Patience Grasshopper. Good things take time.
Patience Grasshopper. Good things take time.
If history is anything to go by, there is an 80%* chance the closing share price on 15 July will fall from the 14 July closing share price, by an amount that is less than the value of the dividend. There is also a 50%* chance the closing share price does not change from cum to ex dividend (i.e. the daily closing price change is zero). Given the current yield for this dividend is around 2% and a brokerage rate of 0.5% => free money once you factor in the tax credits.
*this is assuming one does not bet the farm on an illiquid stock and move the price excessively.
I think the annualised Div yield is a bit higher than 2% - Ferg
Using past 4 payouts - 20 cps cash = 4.67% + Imp Credits
Gross Div Yield (incl tax credits) = 27.78 cps = 6.49 % Gross
I'm thinking a possibility that interims may stretch to 5c or 6c upwards for 21/22 year
Working 3 x 5 c say+ 6c final forwards = 21.0 cps = 4.906% Cash yield
In that scenario, Gross Div Yield (incl tax credits) = 29.17 cps = 6.81 % Gross
If quarterly payouts stretch to 6c + credits - Gross Annual Dividend yield (incl credits) looks
like 7.78% on current SP
Still pretty good with a good past track record, against current bank deposit rates ;)
Very true. I wasn't 100% clear in my post. The 2% refers to the gross dividend of the day, not annualised.
I have been working the maths* to find the appropriate instantaneous dividend yield vs brokerage and imputation rates to find instances of ex dividend mis-pricing. There is an 80% chance this will be one of them. I will put up a post of the formula needed to solve this, plus some stats on SP losses vs dividend yield - the two are inter-twined.
*That's why I haven't been around much lately - been crunching a lot of numbers.
TRA does appear to exhibit slip backs in it's past SP upwards moves -- these appear temporary within recent 12 months
20-30c not unusual - I wonder if not the same before resuming ?
The Jan 20 2020 div payment saw a slip of approx 20c between Ex & Pymt date of 4.0 cps + Tax credits
then there was the larger slide into the Covid-19 lockdown trough
Goodness gracious ….as share price heads to 4 bucks instead of 5 bucks a Director has been selling
http://nzx-prod-s7fsd7f98s.s3-websit...649/350331.pdf