was pretty lucky , shorted again at 0.7155 last nite just before i went to sleep...
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was pretty lucky , shorted again at 0.7155 last nite just before i went to sleep...
Arco, yes noted thanks, I redrew neckline using line chart last night - then reverted chart to a HLC - last nights top was about 5 pips under perfection
Xerof
doubled up at .7133 , set stop to break even and it just got taken out hahah.... the kiwi is a shocker
still holding the euro short from 1.2335 tho
Kiwi is really having a life of its own it seems to me....
You're fighting our ludicrously hawkish CB ... honestly, they'll be easing by Q4 '04 at this rate ...
Kiwi will have its waterloo when the Q1 data starts undershooting ... course commodity strength isn't helping shorts either, ditto the Aussie ...
Peat, yr post on the AUD thread refers
I still see the H&S pattern, with current northerly progress still retesting the neckline, now residing around 7200 area, based on EOD data. BUT, I also see an inverse H&S pattern which has formed below the neckline of the larger H&S over the past few weeks, so need to carefully watch price action in early 72's for a continuation of uptrend. i.e. a failed H&S.
Interested in others views on this
Xerof
Morning Xerof
I mentioned possible General Gann resistance
could halt progress circa 7202. The overnight
high was 7197, so we could see a little hesitation
at this point. Major Gann will muster his troops
more to the North and I expect he will be almost
impenetrable at co-ordinates 7324.
Yes I see that little Inverse Head and Shoulders
you mentioned. I will have a word with Dan Druff
about this, however if I use the normal H & S
yardstick it amazingly projects the action to circa
7350........not a million miles from Major Gann's
position at 7324.
:D Keep smiling
PS. How much is my $20 worth now in the Fund of Funds.
Well lets see now, after fees for entry, your share of the launch party costs, Colonel Gann's appearance fee, and that first dumb deal I did on your behalf..... er, can I have your address to send you the bill for $8.60:D:D
I'm in the final throes of getting documentation out to my 'habituals, close business associates etc', then wait for their cheques to stop bouncing, and away we go.
Thanks for comments on NZD. Maybe sell 7200 with very tight stop and reverse perhaps - if one HAS to have a trade on.
Xerof
nice little cascade there
Looks a bit like the original H&S has developed as expected - dammit, side tracked today and missed all the activity
But see trendline support at 7080 in the interim, but v limited bounces now I feel. Otherwise might have to chase it lower....
Xerof
from a fundamental perspective... tomorrow's NZ GDP is pushing the NZDUSD down a little due to negative expectations... I have no idea what GDP figure will be... though if it's negative or in line with expectations the tone could be set as bearish for the next couple of days.
POSSIBLY (just my thoughts)
as well as that the FOMC meets on 29/30 and may raise interest rates again, which tends to be bearish for the NZDUSD... so pricing of that in could help strengthen the bearish tone. added to that the possibility of stop-loss price cascade we could see some good downward movement over the next few weeks?
(DISC though i own a few puts i.e. i have a bearish bias so i could be unconsciously ignoring the up side, or over imagining the downside)
by the way, some of today's action was instigated by the current account data for NZ - which was somewhat bearish
And I was certain it was all Major Gann's fault :D
If anyone took the low risk trade around the Gann
resistance mentioned 21/6............
General Gann resistance could halt progress circa 7202
...there will be a nice 150 pips in the bag right now.
GTA
arco
arco
GTA ?
Good Trading All
good trading ahead
Gann trounces allcomers
That Major Gann deserves a promotion Arco
Xerof
My limit order missed getting triggered by 2 pips :(Quote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
And I was certain it was all Major Gann's fault :D
If anyone took the low risk trade around the Gann
resistance mentioned 21/6............
General Gann resistance could halt progress circa 7202
...there will be a nice 150 pips in the bag right now.
GTA
arco
Arggggg!
Lake
One solution is to scale several orders in at
different rates around the target.
e.g. 7192/7197/7202/7207/7212
Slam
GTA
Gone to Australia :D
.......will the last person to leave
please switch off the light.
