I topped up on close last Friday to 75,000. But am with Bottomfeeder and hoping for a bidding frenzy to start. I will buy more on any sp weakness before sale:).
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Yeh
M+A's not on steroids these days !
One could always save the money for their IPO or buy Ampol. (ADL)
It looks like ADL has done better over the last couple of years although correlation is increasing. Bound to be less volatility.
Attachment 13065
I'm also underwhelmed but as I've said many times this company is a really tired old mutt. Massive investment is required to give this aging thing a new lease of life including larger stores with better food and coffee and EV charging stations at all site's.
Will they change the name from Z to Ampol? Whatever the name, I am sure Z/Ampol will do all you said and convert to EV and cafe etc over time, the same as all other Caltex, BP etc outlets will do over time. Then Z/Ampol sp will probably head back to $10, but only after Kiwis sell to Aussi.;)
brought some today , imagine ampol will change the make up of z retail offer as part of there synergies. ie sell of the convenience shop side of things
Interesting to read Ampol's (ALD) presentation re Z's acquisition.
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Z Energy acquisition highlights:
Unique opportunity for Ampol to acquire the market leader in New Zealand and deliver strong financial returns
- Z Energy is the market leader in New Zealand with 40% share of New Zealand fuel sales and a similar businessmodel to Ampol
- Creates a Trans-Tasman fuel champion with a combined network of ~2,400 sites and supplying ~23.5 BL pa of fuelto customers in the Asia Pacific region, leveraging Ampol’s unique international supply chain
- Material transition and synergies1 opportunities – NZ$60-80m pa largely via, fuel procurement and overhead costreductions
- Compelling financial returns – targeting double digit EPS accretion and 20%+ free cash flow accretion in 2023
- Creates a stronger platform for development of lower emissions energy solutions for customers across Australia andNew Zealand
***
I'm waiting for the bidding war to start and should be at least a price with 4 in front.
My average buy is ~$4.65 ... so bought a few more to dampen the loss. Obviously not too pleased on where they've landed.
Possibly leave the branding as is, its what Kiwi's have come to know and many would be stupid enough to continue to buy the line that Z is for New Zealand. I read recently that they have changed advertising agencies...(existing advertising was weak in my opinion). Like most things Mike Bennetts and his "leadership" team do its too little and too late.
Some will be genuine synergies but most will be removing egregiously high management salaries that have continued to be paid irrespective of the extremely poor leadership and management. I'm not selling yet either...at the very least the international arbitrage funds will start to get to work here and the price should go a little higher over time. Who knows, another bid might be possible ?
Bought some more at $3.60 - downside covered by the $3.83 Ampol bid with another 10% to 15% potential upside from another bidder. Best risk reward play on the market rather than money in the bank.
Don't really want to wake up tomorrow morning and read in the AFR that another bidder has offered $4.15 and Amnpol has decided to counter.
interesting to see you guys still hangin in.
I've already had two bites at this cherry and unlike you guys and Metlife wont be having a third. My portfolio has a reasonable chunk of Aussie resource so will just leave it there for now.
Z have spouted on about the annual divvy being 19-23 cents, (mid point 21 cents in annual dividends) which suggests a fair interim dividend should be 10.5 cents. In that context to only allow shareholders to have half the dividend they're entitled too Mike, his team and the board have again failed shareholders. (I say "again" because over the years they've consistently failed shareholders with their lack of vision and leadership).
Really the minimum satisfactory deal as I see it is to allow the payment of normal interim and final dividends, (total 21 cps) so I will vote no, (not that my small stake will make any difference).
To Balance's point above which I think is a good one. The current deal as tabled provides the accrual of $3.83 - $3.60 = 23 cents in value between now and 31 March 2022 and after that if the deal isn't implemented by 31/3/21 there's up to another 10 cents in value. Not a done deal yet but 23 / 360 = 6.4% return in 5 2/3'rds months = annual rate of return of 13.5% plus the possibility of a counter offer. Chance of Commerce Commission turning it down but I am confident they will find a work around for that. Definitely not a sell at this point and maybe Balance is right, perhaps its a buy ?
I have an idea. First, is ZEL the only NZ owned petrol etc supplier? If so NZ is going to have to buy all our petrol etc supplies from overseas companies, and all profits are going overseas as most of our banks etc. Why don't someone put on social media that NZ is going to sell our only supplier to aussi and it is going cheap, then tell everyone to quickly buy shares in ZEL and sp will shoot up to $4.50c. Now who wants to sell their shares to aussi now at such a discount of $3.78c:t_down:. I am with Beagle on this and will vote no for this to go ahead, and am looking forward to the next div. So come on NZ, buy now and lets get that sp above $4. Go now and buy 5,000,000 shares before close on Friday, WE CAN DO IT!!! GO YOU LITTLE BEAUTY!!!:t_up:
Sounds like Stakeholders are being ripped over badly on both the Offer amount and the Dividend to me ;)
What are Z's Board smoking to recommend such a low offer and inferring Stakeholders should also get ripped over on
the dividend or is their past 23.0 cps dividend & guidance up the pole ? ;)
Time to deliver some underarm bowling back to AMPOL IMO ;)
Hopefully the major shareholders will vote against it. I would rather keep what we have, unless the takeover was at least 4.20 plus dividends until deal goes through.
