Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 27 October 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)
The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 24 October 2009-
Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 26 October 2009-
http://i33.tinypic.com/2ivk2kz.jpgInstitutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level
http://i38.tinypic.com/5bsjkj.jpgLong Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i33.tinypic.com/2n1w8jb.jpgNYSE Momentum and Strength
http://i35.tinypic.com/ouqpsw.jpgNYSE Down Volume
http://i33.tinypic.com/117v5l3.jpgVIX Daily
US Economic Calendar -data point 27 October 2009-
>US Consumer Confidence: actual 47.7 (forecast 52.6) (consensus 53.5) (prior 53.1)
>CaseShiller Home Price Index: actual -11.32% (forecast -13.0%) (consensus -11.9%) (prior -13.3% )
Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 27 October 2009-
...the SPX 500 sank to an early Low *1061 followed by a bounce which appeared laboured and unconvincing;
...based on short term oversold conditions as well as the fact that institutional selling remains in an uptrend and increased over the last few trading session, further upticks should be limited and should not impact on the overall bearish market composure;
...towards the end of the week or early next week, the next down leg should test and breach the 50-day MA currently *1045 which would make the Jun High *956 the next apparent target with scope to retest the Jul Low *869 before year-end.
SPX 500 Hedge -data point 27 October 2009-
...Cash before Open with downside cover; neutral above *1079 to *1092; bullish above *1097 closing basis ...short
Market Commentary -data point 27 October 2009-
Mike Whitney: Dollar Collapse Update: "Obama Demands Pay in Euros!"
http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.p...t=va&aid=15808 ...Bernanke's problem, is that all the tools at his disposal are blunt instruments. It's like performing kidney surgery with a meat cleaver. Dropping interest rates and printing money can stave off deflation, but it also pushes stocks higher than anyone really wants. That leaves traders on the sidelines waiting for a market correction before they jump back in. The same is true of the dollar. Sure, Bernanke wants a cheap greenback to spark exports and reduce household debt, but when the dollar plunges to $1.60 per euro, then the sh** hits the fan and the public outcry forces him to change directions. If the dollar falls any further, the Fed will have to shut down the printing presses altogether and watch while the boat capsizes. The problem is more political than economic.
US policymakers should drop this nonsense about the dollar and deal with the underlying problem itself; lack of demand. That means the focus should be on wage growth and full employment. If that means printing up a couple more trillion; then get to it! Getting people back to work and paying them decently should be job one
Long Term: THE BEAR
>Elliot Wave International: Initial Stages of Wave 3 (unconfirmed)
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards
Daily S&P 500 INDEX TRACKER
Printable View
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28-10-2009, 07:56 AMananda77
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28-10-2009, 09:46 AMHoopHoops answer:.......minor correction (10%ish) and may last a few monthsQuote:
Originally Posted by belgarion
This period of time usually clobbers the late investor comers harshly who up to now have resisted entering the market thinking the worst is still to happen and have recently found the courage to enter because they can't stand it any longer seeing the party carrying on without them.
Simon Maierhofer's article is emotional using the Titanic example and he has fallen into the same Shiller annualised P/ERatio chart trap as many other uninformed article writers trying to dramatise that all is rotten in the investment world.
NOTE:-Shiller Annualised PE Ratio is at the moment running at 19.3 (as at 30 Sept 2009) NOT 143
Sure... you can use the simple PE Ratio and chart it accordingly, but it turns out with peaks and troughs everywhere and looks like a seismograph recording an earthquake...hence the chart is useless..that is why Shiller devised a formula method.
