Yes agreed....
For clarification here are the two specimens being discussed.....
http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/4393/nzdci8.gif
Xerof
Printable View
Yes agreed....
For clarification here are the two specimens being discussed.....
http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/4393/nzdci8.gif
Xerof
Hello Xerof
Thanks for the pic.
Just thinking that the yellow pattern probably falls into the CRAB* harmonics catagory.
*The CRAB is a harmonic pattern discovered by Scott Carney in 2000. This pattern is one of the most precise of all the harmonic patterns. The critical aspect of this pattern is the tight Potential Reversal Zone created by the 1.618 of the XA leg and an extreme (2.24, 2.618, 3.14, 3.618) projection of the BC leg.
Regards - arco
Hello Arco/Xerof
i am finding your posting quite challenging and have been using my calculator to work out the crab formation and how it relates to the nzd.its not hard to draw fib levels on metastock,but not so easy when faced with numbers like 2.24,2.168
math has never been my strong point so please correct me if i am wrong but to manually arrive at 1.618 extension of the XA leg, i took X-A times the diference by 1.618 and added that to point A
As follows.6440-.59300=.051 * 1.618=.0825 +.59300
=.67551
so to extrapolate to have a harmonic pattern do you mean that each leg has to be in the right Fib proportion to each other,whether its a Gartley/Butterfly or Crab so in the crab but not the other patterns
the BC projection leg would have to be one of the following numbers * the differnce of BC (2.24, 2.618, 3.14, 3.618) as per your post Arco and should be close to .67551 area
Cheers
Cadet Roddy
Hi Roddy
In Metastock you can add any Fib numbers without difficulty.
Right click for properties/retracement lines - and then add in value lines you requre.
However remember 2.24 converts to 224, and 3.618 to 361.8, etc
Now you should see the PRZ areas/confluences.
regards - arco
Hi Arco
thanks you for that Arco, will make things a lot easier!
kiwi moving south currently trading .6473
Cheers
Cadet Roddy
Don't fret, it's likely to only be a minor retracement.....under 64 cents would probably change the picture somewhat
http://img168.imageshack.us/img168/9274/nzdlw0.gif
Xerof
17/8....6560-6590 could even be possible, but at that point Mr Gann could put up some strong resistance.
Good to see Mr Gann managed to repel the invaders first advance and in doing so handed us circa 140 pips on a plate.
Thankyou once again Mr Gann - keep up the good work.
Your pal arco in QLD [8D]
Heres something a little different,basic theory i believe is price is supposed to remian within outside lines and have a preferance for the median /middle ground.
will be interesting to see if it can hold the .6420
area with Fib just below as well!
http://img68.imageshack.us/img68/6902/noname7bi8.jpg
cheers Cadet roddy
Placed a long trade at .6420 tading off the 15 min chart, thinking it had found support and Andrews Pitchfork had held only to be stopped out very quickly at 6390 something after Cullen comments!
USD seems to be strong across the board today,
cheers cadet roddy
Hi Roddy/Xerof
IMHO Pitchforks can be used selectively, but they should be confirmed using other signals for major benefit.
Now that manky ol' Crab is still giving off its bounty with a max 220 pips.
Are you still holding long XEROF.
Good weekend all
arco in QLD
No -I haven't had any positions in Kiwi for some months Arco. And yes, the Major indeed put up a particulary ferocious defence around that 6560/90 level - the enemy seems to be running for the hills at the moment [B)][B)]
regards
Xerof
Re mentioned recently on the Butterfly/Gartley thread...............
"Looking pretty strong at the mom.....depending on ones stance, an EOD reversal pattern btw 6600-6720 on the daily might be the catlyst for a nice short IMO".
6658 was the high this week and the weekly chart has printed a Harami pattern, with the EOD looking like it might complete a 3 Falling pattern next week.
Watching this one closely now for the possibility of a confirming reversal signal.
regards - arco
Hi Arco
Yes i have been watching this pairing as well and picked up a few pips on a straddle on last weeks annoucement,which never followed through.
also of interest is standard error channel,though i suspect its not a stand alone indicator each time it has hit the upper extreme it has retraced significantly further adding to the likehood of a reversal
it appears this butterfly might be double brooded?
http://img219.imageshack.us/img219/3949/noname03oc9.jpg
cheers cadet roddy
Hi Roddy
I don't personally find the SEC of any use in forex trading - it may be of more use in share trading where volume is available.
