Pump prices drop soon ......thanks to Jacinda for making them a tad scared
Printable View
Yep do a lot of walking. Its the best way to lose weight btw. Hey there is an interesting book out ive just read and done a 3 day cleansing diet with. "The Plant Paradox" very interesting ideas and research for a healthy lifestyle.The green avo and spinach and lettuce and mint and lemon juice and ice and water smoothie worked a treat.
I see Z Energy majority-owned Flick is in the news a lot at the moment. As a Z Energy shareholder (albeit very small) I wondered if it was a good idea adding Flick or at the very least spending as much as $46M on it. Flick hasn't really added many customers since May last year and it appears that a fair percentage of customers seem to head for the door at the first sign of spot price trouble rather than ride it out. I like the idea of a spot price option but just at this stage New Zealanders don't seem keen on it. Having said that, Flick seems to be a pretty slick, innovative operation with good customer service.
I'm attending that Craigs Investor Road Show next month featuring Mercury (don't hold), Summerset and Z Energy. I"ll be interested to hear why they thought it was a good idea to purchase Flick, I'll keep an open mind. Maybe doing something really old fashioned like paying off more debt would have been a better use of the cash. I'll be interested to hear what they say.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12150226
profit down quite a bit and outlook suggests more (less profit) to come... any comments? it was worst then i thought but maybe divestment might be the way to go?
This doesn’t seem to be good news
http://www.sharechat.co.nz/article/8...s-drop-21.html
usually profit cut comes in 3... so this is the 2nd time? maybe one more to go...
Last year this fandangled ebitdaf thing $449m
First guess for F19 was $450m
Next guess F19 $420m ($30m lower)
Latest guess $400m ($20m lower)
Think I am justified in using the bottom of the range ...the top of the range is to give you warm fuzzies and a bit of hope,
Yes, more lower guesses to come I reckon
Wow, terrible beating for us shareholders today - down almost 7% and counting and with the threat of further regulation just around the corner, who knows where this will end up.
I'm feeling really "fleeced" today.
My broker for one has a buy on ZEL with t/p reduced to re $7.72 with div forecast at half a buck.
The sharemarket is a weighing machine , holding looking to top up.
Not sure what Labour are on about or, more importantly, what they can do. NZ pump prices are the same (or even slightly lower) than average world pump prices.
"prices for New Zealand from 23-Jul-2018 to 29-Oct-2018. The average value for New Zealand during that period was 2.43 New Zealand Dollar ... For comparison, the average price of gasoline in the world for this period is 2.45 New Zealand Dollar. ..."
I doubt it too :)
Plenty of reasons for Z's profit fall, as outlined in the CEO's briefing. The one that could/should have been managed by the company was the drop in market share, especially in petrol. Perhaps the switch in supermarket affiliation to Foodstuffs from Countdown isn't a big success with customers despite the significant sales of fuel to the former.
Yeh thats the one that got me changing...
I'm really having a gutsful of loyalty marketing and plastic cards from retailers and hookups between petrol, supermarket etc
So its quite possible others are too.
'Waitomo' are making small inroads as well.
Does everyone use the app 'Gaspy' to find cheapest petrol?
crude down 15% from the highs last couple weeks , nz dollar up from lows.
mike bennetts comments
“Margins typically come under pressure when crude prices rise steeply, as prices at the pump lag behind the increases in the price of crude oil, and customers are sensitive to new, higher price points.”
wow so now the margins will be enormous and the price at the pump hasnt even fallen back to comparable levels lol . even fatter margins
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU1811/S00021/z-energy-cuts-guidance-a-second-time-as-1h-earnings-drop-21.htm
Nov 4. (Reuters) - The oil market’s two-year bull run is running into one of its biggest tests in months, facing a tidal wave of supply and growing worries about economic weakness sapping demand worldwide...
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-global-oil-rally/oil-rally-faces-tidal-wave-of-supply-idUKKCN1N904U
If their competitors also increased their prices as a result of increasing oil prices, it could be that Z is being generous by offering discounts?
