Te Mahi Hou will lift current processing fees by $1.10 - i.e. today's $10 becomes $11.10 - and so can still fall $2.10 before hit hits the cap.
As I understand it.
So maybe 2015 and 2016 look good.
Ex rates - who knows?
As for shutdowns - were there any in Nov or Dec 2014? I used those figures to give the daily throughput, so if there were shutdowns the daily figure needs to be increased,
IME the market seems to give undue weight to present-day conditions; so prices overshoot and undershoot.
Here's what my spreadsheet gives for div flow valuation if the PF is constant for 10 years.
The present PF is effectively $11, post TMH.
PF |
Value |
11 |
6.66 |
10 |
6.66 |
9 |
6.66 |
8 |
5.24 |
7 |
3.82 |
6 |
2.4 |
5 |
0.99 |