Top post mate and shows you have a very good understanding of the business and the calibre of the people involved unlike some others on here.
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I repeat my question who goes shopping at HLG these days (appreciate the ticker correction paper tiger) ?
My last foray into said store unwittingly resulted in brutal competition with many sharp elbowed women folk; there wasn't even a sale on. The online revolution might well be stymied by the fairer genders love of shopping as combat sport. I don't know where this puts HLG but it does explain the abomination that are boxers.
Betcha most of those women folk had glowing cheeks and smooth skin as a result of swearing by what rosehip and other decentomen folk Trilogy skin care products does for you
And those same women folk had bought their Trilogy from the pharmacy next door - no on line stuff for them
Business men buy their suits and shirts there
Raz stocks up big every 5 years
I bought 2 tshirts for $20 last week
Teenagers from comfortable white middle income demographics buy Tough hoodys and Gangsta trou there for street creed attempts.
Percy goes in there just to look and insert bookmarks in pockets and count them next week.
PT pilots drones in and out of their shops looking for non aligned panel prints.
W69 sits outside with a notice(I am Blind) and a soup tureen collection bowl.
W69Two sits at the next shop front with shades on ;his sign says , "i can see quite clearly"
Roger sits outside in a tip truck , motor running. The tarp moves and a beagle eases to the ground and sneaks in amongst the slacks and boxer shorts, exits moments later with a satisfied grin , jumps back under tarp and settles amidst 10,000 pairs of slightly worn plimsolls.
James and GR8Day coast past in a convertible hummer throwing darts at a board mounted on the radiator cap
boysy drives past in an austin cambridge blue with a white stripe and retrofitted with an airbag. He doesn't look.
Hector brushes against womens elbows going for a record ;23 jabs in the ribs.
Snoopy labourishly writes out a 5 page parking ticket to Roger pointing to the multiple chalk marks and oil stains.
Hoop is sign writing the shop window in squiggly lines, correcting them and also offering palm readings to passing Milfs on the side.
Hallees is humming and all is well on this sunny friday afternoon.;)
Last time I saw Roger ramping something, it was AIR: it duely went from about 305 to 205. Hopefully he's more successful here.
I've thought for a while that 270 was a bit low for HLG. It's a decent stock caught in a rough patch. I'd definitely count it for 330 within a few months. $4, I'm not so sure though.
I'd definitely ignore the talk about the dividend. That's a historical measure and HLG likes to keep their divvie high, regardless of the profit. Hopefully dividend and profit can both improve in the next 24 months. When divvie yield is greater than profit, it's just not sustainable!
Interesting comments, I decided to returning to the real world yesterday and attend office drinks at Raz's business and see how the worker bees are doing with HLG very much on my mind.
What i found is a fragmented market in the world of shopping from an informal survey..the administrators, under paid and over worked, bless them, find no time to get out of the office so resort to internet shopping..usually the cheaper sites. The touch team are fizzing with the prospect of planning a major shop after their Sydney tournament visit, good for them, just loving the cross rate. One associate is planning a trip to USA and I point her towards Portland, great vib of a city with tax free shopping..try Washington Square, Tigard, I kindly suggest.
My aspiring managers are all wearing clothes from Sergio's or Euro style as we exchanged pleasantries while my main managers say their wives do the shopping and most of it is via the internet with UK sites in favour currently.
Also love within this group for the USD being higher...more future US trip being planned by the sounds of it.
The older set seem to buy from farmers when I caught up.
Pick up the kids from sport on the way home and suggest HLG and the reaction will not get repeated here.
It use to be HLG was go to shopping or at least always considered and they did not get a mention from anyone..I rest my case..trigger finger ready to sell.
The forex rate stronger may work for HLG however it makes other options cheaper as well...including shopping trips overseas.
Raz - returning to the real world must have been a humbling experience for you.