However generally that annoys me too. Z is not the only retailer that does that. Isn’t it widespread throughout retailing? Does there need to be a tightening up of general legislation?
ComCom have a guideline on price discounting here: https://comcom.govt.nz/consumers/dea...rvices/pricing
there is another aspect of the Z discounting that worries me.When they have a special (like 10cents off).The price of fuel is reduced on their signage by the 10cents,you fill up then find out you don't get the discount without producing a flybuys card.What happens if you don't have one,do you ask for the petrol to be taken out!
I'm back in on this one after 4 yrs, it's way oversold.
Hamish Rutherford might need to update this article, after the last couple of days. We're way past a $500M loss now.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/108...more-than-500m
I wonder what industry is next for Government attention? Hard to know where to invest just now.
A major rort being perpetrated on N.Z. motorists now by both Cindy's kindy and the fuel companies. Absolutely scandalous when oil has been tracking down steadily for weeks now and the currency steadily heading higher. You can see why people are updating to more fuel efficient vehicles with blatant highway robbery going on left right and center. Pity the poor consumers who have to use 98 Octane fuel which is another scandal all of its own with the premium over 91 often being more than 30 cents per liter ! No wonder I can't get much as a trade-in for my Chrysler SRT8 V8 that drinks 98 Octane like a fish on steroids.
Today’s announcement with supplementary commentary meant to ‘clarify’ some confusion about what was in previous announcements
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...267/289820.pdf
If anything (to stupid punters like me) it seems even more obtuse than before ....maybe strategy to utterly confuse punters (sorry investors) akin as to how they confuse motorists with their pump pricing.
Red flag for me
No wonder share price still falling
Suppose you need to believe that F19 divie will be between 32 cents and 41 cents ...so expect a final divie between 19.5 cents and 28.5 cents ..yes?
Do you mean interim div in a few weeks, if so its 12.5c. No shortage of folks buying guzzlers unfort.
Double-cab Ute Nation | RNZ - Radio NZhttps://www.radionz.co.nz/programmes/two-cents-worth/.../double-cab-ute-nation
think one can assume that divs wont be the same all the time now ( be like nz refining ... lumpy ) why because The policy is to pay out 90-100% of underlying free cash flow, calculated as net cash fromoperations less maintenance capex and debt repayments.
and all this is based on the oil price which we know is highly volatile and that will affect the figures of maintenance capex .
Plenty of buying support around the $5.20 mark, I reckon the bottom is pretty much in.
Sussed the ‘clarification’ announcement but whether it all eventuates will be another story
Might be wrong but to ensure a ‘reasonable’ dividend it appears as if they not going to reduce debt (leverage) as much as they have intended.
Going back through recent announcements they seem to have a habit of having to correct / clarify things on a regular basis .....not good for such a large company
So...save a tired dog a long read, do you think the current price after another drop today is good value or have we got more to go to the downside ? A real quick and dirty look at the gross dividend yield (assuming divvies are at the half way point and fully imputed) suggests 9.75% gross. Not too bad but this industry has very slowly building headwinds over a long period of time, (kind of the opposite to the long term steadily building tailwinds the retirement villages enjoy eh mate). Plenty of people have been burned before chasing yield in industries with long term headwinds.
That said I suppose if you pull out all the one-offs and mess up's the normalized gross yield for FY20 could be quite a bit higher ?
Was hoping Winner would give me the "good oil" (you see what I did there) :) but you're having a bob each way here me ol mate, bit like your bets on the Melbourne cup this afternoon eh. TA looks shocking. Possibly oversold as Couta1 suggests, (is there some relativity theory here Couta1 ? I ZEL = 2 Turners maybe ? (both pretty mangy looking mutts aren't they !)
FY19 and 9.75 % gross yield (mid point) is not enough to get me invested in a long term headwinds stock so I guess I have to take a really deep dive into the results presentation and form a view on FY20 earnings and sustainability thereof going forward and gross yield http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...101/289637.pdf...or much easier I could just let the average analyst numbers do the talking.
