Originally Posted by
iluab
It’s a matter of perspective, you said all they need to do is replicate 2H16 revenues, not once but twice, for 1H17 and 2H17, and then perform 20% better than that yet again for good measure.
Do stop and have a think about just how speculative that really is;
Those 2H16 revenues were achieved at the peak of the infant formula and grey market channel boom, and at a time when the regulatory headwinds were not yet in effect.
There are headwinds going forward now,
Companies like Danone are telling us that their infant formula sales to China through online and grey market channels are dropping, and ATM are way way more exposed to the grey channel than the likes of Danone.
Comvita, in the face of similar regulatory changes recently made a HY loss stating that was entirely due to those regulatory changes.
Synlait have provided guidance, it’s telling, and should not be ignored by investors.
If you run the math on that Synlait guidance in respect of ATM, it paints a forward revenue picture, with both 1H17 and 2H17 revenues below that of 2H16.
Let’s wait for the agm to see what that guidance is precisely, my only warning and recommendation to folks, is to shake off any influence from the ATM cult culture, focus on what’s real, and make the right decision, whatever that may be for you.