Originally Posted by
Cyclical
Even if the market is pricing in a vaccine within the suggested time frame, hasn't the damage to economies already been done, but the full effects have yet to be felt? Think any other economic down turn that isn't triggered by a pandemic (and let's face it, we were well overdue a correction), you'd expect some long drawn out pain, right? Fundamentally there was a pretty decent bubble before C19 came along. Sure, this massive QE injection is all well and good, but it's not stopping people from losing jobs left right and center. It's not suddenly going to breath life back in tourism and everything else that enjoys the foreign currency trickle down. Is QE the silver bullet? Didn't we (maybe not so much NZ) have plenty of that last time?
To me it just seems like we're going to have '87 all over again, when every man and his dog was speculating, and a huge chunk got burnt, never to return. History never repeats though, right?
Yeah, I think the market is in la la land. But who knows. I've got some FOMO of my own going on, but having lost ~80% back in '87, I'm being pretty cautious. Like Beagle, OCA is by far my biggest holding currently, because I think it's a pretty safe hedge, regardless of which way the market (and MET's takeover) goes.