Listening to CNBC a bit today & I don't think I've heard so much negative rhetoric in regards global markets outlook since probably 2008/9.
I'm hoping for a bounce & then I think I'll set a short position.
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Listening to CNBC a bit today & I don't think I've heard so much negative rhetoric in regards global markets outlook since probably 2008/9.
I'm hoping for a bounce & then I think I'll set a short position.
Yes. I agree with you. We can expect strong bounce. It is time to target wining individual stocks separated from the market. By April/May we could see strong market again.
Volatility plus,Dow up hundred ,and then down a hundred and then finished up a 50 points.Chartwise it looks like Zorro was on the tequila and licking the salt:p
DOW fall from last week stopped at the 61.8% fib retrace (on my chart) and has bounced back a tad from there. Those fibs aren't lies ... just don't know how they do it. ;)
DOW almost back to August lows. Unless we see oil bounce & hold I can't see this previous low holding. We may see a bounce here, but imo it will be a selling opportunity
I agree Daytr
Rotten day but a nice eventful end..The crucial must hold support 15400/15500 did hold and buyers came back in and late in the day the DOW rallied to be "only":t_up:;) 15767 -249 -1.55%
This may signal a bottom and a rally to commence ...but as I'm in the Bear market cycle camp I personally expect the next rally to be the sucker type...It could be a rally event such as a dead cat bounce but looking back to previous bear market cycle charts it wouldn't surprise me if the next rally was a couple of months long which could extend the life of the bear somewhat...If the extended rally does occur it would be destructive as the feel good factor returns, the "told you so" bull brigade will be trumpeting their expertise swaying the inexperienced herd to re-enter...
Things to watch with the next rally...Sucker rallies always fail at a resistance level..so never buy close to a resistance level not matter how rosy things look...
The chart below is very messy but I've tried to cram in a lot of information...I hope it is helpful...
Also I couldn't resist having a dig at the FA discipline...TAers are out of the market as TA has confirmed a Primary Bear tide (signaling a big chance that a Bear market cycle is operating)...They are waiting re-entry using "rowing" strategies thereby have perserved their capital...FAer (longer term) still in "sailing away" awaiting Bear Market confirmation (+20% drop) to occur (14680)....If it occurs there will be another breed of investors hitting the exits and this will cause a loss of buyer momentum hence another down wave, perhaps a stampede.. a +20% loss realised guaranteed..
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...20012016_4.png
Thanks hoop for disclosing your experience. You must be close to clocking the markets now lol. The time to go long stocks or property with leverage is when commodities put in a bottom and commentators say they want to wait to see more data to confirm the trend has turned.
A bit early to be thinking of a new bull market cycle Frostyboy....but commodities do hold a key..especially Copper but there are a large number of other leading indicators..I call them Ducks...and most have to line up in a row for confirmation..
Have a look at my 10th February 2009 post using a list of ducks to predict the end of that Bear market Cycle...The comments I got are also enlightening especially now with the knowledge of Hindsight..
The Saudis are looking to bankrupt the shale oil producers. We will see an energy related debt crisis before we see a turn round.
I shifted all my Super into cash and property recently and will sit tight.
Trying to get long gold as I would suggest this is about the only asset that will perform in such an environment.
Actually shorted DOW & Brent on this short covering bounce. Hopefully I haven't been premature.
Hmmm rather bold move there Daytr..It could just as easily turn around and rally up to 17000 (bull bear line & 61.8% fib retrace) after this latest wave down...VIX (26.7) does say expect volatility.... as Birmanboy says the market is bouncing all over the place.
.....but there is short term good news for ya..Today's DOW tested (16039) it's old 16000 support break (now Resistance) and failed ...was this your entry point???
Hmmm..another scenario which is also likely...maybe the down wave still has legs and this is the second breather pause in this downwave (C wave?)..I guess this is your favourite scenario..:D
@Hoop, would you be able to post your DJIA chart with the Fibs?
TIA
p.s. Twiggs analysis today is "has now broken primary support at 16000, signaling a primary down-trend. Reversal of 13-week Twiggs Money Flow below zero, indicating selling pressure, strengthens the warning. Target for the decline is 14000*."
Target calculation: 16000 - ( 18000 - 16000 ) = 14000
It's paid off so far. The negative sentiment in this market is palpable & I think any bounce will be sold.
My main concern is the conference in Davos & if world leaders came out in unison to tackle the situation then we could see a swift rally.
However without the Saudis on board in regards oil production I can't see this happening.