By the way its Thursday so that means rally night. Should see $1350 broken tonight, just my opinion.
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By the way its Thursday so that means rally night. Should see $1350 broken tonight, just my opinion.
The 3rd option is too politically embarrasing for the Obama Admin and Feds. I've read estimates of between $500,000 and $800,000 as the COST of each new job created via the QE Stimulus programme. Obama and the Feds are Keynesian devotees through and through, in spite of the huge lack of evidence that excessive borrowing is the best route out of any economic malaise. It's a politically sound strategy (at best) since it defers the problem to future adminstrations and the country's children but it's not proven to be economically sound, particularly at these debts levels incurred lately. The American ego unfortunately regards as unpatriotic the nay sayers to this warped, uproven and perilous approach to fiscal (mis)management.
At least the Europeans (the German's mainly) have some respect for more responsible, austere economic management, as unpopular politically as that may be. When the ECB prints money to bailout a country, it's with strict fiscal policy conditions attached (and yes, OK, sovereignty overrides as well) so as to bring a more sustainable outcome to bear.
Where or where is the sustainability in the USA's excessive (and rising) Debt/GDP ratio, its relatively pathetic level of job creation and (given the rapidly rising long term interest rates) its low level of inflation? It is not only doomsters who are observing that the worst is yet to come.
BC
Good point, Daytr. I plan to take some profit tomorrow afternoon. Just how much will depend on the strength of the rally.
Cheers,
BC
I'm a trader - if there is a small rally overnight, I sell down half my gold stocks Friday afternoon, which historically is when the ASX often has a sell off. I'll be back in next week...buying in on the lows.
If however the rally is massive, I'll be holding to sell on the way down. It's not rocket science. Knowing when to time my trades (buys and sells) is just as important as understanding the stock's underlying fundamentals and market trends.
BC
I'm a trader - if there is a small rally overnight, I sell down half my gold stocks Friday afternoon, which historically is when the ASX often has a sell off. I'll be back in next week...buying in on the lows.
If however the rally is massive, I'll be holding to sell on the way down. It's not rocket science. Knowing when to time my trades (buys and sells) is just as important as understanding the stock's underlying fundamentals and market trends.
Prayer also helps (which I don't do enough of).
BC
That TA is based on SMA and Bolli bands.
Just for the record another TA view could be that following an a-b-c correction from the 2011 high we have now seen a five wave move which may be considered impulsive commencing at somewhere around the 61.8% fib retracement of the late 2008 - mid 2011 move.
This chart shows the weekly view with the EW count (white) and a fib level in orange.
Attachment 4870
Zooming in a bit onto the daily view to show only the last few months we can more clearly see this five wave move from the late Jun 2013 low.
We can also see a subsequent a-b-c move and the question is whether this has completed or not. It has also retraced nearly 61.8% of its gain and then had the big bounce from the non-taper announcement.
Attachment 4871
Moving to the hourly chart we also see a five wave move from the low on the 18th Sept followed by an a-b-c correction which this time goes to the 78.2% fib retracement before turning and again completing a small five wave pattern (not shown)
Attachment 4872
So TA could argue that we have done correcting both long and medium term, we may still have another short term correction to go - I'd would consider this short term view negated by anything below 1291 but even below 1309 starts to look very doubtful.
Med term view would be negated by moving too much below 1250 and definitely at 1180.
I'm really just putting this out there as alternative to the TA view in the article Moosie posted and to make me crystallise this interpretation.
Discl. only trade gold occasionally at a very small level. I mainly look at gold as an indicator for silver which I hold both physical and virtual and as stated previously am a buyer on oversold dips.
Nice one Peat, thanks for the input.
Moosie, like BC I'm a trader with a fundamental outlook on a stock but really as a proxy to the gold price.
An interview with Nouriel Roubini:
Tapering
Stronger dollar
China slowing
US equities looking good
Interest rates up
Commodity prices down
http://www.reuters.com/video/2013/09...eoId=273907562
Adds up to lower gold.
I think that's a new word there Moosie. What about this chart, a bit simpler, implying gold has nearly hit the lower rising trendline, and could easily improve from here.
http://www.ino.com/blog/2013/09/is-i...oking-at-gold/
Yes Gold moving on up,, will we finally see some direction or will this just be more sideways movement without a defined break
be great to see 1430+
--sounds like we have a few more traders round IMHO really only why to be these days esp in the resource/energy sectors ...you have a good profit TAKE IT as it seems 8 out of 10 times you can buy your shares back for close to what they were before announcement of discovery/deal etc only weeks later