My charting tip - keep everything as simple as possible.
regards - arco
Hi All
Worth watching closely now....we are hovering within a potential reversal point IMO.
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/092206.gif
regards - arco
hope no one jumped in prematurely.... up 3/4 of a cent today....
I read on the global view forum a few days ago when quite a few were recommending shorting NZD just after the trade deficit figures came out and one of the older wiser posters said 'shorting the kiwi is fraught with difficulty'. I thought at the time that it didnt go down very far after that figure which struck me as being quite bullish
I might give this a go (short ) at 6720 level where we hit the 61.8 fib retracement from 71 ish.
Hi Peat/All
No one should have jumped short yet as there has been no confirmed reversal signal.
The chart I posted shows only the potential reversal zone to be aware of.
I have not entered short yet - still watching for that magic signal.
Regards - arco
Hi Arco,
i welcome any advice, thank you for your tip Yes i will try to keep it simple,
my comment about being double brooded was referring to the red admiral butterfly which can reproduce twice in the one cycle, just a little bit of rhetoric there; so for my future reference is this butterfly still valid after already having one retracement at at 127 ish
http://img98.imageshack.us/img98/6633/nonameadc2.jpg
cheers cadet roddy
Hi Roddy
Yes, I consider the Butterfly still in play. The reversal at 127 turned out to be just a short term profitable part of the normal wave action, but we can now keep our eye open for another nice reversal signal.
There is a Gann calc circa 6720 which could come into play (mentioned a few posts ago).
Regards - arco
the 161.8% target zone is looking very attractive at the moment. Looking for signs........
Xerof
i got a bit carried away with Fib over the weekend and drew up this
http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/1...4092006vt5.jpg
I wanted to show where I was drawing the fib from, for clarity and critique.
the fib time was an extra touch which almost matches the lows... perhaps the next low will be just after that final vertical line
Overhead Gann as mentioned seems to be causing some hesitation
NZ Produces Another Trade Deficit Shocker
26/09/2006
NZPANew Zealand's trade deficit in August almost hit a billion dollars, Statistics New Zealand reported.
The deficit came in at $961 million, well worse than the $780m economists had forecast.
The monthly shortfall pushed the August year deficit up to $6.547 billion, slightly down from $6.735 billion in the July year but again worse than economists' forecasts of $6.4 billion.
i thought we had a trade deficit figure for the quarter a few days ago.
arco - seeing as your online how close are we getting to what you would call a reversal here now? .... already down 50 from the rather perfectly achieved 6720
Hi Peat
Current action appears to be in the process of forming a possible Dark Cloud Cover or even Bearish Eng pattern on the EOD, - either of which would give a powerful signal.
And yes, Mr Gann came up trumps again for top picking/pickers, (as mentioned circa 6720)....so a cheeky short at that has given a nice bonus.
regards - arco
;)
Hi Peat/Arco
Just came across the wire/its all good for the current short!
Comments from RBNZ"s Cullen have taken the legs out from under Kiwi. He said
that the central bank may keep rates on hold through 2008 and that the market
took a harder message than intended from the monetary policy statement. GDP
probably fell in Q2 from Q1, he said. Kiwi has slipped to 0.6610 from 0.6660 on
the comments, carried by Bloomberg. Most provocatively, he says kiwi may fall to
0.40. Tell us what you really feel, Mike. 0.6650 is solid resistance on
rebounds 0.6570/75 is support. Jamie.Coleman@Thomson.com
funny how news that impacts always coincides with Fib/Gann.... ;)
Altho its beneficial to NZ and its what the RBNZ want I'm surprised that the Minister is sticking his beak in re rates. I thought the Bank was independent.
Thanks Roddy
Ah Peat....thats Quantum Interconnectedness.
Physicists and even arco and Major Gann have come to realize that the universe is interconnected in much subtler ways than had once been thought.
The interconnectedness of the parts of the whole allows us to realize our/the oneness with all things.
arco
No fewer than four articles discussing the overvalued NZ$ in the Asian FT.
Micheal's mug on the front page and lead article in the Companies and Markets section.
A lot of marketing going into talking down the dollar on his wee OE.
and now the Danes (jyskebank) have a go - from todays report by Lone Olesen
Bad evidence keeps piling up against the NZD. The latest
surprising rise due to the new rather hawkish stance from the
RNBZ is thereby starting to loose its magic.
Bad trade figures, another historic high reading on the balance of
payment deficit (9.4% of GDP), and furthermore a VERY
aggressive finance minister - Mr. Cullen - constantly trying to
pressure the NZD/USD by verbal intervention, finally made the
yield addicts surrender in the first round.
