Being the #1 on NZX was the interpretation of the journalist, not the words of Managing Director. I think there is a difference between them.
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Maybe he is predicting an easy ride to #1 with FBU being bought up and delisted or just moving to a sole ASX listing.
Interesting to see that Morningstar have just put a SELL rating on RYM today.
They have had the price at $3.50 for ages but today it went from 'Reduce' to 'Sell'.
Sorry for the negativity but MorningStar really haven't got a clue on this one.
Following their recommendations would have meant selling RYM years ago and I would have lost a fortune if I'd followed it.
gee a few got out today..and a few got in....huge volumn....even MET joined the party....albiet in a very minor way....listening to RNZ yesterday (1730 hrs Gaynor et al...ava on line)...was quite interesting....basically ..as I have said before...low % rates...shares go up ...and up....and.....cheers ....
Ryman investors shun sale tip
Instos still support RYM and rubbish Morningstar. Of course instos alraedy in will continue to support RYM - after all it is 5% plus of the index and who would risk their career on getting it wrong
Interesting guru Sam got it wrong - Tower's Sam Stubbs admitted Tower had called it wrongly and had been underinvested in Ryman for a long time. "They have played a near perfect hand" but there was a limit to how fast a company could grow, Stubbs said, and Tower preferred to invest in cheaper companies.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...-shun-sale-tip
Near the bottom of the above article:
"Shane Solly of fund manager Mint Asset Management said... ...Ryman was going through a growth spurt and entering Australia."
What growth spurt? For over 10 years it's been Steady As She Goes.
I would say its the recognition of the stock that's doing the growth spurt.
I guess if Shane Solly was referring to build-rate growth (it is unclear from the journalists press release) then he may have a point.
But even with the increased build-rate, as a %age of the RYM's existing assets this still pretty linear.
'Parabolic' or 'expodential'. No huge difference unless you're a mathematician. How about 'meteoric'?
Not all positive for Ryman atm....There are technical signs of a possible bull market correction in progress.
From the past ...RYM has suffered very slight corrections (less than 10%) and no advantage to be gained from exiting and re-entering...
However...remember the phrase "no trend last forever"...so attention should focus on that EMA50 around the 4.40 - 4.50 area.. if RYM past behaviour continues the share price should bottom out here...if not then your caution warning bells should start ringing.
The Caution bell starts ringing when ???
Exponential price rises are usually viewed as unsustainable and are only OK if the company can match it with exponential growth...when price outstrips growth within a bull market phase look out for extended breathers when the share price stalls and waits for the fundamentals to catch up.
This behaviour is common with Blue Sky Stocks. I briefly covered this topic on post 827 2nd October 2012 when I wrote about darling stocks reaching the point of being irrational. I used Mainfreight as an example with its share price stalling for 16 months after it broke above its trend channel
Usually a bull market correction is a good time to accumulate (average up strategy)...but its wise to wait for buy signals to confirm it was a correction.....so to avoid buying in at the top / market cycle change, or waiting a long time during its breather (could be many many months) and occur a portfolio opportunity loss..
The second chart is an up date to my previous chart ...showing the longer term share price history....its break above the trend channel and its look of exponential unsustainable? rise
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...pscbf0c32e.png
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...psa2ffb983.png