This doesn't seem sustainable if it is true. But if the rest of the world is doing it, why shouldn't we. Or that is the argument I hear in the paper from experts and economists.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...-rug-pull-soon
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This doesn't seem sustainable if it is true. But if the rest of the world is doing it, why shouldn't we. Or that is the argument I hear in the paper from experts and economists.
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/...-rug-pull-soon
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/129...e-on-wednesday
RBNZ target 4.5% OCR ..thats 7%+ morg rates .... massive recession coming for NZ ...
Maybe not China central bank may have just started cutting rates if this article is correct. If the rest of the world is doing it, why shouldn't we?
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ch...-yields-plunge
Also saw this pop up, only 98.1% of property sales in the three months to June 2022 made a profit. Oh my god, cuts rates now Adrian. And of those 98.1% of sales, in dollar terms, the median resale profit also dropped to $370,000 from $418,000 in quarter one 2022.
Only $370,000 profit, although details are light regarding time held etc. this is a disaster that requires immediate govt/central bank intervention. How can a speculator survive on just $370,000 per house, unbelievable. Especially as they are adding so much to the economy and society as a whole. The backbone of NZs economy, buying and selling existing houses at great profit how would we live without them.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...ba7dd43c175e95
I notice some concern on the Black Monday thread about rising interest rates. A couple of articles to assuage their fears for the property market.
Migrants flock to open homes
https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/42026
NZ population is still growing albeit more slowly.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/why-nz...FMOXTSJTEIMS4/
The grow and consume basis for the economy is still intact.
That said not sure when the 1,025,000 or so will be leaving according to the MYOB survey. What a bunch of muppets no wonder xero is taking market share.
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money...eaving-nz.html
Worse is that the news media and some politicians discussed it like it wasn't a load of cr*p. Maybe think before you print or open your trap. (good advice for me too)
Marama Davidson missing the mark once again along with the Human Rights Commission (ugh) asking for rent freezes and more govt control.
https://www.msn.com/en-nz/news/natio...fc2efd7594c04c
If the govt was not so involved in the price of capital through the RBNZ and looking for easy solutions with money printing, would we have house prices rising faster than CPI inflation, ultra low interest rates pushed up house prices so far that buying at ridiculously low yields then pushing up the rent (to match the rising prices) is the only way residential rental investment makes sense (that and RBNZ created capital gains). Anyone waiting for yields to return to more reasonable or normal levels will have been sadly disappointed.
Also shouldn't $37million a week in housing subsidies be solving the problem of high rents and helping the tenants and landlords, all part of the inflationary money go round that we have created with the financialization of the economy and government intervention to rectify the inequality it creates. Maybe focus less on the "wealth effect" and trickle down economics and provide a stable monetary system. Let investors base their decisions on return on investment rather than when the RBNZ will cut rates again.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...its-money?rm=a
Limitless capital through money printing and suppression of interest rates so that the normal source of capital (i.e. people who save and invest) can get a return on their money that reflects the cashflow generated from the investment rather than relying on central banks devaluing currency and providing capital gain at no cost (except the inflation tax which hurts the poor more than the asset owners (take note Marama).
NZ the only wealthy country with no capital gains tax and a regressive GST that makes no concessions for its regressive nature unlike other countries and now we have the inflation tax and Jacinda who is worried about poverty (yeah right) can't work out whats going on.
Mind you I am unsure if Chris Luxons tax cuts for the really well off is a solution to poverty in NZ. Although at least he doesn't pretend to give a sh*t about the bottom feeders.
Maybe he is styling his economic policy on Sri Lanka. large tax cuts to get into power. Hope it works out better though. I am guessing the average kiwi is less self centred, selfish and stupid than the average Sri Lankan but I am not sure these days.
Latest news Adrian getting tough, raises OCR to level less than half the inflation rate. What a legend.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ODZCFGHYUO77Q/
You've certainly changed your tune. It was only a little over a year ago you were saying:
May 2021
6 July 2021Quote:
Originally Posted by JBmurc
Quote:
Originally Posted by JBmurc
27 July 2021
25th August 2021Quote:
Originally Posted by JBmurc
Quote:
Originally Posted by JBmurc
NBR paywall - busy body group release paper that may as well be titled No S*** Sherlock - https://www.nbr.co.nz/business/popul...-house-prices/
"Booming house prices over the past two decades were more about globally low interest rates, the tax system, and restrictions on the supply of land than population growth or construction costs, a joint paper published today says.
