Maybe undervalued after all
Quote:
Originally Posted by
winner69
So H1 NPAT down 7% but H2 gunna be up 20%
That's good
Gunna sell a lot of gumboots.
Looks like the market likes that 20% per annum future growth :p.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Capitalised Dividend Valuation: FY2013 to FY2017 data
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Snoopy
Year |
Dividends |
Dividend Total |
2012 |
4.0c+3.0c |
7.0c |
2013 |
5.0c+3.0c |
8.0c |
2014 |
5.0c+3.5c |
8.5c |
2015 |
5.0c+3.5c |
8.5c |
2016 |
5.5c+3.5c |
9.0c |
Total |
|
41.0c |
Averaged over 5 years, the dividend works out at 41.0/5 = 8.2c (fully imputed).
So based on a 7.5% gross yield, fair value for SKL is:
8.2 / (0.075 x 0.72) = $1.52
I have updated my valuation using the latest five years of 'rolling data'. It is always a bit of a judgement call doing this. I have to ask myself if the data from FY2012 is still representative. In the case of PGW (as worked through on the PGW thread) I would say 'yes'. In the case of SKL I would say 'no'. I think the SKL growth plan is well enough bedded in to suggest that dividends will not regress to FY2012 levels. So what does dropping the FY2012 dividend payments and adding the FY2017 dividend payments do for my valuation?
Year |
Dividends |
Dividend Total |
2013 |
5.0c+3.0c |
8.0c |
2014 |
5.0c+3.5c |
8.5c |
2015 |
5.0c+3.5c |
8.5c |
2016 |
5.5c+3.5c |
9.0c |
2017 |
5.5c+3.5c |
9.0c |
Total |
|
43.0c |
Averaged over 5 years, the dividend works out at 43.0/5 = 8.6c (fully imputed).
So based on a 7.5% gross yield, 'fair value' for SKL is:
8.6 / (0.075 x 0.72) = $1.59
Now using my plus and minus 20% range to get a feel how the SKL share price might behave at the top and bottom of its business cycle.
Top of Busines Cycle Valuation: $1.59 x 1.2 = $1.91
Bottom of Busines Cycle Valuation: $1.59 x 0.8 = $1.27
At close to $1.50, I would put SKL as a reasonable 'accumulate' proposition, particularly as it is still cum the 3.5c dividend up until March 10th.
SNOOPY