Good Trading All
Great Trousers Arco
Xerof
Come back....all is forgiven
we miss your FA. :D
NZD doing a wee bounce, may provide a sell opportunity if it's decent, for those going short:)
And that was it[:0]Quote:
quote:Originally posted by slam
NZD doing a wee bounce, may provide a sell opportunity if it's decent, for those going short:)
Arco
I'm here, I'm here
200 day EMA right here at 7037, looking in grave danger of breaking, but that H&S I've talked about ad nauseum appears to have successfully repelled upside attempts, with not inconsiderable assistance from General Gann and his troops.
Assuming by FA you mean fundamental, and not fat a#se, well hearing from interbank traders of stops under 7030, i.e on a break of 200 day EMA:D:D
Xerof
wolfe pattern (or one eyed trouser snake) mentioned on General Chit Chat seems to be in play[8D]
I COULD be wrong (that is not uncommon:):)) but this area might hold for a while - profit taking before weekend by locals, proximity of EMA200. If it does, sell rallies back to 7075/80, where one should add to those excellent shorts from higher up. I'm not advocating going long - think we'll see an attack on sub 7030 in tonights twilight zone.
Xerof
Xerof
Assuming by FA you mean fundamental, and not fat a#se
Who would say such a thing....Only a very cheeky person! [:I]
or someone who perhaps is singularly holy
Good call on the bounce there Xerof[8D]
Well, have to follow my instincts - sold at 7075. s/l just above 7100
Xerof
added at 7110 s/l on both 7130
Pssssst, hey Peat, that last post you did on the other channel last night quoting your platforms NZD comments - of course you know who the 'tentative swiss' interest was don't you? - GCM.
BTW, I would suggest the banks were VERY pleased to see him, as trying to execute large s/l orders on a Friday afternoon in NYK spells disaster for customer relationships....
which platform do you use Peat?, as that comment was right up with the play, in both accuracy and timing - possibly one of the clearers making supportive comments, being very keen to ensure nothing was going to be triggered late in the day
Watch out next week - its 'gunna' happen
I also took back half my position at 7047
nice weekend to all - it's pissing down here today
Xerof
I use GFT Dealbook FX2 and yes the news feed is quite good.
I dont know who the GCM you refer to is tho. Care to clarify?
I have reduced my Kiwi shorts now still holding something and will probably add again if it spikes next week. Shame I didnt do that last night - Arco's quote about being brave sticks in my throat sometimes hahah
Glad you didnt get stopped out last night Xerof. I was thinkin of you :)
gold c.... m..... - put it into context now? remember a few weeks ago he stated he used XXX (a swiss bank) to clear all his non AUD and YEN transactions? So who was buying it around 7044? and AUD around 7669 and stopped the rot for the rest of the day....
cheers
Xerof
nope that doesnt precisely clarify... tho I'm getting your general drift... Seems like there must be some reason why you're not spelling it out... no matter....
Good trades...
5th leg count circa .6920:) completing the wolfe
Need a 4th bounce first;)
Cheers
Slam
Morning Slam
I presume you are talking about Wolfe Wave.
What date is your start point?
Regards
arco
Morning arco
circa 30th may
OK - what are you basing your 5th wave
projection figure on ?
from 1 to 4
I should clarify that the 30th was count of 1
http://www.nzwebservice.co.nz/4xchar...-USD Daily.gif
Slam
Yes I can see where you are coming from,
however I could see the 5th wave ending
lower.
Where did you learn your Wolfe Wave ?
and has it worked for you?
arco
arco
http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../05/040405.asp
First time I've found this pattern and so far on this trade it's working fine.
My end point may be a bit out as my charts, as you can see, don't allow room for future plotting :(
will follow this one as it looks like the real deal
Cheers
Slam
Nice work Slam,
I don't know which charting package you have but if you want some fresh air on the RHS of your charts, go to view, periods, then change leading space to whatever suits
you can also adjust the periods shown on any chart using periods - you'll find it in the same box as leading space
Yes looks like selling rallies is the mode for a while now
Still short from 7075, added last night at 7037 and 7036 just to keep an interest....
Xerof
Hi Slam
I have experimented with WW in the past
but I did not find they worked well with FX.
(I think they work OK on some of the indices).
The NZD pattern is again not quite perfect based
on the rule Waves 3 and 5 are usually 127%
or 162% (Fibonacci) extensions of the previous
channel point.
Anyway, patterns are rarely perfect, so it
will be interesting to see what happens.
arco