if the year goes good and the wildcard is they do a bumper div to make up for the last few yrs of hardly anything
If they can lift throughput that would bump up revenue and profit big time
I noticed Z operations update and there fuel sales are well up which is a big thing for a petrol company so i dont think they have got more market share and it is more likely demand is up because of lower petrol price - more driving being done so extrpolated across all petrol companies this extra demand could provide the extra through put at nz refining?
very happy to hold ..., my intial target is around 3.70 ...got in early ..so provide a very good safeguard at 1.80
big drop in nzd/usd after RBNZ announcement is good for company