Disappointed that you weren't actually with the kids at sport and getting involved in their activities ....but at least you were there to pick them up
Back to Hallensteins - donyou really think they will be a non-event in a few years time
This is what I like to refer to as "micro management share investing". Forming investment decisions on how your interactions with the company play out. Seemingly important at a personal level, but highly insignificant when you look at the big picture. Easy to do and we all fall into the trap occasionally but not necessarily the most productive of reasons to buy or sell. I don't think I have ever been into Hallensteins (or Glassons for that matter) but that is no sure indicator of anything other than the possibility that I might be a nudist but probably not a cross dresser. Sort of like the WHS syndrome...that's been clunking out the profits and dividends for years and yet manyt of the posts are of the variety..."why would you shop there?" "Cheap junk and terrible service"
Well boysy I buy their work clothing good value stylish and durable and been doing so a several years
Hope you don't assume as much with your investing:-) I'm blessed that i own and hardly need to work anymore. i appreciate it every day. I also get heaps of time with my children while others don't. Don't see many fathers around school. Last night was sports practice which parents are not allowed to attend. Today is the games :-)
Retail management is generally well managed in NZ, it has to be to survive. I would like Hallensteins to prosper i'm just yet to see anything that convinces me it is moving with the changing demographic and market.
How is the ramp going?
I agree personal outlook only goes so far..look at the dividend only is myopic..what about the non performing share price and I'm talking not just the past year. Assuming historical dividend will and can continue is also an open question..
I have found if you have micro-economic information you can get ahead of the market and determine trends thou.
ps tim23 good to hear! Even the rampers haven't made that comment!
I will be interested to see the relative pricing and parity of H&M and Zara (presumably Uniqlo can't be far away either) when they arrive in the next few months. Topshop here is effectively being operated by Barkers so they aren't really going to stick out their necks with disruptive pricing.
In my experience, H&M are pretty ruthless about clearing stock between seasons and generating foot traffic. That applies to their European, US and Australian stores so will be intrigued with how aggressive they may be here.
Seeing things looking more positive for FY17 I updated this chart which shows what a $20m profit would look like in historical terms .....and what the share price is likely to do
And don't forget to factor in what 30 cent plus dividend looks like in the current low interest rate environment
Nice chart mate. Genuine prospects for a decent recovery over the next year and then there's THAT dividend yield !!
I think that chart is cool, if only because for a long period of time the share prices reflects actual company performance. Only exception was 2013 when it disappointed and the share price got monstered.
One of percy's favourite quotes is 'price follows earnings' (or something like that). HLG is a great example and it bodes well for the next year at least
Percy's wrong in this instance and others. This reporting season is all about the outlook in my opinion. AIR an obvious example. SP is not following earnings it has lead expected earnings downgrade for FY17. Another good example this company. Earnings will decline by circa 20% when they report but the outlook is the key and management have already stated the reasons why they have confidence that the profitability can be restored to former level's. SP will follow better outlook once the market begins to recognise there's better times ahead.
Up to $2.85 so creeping up nicely
Not too late to get a bargain
Will still be in business this time next year and paying out a 30 cents plus dividend
That massive final dividend which they've basically confirmed as the same as previous years 16.5 cps comes at a brilliant time of year in December for Christmas and holidays.
Buy some shares in HLG and its the gift you give yourself that keeps on giving every Christmas !!
Strange dividend schedule though, paying in April and December :confused:
Got some yesterday at 2.70 after selling my FBU at 10 :eek2:
I see a down day ahead for HLG.
H&M opening at Sylvia Park in October. Long-term impact is probably unknown but short term it might hit the SP.
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/indu...first-nz-store
One store...I'm quaking in my boots LOL. I see an up day, check the exchange rate, nearly 73 cents...fantastic for importers margin's ! There's a clear break up through the 100 dat MA so for a TA point of view it seems clear the SP recovery trend has begun :t_up:
Roger the strong dollar will continue to force the RBNZs hand to cut further to ramp up inflation . more competition and lower dollar in the year ahead no doubt about either which will hurt margins. Might be a divi yield play but longer term I can't see capital appreciation longer term.
Quote from earlier in the thread
"One of percy's favourite quotes is 'price follows earnings' (or something like that)."
One of Phaedras many quotations was:
"Price follows volume ...."
HLG Prices downloaded from Yahoo Finance
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=...=16&f=2016&g=w
Monthly Summary
Date Open High Low Close Average Volume
1 Aug 2016 2.65 2.86 2.63 2.85 96,800
1 Jul 2016 2.65 2.70 2.59 2.62 46,900
1 Jun 2016 2.72 2.76 2.65 2.65 40,400
2 May 2016 2.89 2.96 2.70 2.72 43,600
Is something happening here ...