History does'nt repeat - but it often rhymes - keep that in mind as
the present situation brings memories of last year and not least the
start of 2006 alive anew. A period where NZD after the same
economic hardship, and a just as aggressive Mr. Cullen fell off a
cliff, which took many market participants by surprise.
In the wake of Cullen's latest appearance, where he bluntly
revealed that a NZD/USD around 40.00 wouldn't surprise him at
all, the cross is now steering towards troubled waters. A definite
break/close below 65.50 would open up for a revisit with our first
target at 64. Be aware though that once 64 gives way to the
downside, we might be in for a new levels below the latest bottom
at 59.20.
NZD/USD looks like an accident waiting to happen. Best skip the
presumably attractive yield pick up, as it could come at a much too
costly price.
Hi Arco/All
Have you any analysis Arco on how far the current short on the Kiwi will extend to.
as you will be aware it has fallen through the 127% level,would it be reasonable to assume we could see 100% fib level .6425 if it breaks 6520 which is current uptrend line
i have two shorts in play .6675 and 6592,
I ask the question because i tend to exit trades to early on hourly charts etc instead of letting my profits run!
A good recent example is i went short gbp 18939
and exited with only 39 pips missing a further 200 pips.
cheers cadet roddy
I was thinking yesterday that kiwi would become a sell again at .6635 (it reached .6620). Targets unknown but 30-50 pip trailing stop is one way of approaching it.
Im currently flat tho.
Hi Peat
Waiting for a reversal signal to confirm a possible EW1-2
regards - arco
What do you guys make of this one. Rising wedge on the hourly ready to break?
seems we're all playing it via the AUD huds.... which is going a storm!
Cheers peat.
Re: AUD/NZD, looking pretty good alright. I have a small long on from Wednesday, thanks to you guys and you're informative posts.
From ANZ
NZD/USD May Test US$0.6880 If RBNZ Hikes
NZD/USD entering consolidation phase in preparation for extension into 0.6680-0.6720 zone on next week's expected central bank rate hike, says ANZ Bank; pair last 0.6638 vs yesterday's 0.6624 local close. If RBNZ confirms market expectations by hiking rates, continues with hawkish line adopted at Sept. review, NZD/USD may rise as high as 0.6880. Still, with rate hike already priced in, there's a high risk NZD/USD will return to 0.6400-0.6500 even if RBNZ goes ahead with hike, with market focus turning to Australia. Support pegged at 0.6610 today, topside cap 0.6660.
RBNZ Bollard May Decide To Buy Time - BNZ
RBNZ Governor Bollard may yet decide against a rate hike despite there being "strong case" for one, says Bank of NZ; tips RBNZ to hold fire, on view Bollard may well feel that, compared to signposts outlined in September policy statement, economic data on balance haven't provided enough of an upside surprise to justify hike. Says governor might cite higher-than-expected NZD/USD, falling headline inflation as excuse to buy more time, while simply warning of another hike. Tomorrow's 3Q CPI to be watched carefully, but unless outcome significantly varies from consensus of +0.8% on-quarter, +3.6% on-year, market pricing for hike likely kept at 70% going into Thursday's rate review
Hello all
Here's a Pitchfork chart (cus I know Peat is getting right into them now ;))
Looks good..... ya!!
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/nzd_102506.gif
Sunshine Coast 26 C and very nice.
regards - arco
no change to interest rates.
Morning Peat
Yes, I think the charts have been showing us the picture for some time. Nice fall already towards the blue fork tyne.
Regards - arco - [8D] its very hot already on the SS Coast and only 7.55 am
Bollard Leaves Rates Unchanged
26/10/2006 10:17 AM
NZPA
Home owners, businesses, and unions can breath easier after Reserve Bank governor Alan Bollard left the Official Cash Rate (OCR) unchanged at 7.25 percent on Thursday.
Dr Bollard said he could not rule out another rate rise in the current cycle and any easing of policy remained a considerable way off.
"The balance of inflation risks remains skewed to the upside," he said in his regular six-weekly review of the OCR.
With inflation running outside the bank's 1-3 percent target range for five quarters, it was always going to be a tight call whether he hiked.
A slim majority of economists had forecast he would raise the rate, even though the economy has been sluggish for over a year.
However, Wednesday's Consumer Price Index rise of 0.7 percent in the September quarter was lower than anticipated, resulting in the annual rate falling from 4.0 percent to 3.5 percent.