Pretty interesting yield based on average analyst forecast, using a reference price of $5.175 this morning, $5.30 less almost immediate return of 12.5 cps for imminent dividend = $5.175) for FY20 of 9.9% net (13.7% gross) and for FY21 11% net (15.3% gross)
https://www.marketscreener.com/Z-ENE...15/financials/
Been reading one or two articles lately about the pressure on battery manufactures to get the necessary resources for electric car batteries and how the rate of decline in the cost of manufacture has started to slow. Maybe mass production of electric vehicles with decent range at an affordable price is a bit further out than I previously thought...or is that forecast FY21 yield just drawing me in like a beagle to a juicy bowl of dog food ? Hmmmmm In for a small parcel this morning...the dividend hound in me can't resist those forecast yields !
A lot of one-off's impacted the first half. Probably oversold a bit but TA looks dreadful so caution is definitely warranted !
I'm a bit concerned that Z has gone from being a favourite of patriotic NZ'ers (buying from a NZ company) to outright dislike (and hence avoidance) for price gouging and that forecasts based on history may not eventuate. Sure, there is a lot of headroom within the current earnings for the continued dividend but if the sentiment goes completely against them this will only reduce and may affect payout ability. Quite a bit of debt I recall from an earlier analysis.
Waitomo is changing the model with self serve - petrol only sites - do you really need a coke and a pie from where you buy petrol if it saves you 12c a litre?
Beagle — re your comments re electric vehicles
October new car sales were a record and I noted this sentence in the report “Sales on new electric cars aren't registering and are below 'rounding error' levels”
Another great call from guru Couta
So about $5.20 was the low
All aboard the train or back the truck up or whatever the phrase us .....be 6 bucks again in no time
And they say new bicycle sales aren’t growing as fast as new vehicle sales ...go the car and stop putting in stupid expensive cycle ways
As long as it doesn't turn out like his $3.80 call on Turners :blush: we'll be alright. FY21 divvies, 5,000 shares would basically square many people's fuel costs including mine back to zero. (5,000 shares x 56.9 cps = $2,845 per annum) Natural hedge is one way of looking at it. Easy enough to do the same thing with power companies too. Funny how you start thinking as you start approaching retirement isn't it lol
https://www.marketscreener.com/Z-ENE...015/consensus/ All those guru analysts on average reckon its worth $7.14.
Sell down does look overdone based on my own analysis I reached the same conclusion as another guru on here who used the seat of the pants theorem to arrive at the same answer.
Mrs Beagle wanted asked me over lunch what I've been up to today and I said I'd been busy buying Z Energy shares. Can't go wrong with consumer staples she replied.
I don't normally listen to her comments on shares but I think she has a good point about it being a defensive consumer staple.
Analysts reckon its worth a lot more. Guru Couta1 reckons its oversold as do I. Company insiders buying on market in the last two days as well.
Gross yield of 15.5% forecast for FY21. Last time I saw something that juicy in terms of yield was HLG when it was $2.70 ! If ZEL can start paying around 50 cps per annum or slightly more in due course it is highly likely we will see a significant recovery in the SP in my opinion.
Hard to understand why the market has whacked this down by around the same percentage as the profit decline as though the reasons for that decline are permanent, when quite clearly they're not. Opportunity knocks ?
Who doesn't like half a V8;)
It's Gutometer Couta not Guru.Lol
LOL thankfully some modern highly efficient V6 engines are making similar power figures to what V8's were making a decade or so ago :) 2 liters is only for milk bottles :D
:lol:
Bought some more this morning. Can't help myself at the thought of a 15.5% yield....could probably run a couple of V12 engines for free now off the dividends lol
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...464/290054.pdf
Yet another insider buying more on market. Follow the smart money, 3 insider notices in the last two days. Brokers all like it and think its worth heaps more. Super guru gutometer Couta1 likes it, I do, heck even Mrs Beagle likes it and she is never ever wrong...well not that she ever admits too anyway lol
Massive share volumes lately flushing out all the remaining disaffected shareholders. Back up the truck, what could possibly go wrong :D
CTX (Caltex) and VEA (Shell ) on the ASX at 1 year lows (listing low for VEA from july) .
