Refer to Winner's article.
And Tower are by no means the only Insurer in this situation - What drove Buffet buying into IAG in 2014? Reinsurance.
Printable View
Hmm - just follow the big money:
AMP - selling: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/239744.pdf
Devon - selling: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/239652.pdf
however:
SALT: buying: https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/239714.pdf
Confusing ... begs the question - which of the funds have the better analysts ... or is this a clear 2/3 majority?
How much do you guys think the recent announcement of higher than expected claims will affect the SP in the near term? Tried to 'pick the bottom' of TWR at 1.80, was thinking of cutting my losses at ~1.37 for last couple of weeks, SP is now close to 1.10! Well at least my loss in capital is helping people who were affected by the earthquakes
Hard to say. What their announcement basically says is that the additional provision for the Canterbury earthquakes is similarly sized than what analysts expected them to earn this year.
On the other hand ... it is unclear how much of this money they will need to spend this year (these things take time), and obviously - a provision is not yet the money spent.
At this stage the market is clearly in panic mode (and this is normally not the right time to sell). It might pay to wait until the storm is over and review than whether you believe that this was the last bad news from this company (in this case it might pay to hold) or whether you've lost your confidence in management (in this case it might pay to cut losses and leave).
BTW - not sure, how the money you (and I:ohmy:) lost in Tower would benefit people affected by the earthquakes. It only helped the people who sold out earlier (and at a better price) ... to both of us.
Discl: holding .... lucky me just a small parcel;)
TWR was only ~6 % of my portfolio when i bought at 1.80. It is barely 3% now so i am not too worried, and am definitely not selling at these levels.
Giving money to people who suffered in the earthquake makes me feel good about losing money so i will continue to believe that that is where my lost capital has gone :-) Definitely makes me feel better than losing it to more savvy investors!