Refer to my 30th June 2010 post #522 and chart
Chart update.
Since there is now an index rise occurring, therefore that 50% chance of a drop without a pullback is gone.
This makes the chances of a recovering rally double from 4% to 8% (Bulkowski)...although its positive news, 8% is still not good odds...and for the Bulkowski believers this would provide a second chance to sell out.
Pullbacks are dangerous as they can sometimes break back through key supports, enticing the unwary to re-enter ..then suddenly drop.
A continuing rally past 1120 would make me a little more optimistic that it would be a genuine rally....not another sucker rally type including the pullback behavioural feature.
Chart note the predicted red dotted line is not to scale.