As BS would say.
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It's OK Balance. You don't have to have been around this forum for long to know what to do with bull's 'shock jock' 'down ramping ravings'.
The crazy thing is, all bull has to do is change his handle from 'bull' to 'bear', and his comments wouldn't draw the ire of anyone. A 'bear' handle would let everyone know exactly what flavour of comments to expect from him.
Investors need to keep in mind that the market is always looking at least 6 to 12 months down the track. So farmers not buying tractors today, leaving aside the fact that PGW do not sell tractors, is 'old news' for the market. NZ is still primarily a rurally lead market. So things on the farm have to improve first, before that money filters through to the cities to lift consumer malaise. That means if a hip city dweller is using their own day to day experience of judging where the country sits economically, that view is 18 months to two years behind where the market is pricing rural sector shares today.
Buying PGW shares this month, means I expect to see farming 'green shoots' just before the end of CY2024. I might be wrong about that. It could be a year away or even 18 months away. But the key takeaway this week for PGW is that conditions down on the farm are not materially worse than a month ago. And the board room fracas, that triggered a rapid share price fall, with Alan Lai is over. Yet the PGW share price has declined from circa $3 to circa $2 in a month, with very little change in the company and market fundamentals over that time. 'Mr Market' was either right to value the shares at $2 or $3. But he can't be right with both valuations. Currently, and taking into account that the shadow FY2022 and FY2023 were particularly good years which cast a expectant forward shadow that may never be matched, I would plump for the middle and say fair value right now is $2.50. That is where I expect the share price to sit by the end of the year, before the next farming cycle take off. So people buying PGW shares on the market today at $2 are being paid very well to wait until December. Therein lies my 'buying thesis' for accumulating PGW shares now. Yes no divvie now. But Alan Lai will ensue that dividends return sooner rather than later.
SNOOPY
PGW shareprice was $5.70 odd not that long ago
At $2.00 they must be a steal
I see that the annual Canterbury AnP show has been cancelled for November 2024.
The main reason given was tough economic conditions. They rely on advertising and sponsorship deals from the Agriculture sector to fund the event.
We are talking about the heartland of South Island farming here.
Alarm Bells?
That $5.70 was based on a couple of stellar years where all sectors of the rural economy grew in tandem (I don't ever recall that happening before), and there was takeover speculation swirling around the company (unjustified in my view, but I can't deny that it was there.) I don't see the future ducks ever lining up like that. So I think I can safely say:
"We will never see the price of PGW shares climbing to the highs of $5.70 and above ever again."
What will the high point be in the next business cycle? If $2 (or thereabouts) is the low, I would say $4 (or thereabouts) will be the high. If things overheat above $4.50, that would be a sell down signal. But even if $2 to $5.70 is a fantasy, $2 to $4 is still a good opportunity.
SNOOPY
Share price down to $1.80
Has it ever been this low in living memory?
Seems you not buying enough enough Snoopy to stop it sliding away ..but betcha you playing it smart and waiting for it to go even lower
The key question is "How long will this farming recession go on for?" Until we see some 'green shoots' we won't know when the upturn will happen. But it will happen. It is a matter of being patient. Because there is likely no dividend coming up, patient investors can afford to wait. I am currently looking at shares that are beaten down AND still paying dividends for my next share purchase.
SNOOPY
MarketClose report
Rural services company PGG Wrightson continued its torrid run, falling 8c or 4.28% to $1.79 and nearing its all-time low of $1.67.It’s a far cry from its peak of $21.50 in August 2008.
Suppose reporter showing how clever he is lol
imagine if NZ joins aukus :scared: farmer income might timber :scared: what would the stock price be then ?