VIX bolted 2 pips last week, esp Friday then settled back to 14.7% so you're (and Hoop) are probably right, the indices look to thrash around here or thereabouts trying to find direction.
Printable View
DOW made a clean breakout and close above the descending trend line resistance, now support. Refer previous chart. Target 17977 being 100% retrace of the Nov 3 2015 high. Impressive, especially if it continues up to test the all time high 18351 19 May 2015. Other big US indices are a bit behind DOW's recovery but trending in the same direction.
Yes. DOW has taken the lead in the USA. Markets from the USA to Asia pacific region have become somewhat active now.
Should be an interesting week coming up, after 5 days of price weakness but the Golden Cross (50EMA crossed up through the 200MA) suggests otherwise. Indicators have all turned over, could be a top is in with the DOW after the past few weeks of stellar performance.
Attachment 7967
DOW is getting closer to 18,000.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/marketnewsvideo/2016/04/13/dow-movers-vz-jpm-2/#4bce88057243
Dow Movers: VZ, JPM
http://money.cnn.com/2016/04/18/inve...000/index.html
Wild ride: Dow tops 18,000 for first time since last July
Technicians seem to be doubting their tea leaves
Twiggs also : On the fourteenth he said "I remain wary of this rally but will heed Jesse Livermore's advice: never argue with the tape", but more recently said "I remain wary of the current state of the global economy and will continue on the defensive. This is not a classic bull market.
Me too!
I see an enormous W
Attachment 7991
Believe the chart eh?
A classic looking W double bottom pattern (bullish), nice down-trend line breakout-up and currently testing the Neckline resistance, with a weekly close just above at 18003 (significant?). Pattern probability suggests a breakout-up of the neckline here would go easily to the all time high.
On the doubt side, all indicators diverging, not a good sign. Outside the chart, reflecting on the US economy, and who is actually buying (and selling) this rally, it's no wonder the doubt creeps in. It looks so toppy (price) and unstable (indicators).
Attachment 7992
dyodd
@peat in as much as the double bottom reversal shows, the pattern has been bullish forming a W, rising to the neckline. Whether that can breakout-up is another matter, you may be right that it goes bear here.
Here's an update on the table I posted 22 Feb, now including 23 Apr and the Change. Sure has been bullish for the US and NZ equities indexes, though not so for Gold.
Attachment 7993
It is interesting to see DOW is holding 18,000 despite Microsoft’s fall.
Don't let the W shape alter your perceptions it is this shape at the moment..charts are full of w actions both during uptrends and downtrends but most go unnoticed as they are insignificant.. many are just continuation events which really sums up the prediction outcomes of W movements..
When an "can't miss seeing" pronounced W happens all shorts of predictions pop up in the media, many look to the revision mirror and see sharp W corrections and an optimist sees a sharp rally extending through to new highs or a pessimist sees an impending crash when the W shape is played out..
There isn't much info on W but there is some recognition that the big w is a chart pattern, strangely the big w has a much lower middle rally point so really it should be called small w as people refer to a big w as a capital W which in the alphabet has a high middle rally point...
Why isn't a W recognised widely as a chart pattern is strange..one answer from me could be that the W are really other patterns such as a formed double bottom (bullish pattern) or a triple tops (bearish pattern) still in progress..so you can see how different investors can take different predictive views...
While the right hand side W was still forming ...this last DOW rally had a doubtful rising wedge pattern (S&P500 pronounced pattern) ..This sharp uptrend ended about a month ago (downward breakout of the rising wedge, but..against many TAers it has kept going up abeit in a much slowing upward rounding type trend to this present day full W shape...
Although I'm in the long term bear camp (still am)..Arfter the rising wedge break I actually thought this slowing trend to flat line or possible slow declining trend may play out over the following month (19th March to 19th April) and did not think a crash would happen for the following month up to 19th April 2016
This little prediction turned out nicely for me as most still favoured either a another sharp fall/crash or a continuation of a rapid uptrend to smash through resistances to new record highs and even higher within a couples of weeks...
My belief is still the same.. I'm been very amazed and impressed by Wall St resilience against most odds..but..Until I see a record high (above the margin of error) I will still view the DOW as being in a Bear Market Cycle (stage 1) not a sleeping bull,,therefore view any rally as a sucker rally and therefore I will always be cautious...Remember sucker rallies are notorious as they can suck in the best of us into thinking the worst is over..that's why they call it sucker rally..They are rare but I have seen a full retracement including a small record high sucker rally..