With cool charts like this anything is possible Paper Tiger ....so the answer to your question is very likely (in the foreseeable future)
Even on a log scale it would look pretty good
Printable View
Agree Kizame - I will be accumulating throughout March and think the SP will float lower during this time. From then on, its all upwards with frequent announcements pushing it higher (one in each of April, May, and July). I am pretty confident $72m ACMR will be reached well before year end as well.
Paper Tiger makes a good point - will PPH ever justify a $471 market cap?
But I'm beginning to wonder if the clever people have done their sums (DCFs etc) and come to the conclusion that current valuation is about right assuming growth continues and there's no disasters / hiccups along the way - in other words in $2 about the righ price for PPH
Recall Xero - plenty of hype around $18/$20 and it shot up to over $40 before the sums were done and it drifted back to $18/$20 and has stayed there for a long time.
With PPH was the hype/excitment to $2.75 the big spike up (like Xero's $40) and settling back to $1.80/$2.00 an indication that is what PPH is really worth. If it follows Xero then it could stay around this level for some time .....unless something bad happens and the share price collapses.
That happened to DIL and he share price did recover but not back to previous highs. It found a level that the market was 'happy' with and stayed there for a while until 'taken over'
Just thinking aloud here - beginning I've paid over the odds for PPH - but then it could be all OK if the world stays so happy and things like Snapchat fly to make tech the in thing again.
Just done a DCF for Push
To get a feel for the assumptions I have made ebitda in 2020 is $55m and Paper Tigers $47m NPAT happens in 2021.
My base case DCF valuation is $2.40 and that's on a discount rate of 10% and 3% pa growth after 2024 (would prefer to use a higher discount rate)
If things aren't as bullish value is $1.50 and if they exceed my expectations $3.33
So not too bad ...maybe
No worries mate, every 15 years or so along comes another generation of investors ready to push things into the stratosphere so taking into account the last huge dotcom tech bubble of 2001 16 years ago, we're already overdue by one year. XRO taking so long to get cash flow neutral it is a sick joke and doesn't bear any comparison with PPH.
https://nzx.com/companies/PPH/announcements/298293
Quarterly update on 12th Apr, hopefully it would've pushed thro' $2 mark by that time...
12th of April will be an interesting day! My guess is they move the 100m nzd target forward to Q2 at best and Q3 at worst :)