"Since our September Monetary Policy Statement, there has been a significant improvement to the near-term inflation outlook, mainly as a result of the decline in oil prices," Dr Bollard said.
He said the bank expected lower fuel prices, together with the recent rebound in the exchange rate and a change in the make-up of CPI to produce an unusually low December quarter CPI reading.
These were however only temporary factors and, apart from the likely favourable effect on inflation expectations, were not expected to materially affect medium-term inflation.
He said the policy outlook was little changed from September when he changed tack, saying another tightening could be needed, whereas at mid-year he had indicated he was done with the tightening phase.
Dr Bollard said indicators of medium-term inflation pressures remained significant.
Modest economic growth in the second quarter had been in line with the bank's forecasts and there had been a further rebalancing of demand away from the domestic sector and towards exports.
Continued strength in most of New Zealand's international markets and a downward trending exchange rate would support that rebalancing, he said.
However, on the domestic front, the housing market remained resilient supported by net immigration and continued house lending expansion by banks at low interest margins. Dr Bollard expressed concern that falling petrol prices would fuel a pick-up in household spending.
While inflation pressures appeared to be abating, there were some indicators of resources pressures. High capacity utilisation and a tight labour market "continue to signal caution".
Dr Bollard refused to take questions to explain his decision.
The decision not to hike would put downward pressure on the New Zealand dollar, particularly against its counterpart in Australia, where inflation has risen above New Zealand's rate and where the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to hike rates at least twice more this year.
The New Zealand dollar, at U66.17c shortly before the decision, has risen around 10 percent in the last quarter, surprising currency experts and hurting exporters.
The announcement caused the NZ dollar to fall against its US counterpart to US65.74c immediately afterwards.
Against the Australian dollar the kiwi dropped from A86.85c to A86.42c.
Find this item at:
http://xtramsn.co.nz/businessandmone...481810,00.html
Hello All
Evaluating this cross using the Ichimoku (one glance) technique on the monthly chart.
In the past Tenkan crosses (TX) on the monthly chart have been very reliable. The TX crossed a few months ago, and more recently the action has retraced north to the Kijun (red) which appears to be acting as resistance.
The whole scenario is looking bearish now, and IMO we could see a nice drop in the NZD. One other point to remember is the bearish Head and Shoulders that would form if/once the price drops to the circa 5950.
regards - arco
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/nzd.usd_m110706.gif
on a shorter time frame arent we seeing a bullish gartley tho?
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/1...0112006nu7.jpg
Peat
Maybe - but remember Gartleys are notorious for developing on into BF's.
Also the previous chart is a monthly, so fluctuations of a minor degree make very little difference on the greater scale.
We need to check that chart again at the end of the month.
arco
Shorts in play since .6670
See how we go, but possible 5 looks like it may be near the end, so may abc before continuing it's next leg down.
Tight stop and will reset on bounce
Cheers
Slam
damn retail trade[:I]
tempted to see this as a new opportunity to long the AUD/NZD
Hi peat
Yes went long again this morning AUD NZD.
May be premature but around 1500 is the uptrand support
Cheers
Slam
Hi Arco,
i havent seen the ichimoku before,is it very reliable,
do you know where i could download Ichimoku from into metastock 7.2
Are the Tenken crosses moving averages
Have been short kiwi,but defying the odds has traded as high as .6820 this morning,so on the sidelines at present,will be interesting to see if 6720 will now become support or whether the present levels represent opportity to go short again.
Morning Roddy
Ive got MS 7.02 and Ichi is in my indictor list. Let me know if you cant find it and I will send you the MS code. As to reliability, I would say it works better on longer term charts.
The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo was developed by Goichi Hosoda, a Japanese newspaper writer, writing under the pen name "Ichimoku Sanjin." He developed this charting technique before World War II, and offered it to the public when he published his book in 1969.
Ichimoku translates as "a glance" or "one look." Kinko Hyo translates as "the table of equilibrium" or "balance table." Hence a chart displaying this indicator provides a broad look at the prices in a single view. You should be able to look at the chart and know at a glance whether to buy or sell.
Three key time periods are used to calculate the five individual plots used in the indicator. These times periods are based on the trading conditions at the time the indicator was created: Japan in the 1930's. At the time, a trading week was six days instead of the five days we are used to today. Some traders may wish to alter the time periods to reflect the change in trading days.