CTX PE 9.55 D/Y net 4.37% ( source ASB)
One should ask why holders would dump 18m shares in last few days if stock had such huge potential
imo another PUMP n' DUMP ..............as if market needs more rollers coaster rides
Do not hold
^^^ZEL's new dividend strategy is better in your hands than our's and the number of one off's in the latest half year result significantly disappointed the market. Market was expecting an interim dividend about 4-5 cps above the 12.5 cps announced. This stock has transformed into an investment where investors are primarily focusing on yield. I think ICE engines will be around for far longer than some of the EV Evangelists believe and ZEL will provide a very high yield for the foreseeable future. Forecast yield of 15.5% gross when it got down to $5.20 was too good to be true and couldn't last. Some people saw it and could understand that and others were too slow...you can lead a horse to water but you can't make it drink. Those quick on their feet will be reaping the rewards for years to come. Not a pump and dump as far as I am concerned. In my late 50's I want stocks that are going to make my life very comfortable going forward and for me that means adding more retired into the term semi-retired. Very high yield in a consumer staple is a great relatively safe way to enhance my lifestyle going forward. I can be all over the country for free with the dividends especially with a new ride arriving for Christmas that uses about 40% less fuel than the last one.
zel is a trading stock , been trading it for ages when it was in the range from 7 - 8. out when it broke down. last few days is a oversold bounce in a down trend now , downtrend because the company fundamentals are for a declining legacy business and the new div policy reflects this. not a stock i would plan to hold for increasing divs over time
Average broker forecast divvy for FY21 is about 57 cps fully imputed, (about 79 cps gross). I doubt anyone expects that will grow much over time, certainly I don't. Some people like myself are buying for the yield and eventually when yield starts to tail off due to mass uptake of EV's...well...if I live that long I will consider I've had a fair innings and be happy to address the issue at that time probably by buying an EV myself and lowering my living costs.
Buying in 520’s (or for some even less) was always good buying
Now approaching 570 but not too late to join the party as heaps more upside here.
One broker has a target of 830 — that’s 40% upside
And don’t forget that divie if that’s your game .....some reckon a 16% yield in a couple of years .....can’t get much better than that
Margins have gone down as is clear for all to see in their latest half year report. Cindy claiming that her recent 15 cents per liter of extra recent taxes, (for Auckland inclusive of the new Auckland regional fuel tax) is not to blame for the recent surge in prices is completely farcical. Nobody believes her and she has lost huge amounts of political capital over her blatant hypocrisy. Yet another one of her limp wristed wet bus ticket review committee's will be formed, what are we up to now ? 149 of them ?
I think that $1.06 that's been reported is the national average. If you're "lucky" enough to live in Auckland you can add 11.5 cents per liter to that for their new Auckland regional fuel tax, a whopping total of $1.175 per liter in tax for Aucklanders for every liter of fuel consumed !
Some market commentators say the rest of the country (mostly Wellington because no competition) is actually paying that Auckland levy ....companies just adjusting national prices to cover it ..as long as they pass the necessary Auckland bit to the govt Jacinda is happy.
Probably something in that mate... As long as Cindy gets her taxes...from your favorite new news outlet. https://www.moneymorning.co.nz/why-j...ol/2018/11/06/
I think that people on here ought to stop bleating about how bad the fuel taxes are. I would argue that the fuel taxes are the most efficient and equitable tax that we pay:
- You get to choose whether you pay -- if you dislike them a lot then take the bus or ride a bike
- For those that must drive a vehicle you get to choose how much you pay -- you can elect to have a more efficient vehicle, share rides or live closer to work
- At least some of the taxes go back to benefit the road users -- the more you use the greater the benefit
Contrast that to GST and income tax:
- I don't have the choice not to pay
- I have little control over how much I pay
- There is likely to be an inverse correlation between tax payers and users of government services -- those of us that pay the most taxes are likely to be recipients of fewer of the services paid from taxes
And finally, given that there is ample evidence that fossil fuel use is driving climate change, we should be thankful for the high prices (and taxes) as they will drive innovation and efficiencies and maybe extend the liveable life of the planet by a few years.
