Ditto around my traps. It's impossible to know exactly , but it seems from my observations that the Kermits really gave Labour a boost with their tax nonsense. Look at the traditional farming/blue areas.
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With all her new blue voters she will have to keep in the center to reward and keep them so this is bad news for the Greens IMO, status quo for the market as there was little uncertainty in the outcome.
I'd like to think you are right, if you pardon the pun, but I still dont think she will treat oil drilling and mining favourably.
In my view, NZ needs these income sources, to pay for all the welfare largesse .
All things being equal, the most money will be made by the MM, BP, HA, Bandidos and Comancheros.
Unfortunately, they don’t have a listing on the NZX.
Less facetiously, it would seem prudent to investigate unlisted, new companies that will reap the financial rewards coming from the DHB and education overhaul/revolutions. Plenty of cash is going to those areas over the next 3-5 yrs and there is much empire building to be had.
Good points nztx.
While primary produce such as fruit falls to the ground unpicked, with the resultant loss of revenue & tax base, Rangitahi are sitting around as a drain on the taxpayer, being indoctrinated by the likes of the Maori party & Labours Maori caucus that they have been colonised, but are really the landlords of the nation.
What will Willie Jackson, the minister of Employment, have to say about that, or more to the point, what will he do about it?
Some thoughts to start with
EBO - Increase focus on Life sciences, assist with COVID vaccine & response once available, more pharmaceuticals access / spend and increase health grants
ABA - Increase dental funding
FBU - Benefit from proposed Infrastructure $bn spend (assuming FBU can profitably deliver...) across initiatives such as light rail, LGWM etc
CEN / MEL -could benefit from positive contract negotiations with Rio re Smelter. Tailwind also from lower interest rates, so yield more attractive. Support 100% renewable goal (MEL 100% already?)
MFT - Ongoing focus to keep NZD low v USD, so will increase offshore earnings. Essential Service - Any continued lockdowns and systemic shift to online drive logistics delivery and warehousing
FRE- Similar to MFT less so the NZD angle.
ATM/FPH. Some benefit from ongoing weakened NZD. FPH assist with covid vaccine response once available?
ZEL? - Speculative upside... They "potentially" have the infrastructure/expertise to support the Govt Hydrogen refuelling network proposed approach and 100% renewable goal. Could be a way for them to transition away from hydrocarbon (or at least be seen to..) and position for future
EVO - $1.7bn in Education. Increase funding for pay parity. "We've seen significant increases in funding for ECE, we're going to continue that - Hipkins". Additional tailwinds from flow through of Te Reo education funding
Others in Education sector? - Workforce incentive allowance directed into training and re-training (eg due COVID displacement). A big focus on upskilling, certification etc
Cannabis Companies? - eg CBD. Tailwind should referendum pass, regulation implemented, controlled manufacturer and distribution
RBD - Increased Govt welfare, flow through to consumer = continued / more spend on cyclical foods.
AWF - The "Business of Govt" will have more funding and more allocation through to Private sector via consultancy, advisory etc. Expect increase in resource demand and contractors into Govt.
Great work Hamish, thanks for the thought & work that went into your post.
So a couple of hours in, infrastructure companies are doing well, gentailers not so much. Early indication of money in one direction and compliance costs in the other?
No not at all ...but as long as the Greens don't have much say I'll be happier to see how Cindy and Team drive forward with their plans and prob hit a wall of reality in time esp. around employment + Debt to GDP ... I'm sure the gap between the Rich and poor will increase even more in 3yrs ... is the way of Globalism...
In the shorter-term, I'm more concerned with the implications of the US election outcome. Either way, I suspect there will be internal conflict which will not bode well for markets.
By the time that settles down, no doubt it will coincide with the various tinkering that is expected (and ostensibly supported by a number of business owners) by Labour.
2021 will be another interesting year. Anything is probably better than 2020 though!