Weekly Summary:
From 27,700 in June 2016 to 134,000 in August 2016
HLG Open High Low Close Average volume
15-Aug-16 2.70 2.86 2.7 2.85 134,000
8-Aug-16 2.68 2.84 2.67 2.71 106,200
1-Aug-16 2.65 2.74 2.63 2.68 56,000
25-Jul-16 2.63 2.65 2.59 2.62 54,400
18-Jul-16 2.65 2.68 2.61 2.61 60,600
11-Jul-16 2.65 2.7 2.65 2.66 38,900
4-Jul-16 2.68 2.7 2.64 2.64 37,700
27-Jun-16 2.67 2.7 2.65 2.68 27,700
Roger our interest rates will continue to fall while the US is looking to raise their rates albeit off a very low base. The NZD carry trade is in favour due to the interest rate differential but as our rates continue to fall and US at the very least stay stable look to see the NZD drop later on this year.
Roger - if you had seen the queues to enter H&M when it opened in Melbourne and in Sydney, I'd be a touch more concerned as they have generally scaled up stores reasonably quickly.
They are a desirable anchor retailer in a number of locations in Australia, Europe and in the US - whilst HLG has been a consistent divvy stock for a long time, I'd be keeping an eye on H&M.
H&M and Zara are both businesses pitched at affordable AND fashionable. They haven't become behemoths globally without knowing a thing or two about building share and rolling out stores. They also have for the most part, pricing parity across their stores.
In the same way, IKEA opened with one store in Australia, they have a considerable business in Australia quite quickly at the expense of traditional retailers.
PS - I wouldn't be looking at the USD/NZD cross for H&M either.... it's more like the Euro/NZD
Not worried Boysy. I hold many stocks that would benefit from the currency being a little lower, (beauty of a well diversified portfolio), and I am working my numbers for FY17 with HLG on an average exchange rate of 70 cents U.S., something they'll easily be able to achieve with forward cover now the spot rate is close to 73. U.S. raising rates will be at a snails pace in my opinion and interest rates world-wide with subdued growth will stay ultra low for the foreseeable future in my opinion. I think RBNZ will need some new tools in their toolkit.
Quote from earlier in the thread
"One of percy's favourite quotes is 'price follows earnings' (or something like that)."
One of Phaedras many quotations was:
"Price follows volume ...."
HLG Prices downloaded from Yahoo Finance
https://nz.finance.yahoo.com/q/hp?s=...=16&f=2016&g=wIs something happening here ...
Weekly Summary:
From 27,700 in June 2016 to 134,000 in August 2016
Reformat table in a PDF to make clearer
Attachment 8235
I would have to walk down to my nearest H&M or Zara or Uniqlo (do you have them yet?) and read the labels in order to check, but I am betting that they have supply agreements for stock denominated in US$ from all the usual suspects.
My bet goes so far to having bought some HLG shares (software flagged it up for price & volume movement).
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Hey Roger - did you see the Tiger -.My bet goes so far to having bought some HLG shares (software flagged it up for price & volume movement).
So our buying has triggered a buy by PT -,a bit ironic eh
Hope we don't let him down
Yes, ironic that my buying is materially contributing towards triggering volume signals and a TA signal, (breaking out through the 100 day MA). Sometimes it pays to make the market rather than following TA signals like KW was so fond of doing but I get worried when the cat and dog are on the same page...might be okay seeing as the massive dividend feeds get put into separate food bowls :)
Stop being so Catty mate, learn to share your food bowl. PS-You've nealy convinced me to buy some.
Getting close to $3
Share price increasing nicely
I bought my first small parcel of HLG at the beginning of last week. 8% increase in 12 days has me smiling. :t_up:
Tony Alexander of BNZ in his Weekly Overview said this about the NZD/USD -
Chances are we head soon to 75 cents then speculate about 80 and eventually the 88 peak of 2014.
Jeez - that will help HLG margins - a 40 cent dividend next year or two?
Interestingly he also says the 10 year average is 74.3 cents, wow, didn't realise that. The 65 cents they suffered this year is 12.5% below ten year average. Might have to re-model my expectations @ 74 cents, currently expecting over $20m based on 70 cents for FY17. If we get up into the late 70's or early 80's it's BONANZA time for importers, (not so good for exporters).