All good points although you overlooked that people buy their fuel and pays heaps more tax with net income after that's already been taxed.
Then they pay GST on all that excise tax from net income that's already been taxed and then they levy Aucklanders with a special regional fuel tax but everyone else is exempt. On top of that we pay carbon taxes.
The gall of Cindy to say Government taxes are not the cause of high fuel prices !
Enough I say...I have a new more fuel efficient vehicle on order which burns ~ 40% less taxes..opps I mean fuel.
Non-Aucklander have no interest in our taxes fixing Auckland's transport problems -- surely that is one of the fairest taxes in existence -- paid only by Aucklanders and with the proceeds going straight back to assist the Auckland taxpayer. Your roading costs need to be paid from somewhere, if not the targeted tax you will pay via rates or general taxes.
The 10 billion dollar a year black economy would say that many are very skilled in avoiding paying GST on income. PS-Not everyone believes that burning fossil fuels has any influence on climate change.
Forgot that in addition to all the above mentioned taxes we pay ACC levies on vehicle registration, plus GST on them, Road user charges for diesel vehicles plus GST thereon and if all that isn't enough the roading network is so underdeveloped we have to pay road tolls for certain sections of the road as well. How many taxes is that !
But lets have an enquiry into ZEL and the other energy companies because they're the ones fleecing us...come on, its beyond pathetic !
Whoever coined the phrase "Cindy's Kindy" is dead right, ever notice how kindergarten children always try and blame someone else when things go wrong ?
Wonder if Santa might also bring me an electric bike this year ?
Sounds like you're in the doghouse(kindy kennel) yourself lol
I would argue that the 1.5 million Aucklanders are paying the lions share of excise duty intended for maintenance of the national roading network and are cross subsidizing the national network of roads which are predominantly far less frequented than Auckland roads. If Aucklanders excise tax had been reinvested back into Auckland roads there would not be the requirement for local politicians to engage in their pet projects which will by and large be useless to the vast majority of the regions road users.
Anyway...rather than hijacking this thread, (sorry folks) perhaps we should have a debate on all the "wonderful" new ways the government is taxing us (despite promising no new taxes in their first term) in a separate thread in the off market section.
Mind you Beagle WGTN and the SI are still paying as much or in most cases more than those living in AK even with your extra tax.
Another recent change has Z being a bit a price leader in some areas rather than more expensive. A recent talk on an NZSA evening had Caltex described as the cheaper brand of the two with Z as the more expensive, especially with its forecourt service. This appears to have gone by-the-by.
If you check the Gaspy app out . The price differential has closed right up .Waitomo Foxton 2.18,Levin - Gull , Caltex , Mobil , BP 2.21, Z 2.23 , in Wgtn , Z and Mobil Kilbirnie 2.23 , Mobil jville cheapest @ 2.19.
Discount cards the difference?
Stop speaking for everyone beagle, speak for yourself alone. Maybe bury that bone and sit on it guarding without sleeping,you've gnawed long enough.
The more reviews the better imo after 9 years of complacency by the previous nocaretakers . New broom doing some sweeping.The hypocrisy here from someone who bags it then buys it.But thats par for the course, many times.
Fuel taxes are an unfair* regressive tax. They disproportionately hit poorer taxpayers, whose transport costs often comprise a greater percentage of disposable income/ assets. Poorer taxpayers often have to live further from their place of work and may need to shift house frequently.
*Good quality roads increase the value of all real estate serviced by the roads. Consequently it should be property owners who should contribute more to roading costs.
Everyone likes to bleat about fuel prices. Its a hot topic of conversation especially in Auckland so get over it and by the way I only ever speak for myself. Some more real analysis on your part rather than critique of others wouldn't hurt.
ZEL are consistently the dearest in surrounding suburbs here and I can't help wonder if their strategy of forecourt concierge and factoring in those labour costs to their pricing isn't somewhat conceptually flawed. I think in this market that people simply want the cheapest price they can get.