I fear some of Winners bowling mates have bought some :( buggar
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Thanks. First impressions are of a solid result for the second half and obviously the dividend was just slightly above my expectations at 30.5 cps.
Outlook for FY20 is for EBITDA growth and full year dividend forecast of 48 - 54 cps which again is pretty close to my expectations.
Looking ahead to prospective yield for a new investor buying today and looking through the immediate dividend to ascertain FY20 effective yield - At the mid point (51 cps) fully imputed gives gross 51 / 0.72 = 70.83 cps which gives a gross yield of 70.83 / 590.5 = 12% on a theoretical ex divvy price of $5.90.5 ($6.21 - .305).
12% return for a consumer item nearly 100% of people and business's have to buy seems compelling to me in this ultra low interest rate environment.
Is the 2020 dividend fully imputed?
Edit - nevermind just saw Beagles post.
result just as we alluded too yesterday, margin pressure
Z has delivered Historical Cost Net Profit after Tax (HC NPAT) of $186 million, a decrease of$77 million from the prior corresponding period (PCP). The 29% decline reflects crude pricemovements in FY19, steadily rising in the first half then falling steeply during the third quarterto end the year largely flat.
So based on this the current period has seen oil rise steadily again so im presuming its bad for them based on the above comments
Industry standard reporting is replacement cost. As someone who clearly invests for safe yield I strongly recommend you put in some effort on understanding this one for your own benefit. Fuel is a consumer staple just like power and food, (regardless of whether or not it fits the classic definition of same for inclusion is consumer staple indices) and 12% gross yield is exceptional.
The presentation contains some commentary on the future effect of demand for petrol, (note of the total volume supplied petrol is just 29%)
Ante-up with some intellectual application mate, you might really like what you find http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...935/299133.pdf
It is well worth noting that average broker forecast dividends for FY20 were just 47.7 cps so the company mid point dividend forecast of 51 cps fully imputed is a material beat of ~ a 7% increase on market expectation. https://www.marketscreener.com/Z-ENE...98/financials/
This could lead to a not dissimilar sized SP increase.
From their release FY20 Outlook is based on following:
"The FY20 forecast is based on an average barrel price
of US$70 per barrel and USD/NZD exchange rate of 0.68."
And Oil currently is tracking $72/barrel and USD/NZD cross rate of 0.6622, so on both counts they're already facing headwinds. And with RBNZ expected to cut rates, it might put further pressure on NZD against USD.
Which could quite easily be transitory factors too.
Worth noting that the average analyst view is that dividends for FY21 will increase to 54.9 cps fully imputed which is quite a nice increase of nearly 4 cps on the mid point of the company forecast for FY20 and puts ZEL on a prospective gross yield at the theoretical ex divvy price I posted earlier this morning of 12.92% ! WOW !...I might retire early :)
I couldn't care less whether its fits the specification of some index or not. People and business's have to buy it. In the last oil crisis last decade when Oil hit $U.S.147 a barrel and fuel prices skyrocketed fuel volumes declined just 2%. That's not a typo, just 2%. What that tells us is that the demand is extremely robust and highly inelastic relative to price. Business's and consumers (other than the very small percentage of those that have an electric car) must buy it whether they want to or not, just they must buy food or electricity whether they want to or not. It is a consumer staple item and only those that can't think for themselves and rely on indices will come to a different conclusion.
Yield growing to 12.9% gross for FY21 is extraordinary. Not my job to sell it to you, you can either see the opportunity or just keep those blinkers on, your choice and your loss if you can't see it.
I think the yield is more durable than the GNE yield...ouch, that remark should make you think.