The paper, released by the housing technical working group – a collaboration between Treasury, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, and the Ministry of Housing and Urban Development – looks at the key drivers of the housing market over the past 20 years."
Stephens said the three agencies were committed to better understanding the links between the economy, government policy, monetary policy, and the housing market.
Wow, so the RBNZ and treasury are going to keep looking into it. We're saved.
I thought monetary policy only played a "bit" part in house prices according to Adrian?
Here is a link to a non paywalled article and a link at the bottom to the actual report (I haven't read it yet).
Interesting that rising rents are more closely linked to increased immigration. Perhaps Marama could address the causes for rising rents rather than suggesting rent freezes like a dumb a*se.
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...d%20households.
I'm a full time share-trader of course I change my mind ... if you don't move with the times your get wiped out ... I was wrong too think the RBNZ would move much slower as we are such a HIGH debt to household income and most in RES property ...I never thought we would see 1yr fixed rates more than double within 12months ... who did ??? and now another potential 100%+ higher than last years record lows >>> from 2% to 7% !!! talk about kicking your working classes while their down fighting inflation across all basic living expenses ..
And its not me stating potential 4.5% OCR in the short term ...thats the RBNZ ...I think the pain for NZ households will be greatly felt across the country ... the spending spurge coming back to bite ... still think the OCR will be forced to drop before long into the 4%+ OCR... once the domino's start to fall esp in the property sector
I find myself agreeing with John Minto on tax policy. How far left have I swung? Further left than labour that's for sure.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/john-m...7II45S4XIJETA/
Although for all his annoying shouting John Minto would appear to be on the right side of history regarding the springbok tour and apartheid. Maybe not to hard core racists and rugbyheads but to most sane people.
He highlights that if national wanted to reduce tax they could lower GST, especially as this is a regressive tax and poor people are doing it hard currently with housing and the cost of living crisis. Chris would rather make a progressive tax less progressive. Chris Luxon knows who his voter base is though so it makes sense and he doesn't do too badly out of the proposed changes either. Why go into politics if you are not going to make life better for yourself.
Good old Adrian and the RBNZ hard out fighting inflation and the cost of living crisis.
https://www.interest.co.nz/banking/1...illion-will-be
Only a $8.5billion more available to the banks to pump into the economy. That should really slow inflation.
Lucky we have smart people like Adrian who understand the economy and how to make it better.
RBNZ Assistant Governor/General Manager Economics, Financial Markets and Banking Karen Silk said with the Government needing to increase bond issuance to support the Large Scale Asset Purchase programme, monetary support was needed so interest rates did not increase substantially. The options to reduce the OCR, then at 0.25% was inhibited. The FLP supported the lower interest rates.
Silk said the three year term of the FLP and two year application window were critical design features.
“They were designed to support commercial bank confidence to incorporate its use into their medium term funding programmes at the time of launch. And banks have incorporated that usage into those medium term programmes," she said.
“My point around it is that early removal [of the programme] would undermine confidence in this as a tool, which could potentially inhibit it from being used in future should it be required again in the future."
Translation; They have not even finished but expect to be using FLP in the future as they expect interest rates to be back to zero in the future.
I guess it is true they are at a point where it is "inflate or die" When they say "die" I think they mean deflation which according to economists and central bankers if we have deflation we might as well all be dead. A bit hyperbolic but the church used the fear of god to control people in the past so I guess central bankers use the fear of deflation to maintain this corrupt ponzi scheme.
Bernard Hickey confirmation bias.
https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...it-nz-inc-kick
Interesting how the labour shortage crisis only seems to be a crisis for business owners and politicians seeking to boost asset prices and suppress wage costs.
TOP party might be a viable alternative to National and Labour. Not as nutty as the others. Maybe Chloe could jump ship and win the Auckland Central seat so the TOP party can have a seat at the table and my vote will count.
Don't know all their policies so maybe shouldn't nail my colours to that mast just yet.