To read about whats happening with PE ratios with the S&P500 index read the Crestmont Research paper (updated 30th Sept 2009) here and throw that other bullsh1t article in the bin where it belongs
Sorry Bel if this post came across rather strong..not aimed at you ..aimed at the low quality media drivel which suck people into believing. -
28-10-2009, 10:46 AMHoop
Another good freebee TA article courtesy of MarketWatch,
Technical Indicator Article -
28-10-2009, 07:14 PMarco
Time for an update
Some time ago when I mentioned a potential H&S forming
http://i37.tinypic.com/vh7y87.gif
NOW....................we're getting there
http://i36.tinypic.com/n5oor5.gif -
28-10-2009, 07:17 PMbeaconIts in the here and nowMethinks we are already in this impending correction you see. India is down 8% already, SPX approx 4%, EuroStoxx 50 approx 5%, Aussie nearing 4% etc from recent highs. japan, china and russia recently had their corrections, and are rebounding (eg Japan has recovered to half of its near 15% fall from recent grace). 860 may be exceptional value, and I would love to buy some US stocks at that point, but I suspect Ben is in no mood to let SPX get anywhere near there ...Quote:
Originally Posted by belgarion
Liked your links Hoop. Like you I was laughing at the scare mongerer talking about SPX PE being 143. And to think these people publish their uninformed crap with such abandon... -
28-10-2009, 07:39 PMananda77...basically agree that Institutions would LOVE to see *860/*870, the SPX 500 'fair value level' and think, institutional investors will drive the market there; it will be a well supported level from where the market will most likely start another leg to a new recovery High;Quote:
Originally Posted by beacon
Kind Regards -
28-10-2009, 10:53 PMdelinkyAnanda77
You will very rarely see me post simply because I am a novice and learning. (the hard way I might add). I look forward to your posts daily and am indeed learning.
I notice that around the world almost all indicies have sold off which indicates a correction (or "other") maybe underway. However, although the US hasn't opened yet, I wonder why their indicies haven't really begun to sell off yet? Surely, it won't wait until market to open. This could be a ridiculous question but I do think it seem strange since most other markets have broken yesterday's lows already. -
29-10-2009, 06:07 AMananda77
Invetrics: Financial Insight and Market Timing Signals -data point 28 October 2009- (may adjust at Market Open)
The Technical SPX 500 Whereabouts -data point 27 October 2009-
Stocktiming: Technical Market Analysis -data point 27 October 2009-
Institutional Core Holdingshttp://i35.tinypic.com/261zvx1.jpg...in a technical uptrend still
http://i35.tinypic.com/20jn0nk.jpgInstitutional NET Buying and Selling Volume level
http://i38.tinypic.com/23lmejp.jpgLong Term Trending Fed. Liquidity and Foreign Liquidity Inflows
http://i38.tinypic.com/2hdmbeb.jpgNYSE Momentum and Strength
http://i36.tinypic.com/2ik4ghv.jpgNYSE Down Volume
US Economic Calendar -data point 28 October 2009-
>US Sept. Durable Orders: actual 1% (forecast 0.5%) (consensus 1.0%) (prior -2.4%)
>ex Transport: actual 0.9% (forecast 01%) (consensus 0.7%) (prior 0.0%)
>US Sept. New Home Sales: actual 407K (forecast 450K) (consensus) (prior 429K)
Stock Market Day Trader update -data point 28 October 2009-
...SPX 500 extending solidly lower this morning but downticks still appear a bit hesitant above the 50-day MA at *1045
...although the overall tone remains bearish in the wake of four failed tests of *1092/*1101 in the past week, there is potential for a retest of *1091/*1101 based on an oversold rally if *1046 support holds near term -Watch Out For Tomorrows Q3 GDP Numbers (+2,5% estimated)-
..on the other hand, violation of the 50-day MA level should sponsor a near term test of the Oct 2 Low at *1020 before an oversold bounce; looking further ahead, penetration of *1020 should shift sights toward the Jun High *956 initially with potential to retest the Jul Low *869 before year-end
SPX 500 Hedge -data point 28 October 2009-
......Cash before Open with 'tight' downside cover; neutral above *1073 to *1091; bullish above *1097 closing basis
...taking profit *1047 for today
Long Term: THE BEAR
_no guarantees and trading strategies are just ideas_
Kind Regards -
29-10-2009, 07:45 AMStranger_Danger
It certainly looks like the market wants to fall, but, I can remember feeling like this about 7 times since March! The old wall of worry I guess.
For the record, I've recently been taking some chips off the table (complex investment strategy that led to this decision - "because I can" ) but am loathe to fall in love with any one thesis for what may happen next.
I *am* concerned to hear a few people I know suddenly talking about making "easy money" in the sharemarket, including first time investors and people who have been out of the market for ages and just re-entered.
However, I still see many shares I consider reasonably priced, BUT, it isn't lost on me that my major error during the 2007-2008 period was holding onto a few shares on the basis of "reasonable price" then watching them get even more so!
The US GDP number tomorrow - and the market response to it - will be most instructive. -
29-10-2009, 10:38 AMarco
.
This is easier than forex trading :D.....+21 (See also post #70)
Current Chart
http://i36.tinypic.com/2agnpn7.gif
Chart Posted Last Night
http://i36.tinypic.com/n5oor5.gif