Imagine if the AUKUS ties gave us a FTA with US. What would the price be then?
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Imagine if the AUKUS ties gave us a FTA with US. What would the price be then?
We can imagine all these things. The core point is governments like being re-elected. And I would ask the question, will there be more potential votes for them from:
a/ Our rural communities or
b/ from US government officials with military connections.
Our government ministers are not stupid, even if some opposition politicians and media critics make them out to be that way.
But as a seemingly now departed from this forum poster used to keep reminding us: "Nobody can accurately predict the future." That is why when you invest in something like PGW, you have it as part of your portfolio, not an all in 'red or black' bet.
SNOOPY
Have you included the possibility of cash strapped farmers also selling any share investments they may have to help them through these tough times.
This one is looking long and deep. So the up cycle may take longer to develop than previous cycles.
Im picking the sp to be $1.50 before too long.
Farmers generally don't own shares (as a rule) but have not investigated to what extent farmers have holdings in PGW. But looking at the top 20 holders or about 66% of the company does not look like farmers. So yes there may be some farmer investors, but I don't think they will have much effect on the SP.
Cycles may take longer and this one might be deeper but at $1.75 for me is a good entry point.
Farmers over the decades have been the backbone of New Zealand. Earn the export dollars and spread the cashflows to keep the lights on. And are all about diversification as farm income is up and down.
Hence, the big share portfolios. I am a farmer, and do not know a farmer who does not invest in other sectors.