Working in administration (financial team) I find it hard to understand how hard it is to produce this through-put table. To me, it sounds like a two minute job... perhaps thirty minutes if you make it look fancy for publication on NZX
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Working in administration (financial team) I find it hard to understand how hard it is to produce this through-put table. To me, it sounds like a two minute job... perhaps thirty minutes if you make it look fancy for publication on NZX
Certainly no company builds a 260,000 test per annum facility and holds further options on same floor expansion plans without having both researched the market and having the confidence to act on that research.
No one on this thread, as far as I'm aware is a clinician, and it is difficult to assess for yourself without allocating a lot of time or finding someone in the know, I've been fortunate in that my daughter is both a biochemist and a shareholder and this has helped me a lot with a general understanding.
There are a lot of very smart people at Pacific Edge with a lot of clinical expertise and experience in this field, just take a look at the advisory board, a lot of experienced within sector US sales folk are coming on board now too.
http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-u...ific-advisory/
http://www.pacificedge.co.nz/about-u...er?stage=Stage
The very early part of the curve will be exploratory and modest, just as PEB have told us, but equally I think their 5 year goal of $100M in revenues is quite understated for specific reasons.
What may provide some confidence for those whom don’t have the luxury of time to do more may be a bit more analyst coverage.
The pending Edison report, if similar to the others prepared for NZ companies, may just do that and should provide us all with a lot more specific detail than we have access to at present.
Perhaps so Hancock’s, my 1,000 to 5,000 sales expectation is more based on the first sales announcement of October last year as having been a kickoff point, and PEB's strategic focus on having staff working on or with the big HMO's from the get go rather than having sales staff in cars visiting and chasing LUG urologists. An investment of staff time in client relationship building rather than in pursuing quick initial sales.
But, then I don’t think a sales result at this point in time is at all meaningful or representative of a trend whatever the number we may see, it's just too early up to 31 March with xmas, thanks giving, staff training, team building etc permitting.
I’m still chipping away on that Cxbladder(triage) market size work, I’ll PM you.
as far as modelling the uptake of sales I would imagine that Cxbladder will have an S uptake curve. With how the sale model works (further tests needed to be prescribed after the initial test) I don't feel a linear model would be the the best to base expectations off otherwise the expectations for an 8 month figure would be somewhere in the $13.3m ball park.
Now with an S curve 8 months in out of 60 its nearly trivial to even bother about the amount of tests as if this model did hold then you'd be looking for a drastic peak in sales in around the 20 month mark where sales would sky rocket to that $100m goal. Even if you chose a linear model I can't see the full affect of test sales really being applicable until around the 20 month mark anyway as the rolling ball of tests wouldn't have fully started yet.
In short, the market may have picked a number in which dissapointment will take over and people will start jumping ship, but I feel people shouldn't so early on in the program given 8 months in isn't a substantial length of time on a sales model. To be blunt it seems the market is blood thirsty for some raw sales but at this point in time I can't seem to see why they should have any obscene amount under the belt. If they do, good stuff I'm keen to see PEB shoot off, but it looks like the bears may be in charge here.
In short I don't believe amount of tests should have too much weight on future value, however I think the report will have a big effect.
DISC: holding through the good and bad :)
I dont know the full rakon story but I don't know if the comparison is appropriate.
It seems to me that the deals that were signed in October and the ones to come will ensure a critical uptake of the product alone.
That's exactly the same comments dedicated shareholders were saying in 2006 about that company we not allowed to name
Sometimes the stories come true and we all get rich and sometimes the story is just that, a story.
Even the well managed company you mentioned with highly respected managers with world leading technology didn't make the story come true.
So PEB will either make us rich or make us poor
Sorry klid , couldn't resist it
In two scenarios out of three, I plan to buy more than I'm currently holding:
Scenario A: Sales disappoint: share price falls, and I buy more under $1.00 a week or so later (once PEB is oversold);
Scenario B: Sales impress: I quickly buy more (averaging up) as momentum to the upside improves;
Scenario C: Sales are mediocre: I simply hang on to what I have, waiting for a new trend-line to be established before trading again.
Anyway, that's my plan and I'm sticking to it.
BC
It seems like a long time ago that Pacific Edge released their update, this one below, and it is easy over time to lose the message;
http://www.pacificedgedx.com/assets/...e-13June13.pdf
The main reason that I don’t think this coming sales report means anything in assessing progress is because Pacific Edge have been consistently telling us that their early focus and use of staff resources is focused on building relationships with the big potential HMO customers.
It’s not been their intention to “cherry pick” early sales by door knocking, strategically there is a bigger picture and there is a much better strategic use of time and resource at this stage.
Sure there may be a few urologist sales rolling in and some of the user group studies have completed and whilst there will be lengthy approval processes, months, some may have started to roll over into sales, but probably not before the end of the reporting period to 31 March.
Investing is about buying the potential sure, and one must also have the patience to watch a company to do what they have told us they will do.