ALL you got to do is ASK.. they have alot of CUSTOMERS..
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Don't they only have the chicken taste if they've been hanging around too long?! I've never heard of it as an option.
As an aside, the share price has only started going up since I've started buying Pizzas again. I didn't think 6 pizzas at $6 each would make such a difference!
Apparently we have a very simple system here which if followed would have produced a near 500% return just by following three simple 'single indicator' rules.
Volume spike after a downtrend = BUY
Volume spike after an uptrend = SELL
Volume spike when in a trading range= IGNORE
The question of interest here is is not
'How did the hypothetical historical trader do'?
But
'Could the real trader take advantage of this single simple indicator system in real time'?
Take a look at that first trade, where our trader made 63% on his invested money. It is true that large volume spikes in trading volume are often good confirmation statistics for trend traders. It turned out that the first large volume spike marked a new uptrend beginning. But think of the alternative scenario. If the stock price had paused and moved downwards on another leg, that volume jump could equally well be seen as the starting point of a new downtrend, with the 'smart money' bailing out. I think even those with modest mathematical skills will appreciate that a 'pattern' cannot be extrapolated from a single data point.
Even the very simplest pattern (a straight line) requires at least two data points, a beginning point and an end point. Even then such a pattern is tentative until it can be confirmed with a third data point.
Moving back to our example then, our 'volume pattern rule' would only be confirmed as having some value after the third volume spike data point. Don't get me wrong, I am not saying that no real trader could have made trades 1 (63% profit), 2 (56% profit) or 3 (48% profit). Just that no real trader would have made these trades based on the simple three rule system that Phaedrus has outlined. And that it would take until this time to gain sufficient market data to ensure the 'three rule theory' could be verified by back testing.
That leaves the latest and ongoing share price rise in which our trader bought in at 65c and is ongoing as the share price rose to 86c today as the only real time trade that this simple 'three rule system' could take credit for. That gain so far amounts to 36%, which is a far cry from the near 500% that our hypothetical historical trader made.
Still 36% in just a few weeks is a gain not to be sneezed at and is certainly superior to the buy and hold investor who if holding RBD now would have endured the share price slide from the equivalent of $2 to just 86c. This buy and hold negative return has naturally enough been offset by dividends over the years summing to 95cps. IOW the dividends paid per share are higher than the market valuation of the company that is left. Clearly then no serious long term analysis of RBD can ignore dividends, as some who I group as the 'dividend deniers' claim.
But where does this simple 'three rule RBD system' leave us? So far it stacks up quite well against 'buy and hold', even if real returns are likely far less than the 500% claimed. But then who is advocating buy and hold at all costs? In fact such a strategy is just another, albeit very crude, market timing strategy where at some point in the future you assume the company will be worth more than at float time.
Alternatively, the strategy that I use can be best summed up as a 'value averaging strategy'. In simple terms this means ignoring the market completely, but having an investment budget so that you feed in smallish equal dollar amounts into your favourite share(s) every six months (for example). When the share price is low your fixed dollar investment will buy more shares. When the share price is high those fixed dollars will buy less. Thus over time most of your shares will be bought at lower prices without having to predict or rely on the direction of the market.
SNOOPY
SNOOPY, There is none as blind as those that refuse to see. You have a lot of learning to do my friend, open your mind to reality before you go under. Why you persist in your fundamental stupidity blind to the reality of an ever changing market is beyond me. If your analysis was worth anything surely you should have got rid of this dog whose share price is still playing catch up over the last decade. Macdunk
I'm not a holder of this stock and never have been but duncan's post prompted me to have a quick look at recent performance, check a few ratios etc. Current reality is that this stock has been one of the strongest performers on the NZ market! Both in FA & TA terms it's not a dog at the moment and hasn't been in the recent past.
Company bringing forward its reporting date.
Yet another great sign are things are 'clucking' along.
Restaurant Brands result out today. Usually it is a question of 'buy the rumour sell the fact' with these upbeat profit results. Yet with Restaurant Brands the share price continues to climb on the announcement!
The dividend increase in a climate of dividend cuts was I think the unexpected bonus. On an ongoing basis an annual dividend of 7cps represents a gross yield of 12% based on an RBD share price of 87c. That makes the share still cheap, or does it?
Both the Starbucks and Pizza Hut results were worse than I expected. Also no detail about this deal with YUM regarding the future of Pizza Hut. There has been a full year impairment write off of Pizza Hut goodwill totalling $3.7m. But that still leaves $16.4m of PH goodwill on the books. That doesn't gel with a business unit that I have calculated is losing nearly $9m per year, once all of those extraneous overheads are apportioned.
As for 'evaluating some (Pizza Hut store) sales to independent franchisees', does that sound realistic in this business climate? Master franchiser YUM are known for playing hard ball, so how well will tough talking Ted and 'Rocky' Russel stand up to them? According to today's release, in a month we will know the result of this bout.
Staying on the sidelines for now, but may be back with my cheque book in a month or so.
SNOOPY
discl: hold RBD
WE will call it a draw we posted at the exact time, Right a 12% yield try getting that at a bank or finance company just before it goes broke but not RBD people will not stop eating
and drinking coffee even if its only to wash the chicken down the way a head is clear so if the mob don't buy that's there fault as long as they keep sending the div`s the better..
Don'T forget you cant BUY this type of stock in Australia this a NZ special..
Bad news Bricks. The yield just dropped to 11%.
The good news is that is because the share price is now 91c! I always expected RBD to 'come right', but not as fast as this. At 91c the market capitalisation of the company is now $88.4m.
Question: How high does the market cap have to go before RBD is once again back into the NZX50? At that point we should see another round of buying, this time from the index fund managers.
SNOOPY
and hes baaaack :eek:
http://www.*************forum.com/
http://www.*************nz.blogspot.com/
Is Macdunk advocating the sale of an uptrending share? On of the few uptrending shares in the NZ market.
http://ichart.europe.yahoo.com/c/6m/r/rbd.nz
Duncan, once a dog doesn't necessarily mean always a dog! Circumstances change and no uptrend or downtrend lasts forever. RBD's recent enormous volume spike gave us all a "heads-up" for this stock. Some would have bought RBD on that alone, although it is not good practice to act on the basis of a single indicator. Not long after, however, the former resistance at 69 cents was overcome and RBD was in an uptrend. Then came the break of a trendline that had been unbroken for years. The long OBV trendline was next to be broken and a day later longterm oscillators fired off "Buy" signals - again, for the first time in literally years.
There is money to be made in this market, Dunc. Some really good short-term opportunities have been presenting themselves - regardless of what the long-term outlook may be. With due caution and a defined exit strategy there is no reason not to be dabbling. There is such a thing as being too cautious!
http://h1.ripway.com/78963/RBD414.gif
THAT large spike was the AMP 9% and as yet not been answered to the market what a
situation no one except the owners , KNOWS so why don't the PUBLIC..