Spooky thing with that average of 74 cents is that only about 20% (going from memory when I last did it) of the time is it within +/-2 cents - rest of time oscillating from highs to lows
That 74 cents goes back to the 70'cs though - is only about 66 this century
First time I ventured out of the country I got US$1,30 odd for my NZ$
I hold quite a few HLG but wouldn't be quite so bullish. Some of the FX gain will evaporate with competition and there are many other variables like weather and new competitors to keep in mind. I'm hoping they can deliver $17-18m+ next year but just because NZDUSD might be 75c instead of 65c does not make $20m certain or even likely imho.
I don't think HLG have ever seen themselves as a 'growth' company
Over the last few years they have refreshed / fine tuned their business to meeting the ever changing competitive landscape (just like they have done for over a hundred years). Sales growth over the last 5 years has been less than 2%pa
However the business generates heaps of cash. Spend some on keeping then business going and pay the rest out as dividends. You can do this when you don't have any debt.
Table shows their dividend history and % of operating cash flow paid out. Guessed F16 (and probably more than 30 cents) but still pretty healthy eh.
From F11 to F15 they have generated $120m of cash - reinvested $37m back into the business - and paid out $94m in dividends
Despite the gloom and despondency of this impending global domination of the NZ market I reckon HLG will be show resilience - and maintain those pretty health dividends for some time
So how much do you pay for a minimum 30 cent dividend - heaps more then $2.85 I would say - more like $3.75 to $4.00 these days
Closing in the $3 mark .....good stuff
Ya good stuff retails stats looking a little static the past two months.. To early to tell if a trend
Retail Watch data (from electronic card spend) showed clothing and footwear store August sales were up 6.2% on last year. Total retail sales up 3.1% so clothing doing very well
One would think that Hallensteins / Glassons etc recent sales in NZ would be looking pretty healthy
Getting close to 300 - still cheap as
So who has the correct data, on the radio they were quoting the infometrics data (??) suggested static/declining clothing and footwear for past two months...hmmmm
I bought more of these suckers a while back on a punt based on Rodger recommendation and I will not go sour if he is proven wrong for a change..I will buy him a beer instead...no depth or scale compared to AIR so buying for yield and the rising current...go figure.
That Retail Watch data is sourced from Westpac. Generally sort of ties in with Stats NZ Electronic Card Tranasaction monthly figures but gives more industry breakdown.
Stats NZ said total spend was up 3.7% on August last year
Probably the people on the radio were talking seasonally adjusted numbers .....which are flat / slightly down .....but being well ahead of last year is good
You been busy here today Raz ?
I like this bit
The 4 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Hallenstein Glassons Holdings Limited have a median target of 310.00, with a high estimate of 410.00 and a low estimate of 275.00. The median estimate represents a 10,552.92% increase from the last price of 2.91.
There are some market participants that they like Santa rally. Will there be such a rally for Glasson?
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-us...6B95GI20101210
Retail stocks could stand out in Santa Claus rally
Few index changes tomorrow, might like to weigh up your options if there's any possible short term opportunities there. Disc Hold Scales.
Sure your information is right? They traded a total of 2007 shares in today's closing process. This certainly can't be enough to fill any index fund?
Quote:
HLG was not in the NZX50 prior to close today and is not in the NZX50 after close today.
Or to put it another way, it was and is, as they say, outside the NZX50.
It was never made it to the play offs for promotion.
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
This is an old link and it has included Hallenstein Glasson as well.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/personal-f...ectid=11617933
Top cash earners on the NZ share market
Dated 6-Apr-2016.
Now if we had bought $10,000 of each of the seven at close that day then at close today (no reinvesting, no tax to pay or recoup) we would have (shares+cash):
PGW: $13,086
NZR: $7,368
MVN: $11,405
HLG: $9,952
STU: $9,804
AIR: $7,776
OIC: $7,377
for an overall loss of $3,231 (or 4.62%)
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
NBR article this morning on NZX retailers.
Notes that HLG profit is lowest since 2009. The reasons given are that they have "suffered from a lower exchange rate that increased the cost of offshore purchases, mild winter temperatures that prompted discounting of winter categories, and a lack of effective management at its Glassons business."
Oddly Kathmandu would have faced the first two conditions (possibly more so even for the second) yet they're been labelled as, "top performer." Still Di's back from fixing PPL, so she'll have Glassons' humming in no time.
