Quote:
Originally Posted by
fungus pudding
As a non-invested, casual observer of Blis, I'd question the assumption that the product will go well in the market. Has it ever gone well in any market?
Fair enough question from a totally cynical perspective, however, I only suggested that "the product goes OK in the market" - not well.
Total revenue in FY19 excluding Oz was around $7m so the products ARE being sold elsewhere.
For easy maths, let's assume a cost price per unit sold of $10. To generate $5 million of sales for BLT requires 5000 pharmacies to purchase an average of 100 units each over 12 months - that's 2 units per week per outlet. That's not exactly phenomenal market penetration, so volume in that order would appear to be feasible in a market of +/-25 million people.
Once again, these are very rough calculations, and done with no knowledge whatsoever of costs and margins.
My numbers are purely guesstimates and it will be interesting to see how things proceed this year. Some quarterly updates will be well received and hopefully will support an increasing SP over the next 12 months (though I note the hysteria of the past couple of days has subsided a little this morning - as expected).
As Gr8Day says, there are other market opportunities too with iNOVA that are not factored into my calculations.
I'm still very cautious (i.e. not investing any further) but optimistic that the iNOVA tie-up just might be a significant development for BLT.