Don’t count out a counter bid emerging - Ampol’s commentary on the takeover is compelling reading for any counter bidder as to just what a bargain Ampol is getting.
Heck, Ampol is fully debt funding the takeover!!!! That’s how much it’s bankers love the deal.
Had a really brief look at some of the 108 pages of the SIA document, here, http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...676/356623.pdf
(DYOR and don't rely on me to read the whole 108 pages because I can assure you that isn't going to happen), but from what I can see the extra consideration (up to 10 cents after 31/03/2022) if the scheme isn't implemented by then accrues at a daily rate that amounts to 1.65 cents per month with a maximum of 6 months. (Annual rate of 5.5% based on $3.60 invested now)
They are targeting completion in the first half of 2022. I think its likely with all the conditions we'll go well into that six month extension period and this won't settle until around July-August 2022...that's my gut feel. Very unlikely to get done by 31 March 2022. Deal is exclusive to AMPOL and in my opinion is almost certain to contain rights within it for them to match any higher offer but I couldn't be bothered reading that far though all that guff. I might give it a week or three and see if another bid is forthcoming and if not...
No big hurry, Beagle to take your gains until a better opportunity comes along.
The arb funds are already hovering up the stock, to be joined soon by the fixed interest balanced funds who will find the yield at anything up to $3.70 irresistible.
Again NZ sleeps ZZZZZZZZ. When the deals done it will be big headline news, and like the banks, boo hoo all our profits going overseas again. The news will read in a couple of years.......ZEL/Ampol doing very well converting to petrol and EV and convenience store and car grooming and cafe outlets. ZEL/Ampol sp is on $5 and are declaring a 50c div, and it will be all over the news and kiwis will say, why did we let that go:(. Come on NZ wakeup! There seems to be a lot of sellers around $3.63 to $3.65?
I could hardly get past the definitions. But there is a warranty that the board is not currently in discussions with any other party, and also will not directly or indirectly, invite solicit etc any other competing bids. The agreement does make allowances for superior proposals and other due dilligence activities, but reasonably the closer we get to the shareholder vote, the less likely any competing bids will be forthcoming. If a competing bid does surface, it would probably have to be more than marginally better as Ampol will just match it. So its like they have raised the stakes considerably. Good advice to wait a few months before selling.
I'm also underwhelmed and will vote "no" when the time comes.
Why are NZ boards such wimps when it comes to takeover negotiations?
I'm not at all happy with the clause in the agreement that allows Ampol to have another bid in the event that a competing offer emerges. The Z board should not have allowed this clause. It is tantamount to an admission that Ampol hasn't made its best offer and won't do so unless a rival bid emerges.
I think such clauses should be specifically excluded by the takeovers legislation.
Z should have told Ampol to put their best price on the table now ie the price that they wouldn't go above in any circumstances - that way there wouldn't be a need for an option to rebid
Is Ampol buying ZEL as is where is? Who is paying for the Marsden refinery conversion to import only terminal? And how much will that cost?
Well ill be voting yes. I sort of see it as now or never for a takeover of Z. The uptake of EV has been faster than many had guesses and now more EV sales than diesel sales. This business lost its way in a dying industry. It will get hit from time to time from lockdowns and the price is full from an ebitda multiple perspective especially considering it just a retailer in a sunset sector. Without a bid this thing will track lower and lower in perpetuity.
Comparative global companies are EV:EBITDA multiples of 7.8x to 9.5x with an average of 8.4x. Ampol is on 7.9x
Offer put ZEL at 12.7x
Seems more than a generous offer on that basis.
No doubt Calibre in independent review will agree and come up with a fair range of $3.55 to 3.90
i be voting yes , be under 3 if not for the deal
Yes...thankyou for sharing that information with me by email last evening. It does appear Ampol are paying a fair control premium for what in reality is a very tired business in a sunset industry. As Fiordland Moose has suggested above, its probably now or never and EV's are selling like hot cakes. If there's no competing bid in the next wee while its time to take the money and run.
Some of those force majeure clauses cover a multitude of evils...if I get especially bored i might drill down some more into those 108 pages and see what else is hiding in plain sight in that large can of worms.
Mined out that information from the 108 pagesQuote:
As at the date of this agreement, Z Energy is not in negotiations or discussions
(other than with Ampol and its Representatives) with any party relating to, or which
may reasonably be expected to lead to, any Competing Proposal.
Does anyone know the land value of all the Z sites in NZ? Has that been considered? And if the deal fell through and sp went back down to $3.10c, that would still be a good yld stock to hold. eg. When the McDonalds brothers sold out to the franchises, that is when McDonald became a multi billion dollar company. The money is not in the hamburgers but in the land. So what we are selling here is not a sunset business, but a new future sunrise business which will house all the new EV recharging outlets.:scared: Come on NZ, lets not loose another company to overseas interests.