Hey Roger, HLG share price over $3 -- good stuff eh
Was convinced $2.60 in July was about as low as it was going to go - and outlook for future bound to improve
Up 16% in less than 2 months with more to come
Ever since somebody on this forum mentioned that the likes of H&M could come to NZ, I've never seen HLG as something I want to invest in. It's like a time bomb waiting for some big foreign stores to come in and just whomp HLG. It could happen at any time, but currently I feel like we're just protected by NZ being a small market and generally not thought of by others as a location to set up a business. however, NZ is getting more and more popular and people are aware of it more and more now. In less than a decade I see a high risk of them getting some potentially crushing competition.
That said, HLG are a great vehicle for traders. I just wouldn't invest there anymore.
Full year out - numbers slightly better than what they said they would be and some interesting segmental numbers.
Thats history
The important part
Future Outlook - Group sales for the first 6 weeks of the year are +9%. The recovery in Glassons is well underway and we anticipate a much improved profit performance for the current trading period.
Jeez sales up 9% so far ....add in better margins....no wonder they are saying much improved profit performance for this year
Share price could respond favourably to this typically modest announcement from HLG
For you dividend hounds final of 16.5 cents same as last year. full year being 30 cents
With 'much improved profits' could get a bigger dividends in 2017
Way they going that 30 cents is guaranteed minimum - makes $3 share price look really super cheap with possibility if say 32/33 cents dividend
Roger would say thats a gross dividend yield of 13.8% guaranteed
Share price $3.15 now
Good stuff
More to come i reckon
So results poor - future looking good.
Glad to have got in early on this.
Back to the grindstone. :(
Best Wishes
Paper Tiger
Me back on board again after selling 20,000 @ 2.72c last month to to buy AIR. What a boo boo that was:D. Bought 10,000 at close at $3.14c this arvonoon, go booby go:t_up:.
Good for you for admitting your error, my recent one was to see some of my TME for $4.60!
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/8458...ts-profit-drop
Interesting to read the comments. Not all clear sky for Glassons.
Yes interesting, but I'm sure Glassons market research already told them this and they have already acted to try to 'find their way' again - if they were ever lost?
What did the story say - this years sales up 19% with improved margins. Whatever Di is doing appears to be working.
Whether what they sell is hopeless, outdated, unfashionable or whatever it can be too bad as they sell $84m odd of the stuff a year - not that much different from those per-2010 glory days mentioned in the article.
The comments under most articles in these news sites aren't really much different from many ST threads - give punters a chance and all the anti / negative (careful with my words here) stuff comes out. Human nature I suppose
Let's see if this share goes like AIR ST thread over time, possibly a little more run up before reality strikes. I don't care how much they sell unless they make a decent Buck. It's great to have such a lag between reality and sentiment. Still holding however always watching closely, even from afar in NYC.
They going to make a decent buck this coming year Raz - enough to pay a 33 cent dividend (cF16 was 30 cents). Expected cash flows will support that level dividend and it's only what they were paying out a few years ago.
What price punters pay for this - 4 bucks seem reasonable. And for thosewho likes to value on PE ratios that is a PE of less than 12
Geez with you, see weed and Paper Tiger on the register we must be on a winner. And best of all percy has joined us and everything he buys goes up - on average 48% so look out $4.50 plus.
But watch that squiggly line on the chart - just in case
Always admired HLG's inventory / margin management over the years - the key to their success in consistently generating strong cash flows
Four retailers reported last week - from my little database of stuff the table below highlights how good HLG are in this respect, and far superior to Kathmandu
HLG generate $6.36 Gross Margin from every $ of stock - KMD only $2.55
HLG has a Turn/Earn Ratio of 2.7 (very good) compared to KMD's 1.0. This is saying that HLG make 56.6% GM when they sell their stock and they do that 4.8 times a year (stock turns) - whereas KMD have a better margin at 62.6% but they only turn over their stock 1.7 times a year. Easy to see whose the most efficient / productive and has a much superior return on their investment in stock.
On all these measures HLG is by far the best
Just thought you would be interested
Very nice comparison of NZ retail, thanks for this Winner.
Graeme Popplewell the CEO said to the NBR that the F16 result was at “absolute bottom of the barrel” and that profit figures should increase in coming years.
My first rough cut forecast for F17 is assuming 5% sales growth, 2% points better margin and expenses up 2% which gives NPaT just over $20m
EPS 34 cents - merits a share price of ? -- where ? > $3.16 I reckon