Great posts Muse, thanks for sharing, I found them very interesting. Well done on your investments and I hope 2024 is another cracker year for you :)
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Great posts Muse, thanks for sharing, I found them very interesting. Well done on your investments and I hope 2024 is another cracker year for you :)
Yes as you allude to here, it's not the ability to forecast what happens that matters, it's the ability to forecast better than the market.
Here you are saying that 'I can see it playing out now' but you could also see it playing out last year. I guess you mean you are more certain now. You are saying that you are financially positioned to profit from being able to forecast a deeper recession than what is currently priced in. If bonds in fact do well and you take capital gains then you have to do something with them. Bond yields will then be low, can you get them into equities cheaply? Or will the forward looking market have priced you out?
For me there is no chance at all of making money out of predicting a recession this year, let alone predicting a deeper one than the market can see given the reasons you highlight that anyone can plainly see.
I don't understand going through all of this when you are currently getting an extremely safe and long duration 10% plus return handed to you on plate!
If you are positioned for a deeper recession than the bond market expects ( this alone is a massive call) then what if there isn't even a recession?
Well it depends. The company still has to have good fundamentals & outlook but sure the macro could be why you look at a certain sector and then try and select a company within that sector you think had the credentials to perform.
It could be the AI space, Gold or other commodities. With lower interest rates where the discount rate is a big factor in the valuation, could be another area to look at.
From another thread - Rob was kind enough to put this in big bold letters
Rob, I’d love to praticipate in this discussion but as I have no idea of my net worth (or even $ value of shares) at the beginning and end of 2023 even if I was inclined to I can’t calculate my ‘2023 Return’ but I’m sure it’s a positive number
I gave up counting such things years ago and that makes me feel good…..and guite honestly I don’t really care. Leave that to the accountant to sort out.
My Mum always kept reminding me that the love of money can be the root of evil ….and that while recognising the role that money can play in our lives it is important to use it wisely and keep focusing on what is truly important and avoiding the trap of greed and materialism etc
Suppose some would say I’m lucky to be one of those ‘boomer’ generation of accidental millionaires …..starting with very little except loving parents and family to where I’m at today …but would modestly say I have to a some extent have had a say in my destiny.
So Rob …all I can say is the ‘2023 Return’ for me has been another satisfying and rewarding year….and with that I hope that you respect me for that and don’t hassle / deride me any more
Great job Winner!...has to be " post of the year"