9 periods = one and a half weeks (now 7.5 periods. use 7 or 8)
26 periods = one month (now 22 periods)
52 periods = two months (now 44 periods)
The Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator is composed of the following five plots, in addition to the closing prices.
Tenkan-sen. The standard line. This plot provides signals when paired with the Kijun-sen. The default periods for this plot is 9. The calculation for this plot is (Highest High + Lowest Low)/2. The highest high is the highest high over the last specified number of time periods. By default, this is the highest high of the last 9 periods. The other highest highs and lowest lows are calculated the same way.
Kijun-sen. The turning line. This plot provides signals when paired with the Tenkan-sen. The default periods for this plot is 26. The calculation for this plot is also (Highest High + Lowest Low)/2. However, the values are taken from a 26 periods time frame instead of a 9 periods time frame.
Senkou Span A. The first span. This plot creates the Kumo (cloud) when paired with Senkou Span B. The default periods for this plot is 52. The calculation for this plot is (Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen)/2.
Senkou Span A. The second span. This plot creates the Kumo (cloud) when paired with Senkou Span A. The default periods for this plot is 52. The calculation for this plot is (Highest High + Lowest Low)/2.
Chikou Span. The delayed line. This plot is simply the close plotted the desired number of time periods in the past. The default periods for this plot is 26. In this case, today's close would be plotted 26 days ago.
The Ichimoku indicators are used together as one set of signals. If the signals do not agree, the chart is unreliable. When all three signals are in agreement, the signal is strong.
Tenkan-sen / Kijun-sen. A buy signal is generated when the Tenkan-sen crosses above the Kijun-sen. A sell signal is generated when the Tenkan-sen crosses below the Kijun-sen. The Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen can be used as support and resistance.
Senkou Span A / Senkou Span B. The area between the two Spans is the Kumo, or cloud. A buy signal is generated when the close crosses above the cloud. A sell signal is generated when the close crosses below the cloud. Near the intersections of Span A and Span B, the market has a tendency to become chaotic. The Senkou Spans can also be used as support or resistance. When the close is above the cloud, the Spans act as two levels of support. When the close is below the cloud, the Spans act as two levels of resistance.
Chikou Span / Close. A buy signal is generated when the Chikou Span crosses above the close. A sell signal is generated when the Chikou Span crosses below the close.
regards - arco
theres also some interesting stuff on investopedia on the Ichimoku
http://www.investopedia.com/articles...6/ichimoku.asp
http://www.investopedia.com/articles.../04/072104.asp
this bit in partic.
Strong signals - A strong buy signal occurs when the Tenkan-Sen crosses above the Kijun-Sen from below. A strong sell signal occurs when the opposite occurs. The signals must be above the Kumo.
Normal signals - A normal buy signal occurs when the Tenkan-Sen crosses above the Kijun-Sen from below. A normal sell signal occurs when the opposite occurs. The signals must be within the Kumo.
Weak signals - A weak buy signal occurs when the Tenkan-Sen crosses above the Kijun-Sen from below. A weak sell signal occurs when the opposite occurs. The signals must be below the Kumo.
Arco/Peat
thanks yes Arco that would be great if you could send Ichimoku,i have been through indicator lists but its not there!
Thanks Peat, i will check out the links!
cheers roddy
Roddy
You can download it directly from Equis here.
http://www.equis.com/Customer/Resour...cle.aspx?Id=17
regards - arco
USD strengthening accross the board. I think there may be at least a short term peak in the kiwi. Hence went short @ 70.85. The bigger question is the right hand shoulder of a massive H & S now forming? Eitherway major resistance in the whole 70.85 - 71.00 area. I can see this coming back at least 200pips quite quickly - 100 pips so far.
Wow. That was a real quick 200+ pips. It seems a few long positions were quickly being unwound. I had my stop a bit too tight, but still managed a 140 pip gain. Looks like on the short term will come back to at least 69.00 cents - will look to re-enter depending on indicators at that stage.
interesting how Moody seem to disregard our debt and deficit....
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10418830
Hmmmm. Another example of how the exception has become the rule. It is so "normal" now for most countries to have large debt and deficits that the "officials" more or less justify that things are at an acceptable level. I wouldn't be suprised that it remains this way until the whole system isn't so "awash" with cash. Of course the longer that goes on for the more pain and less chairs there will be once the music finally stops!
Finally we are getting some movement. Patience has certainly been a virtue with this one. For those who are looking for the Kiwi to fall I reckon .6820 is the key. If that level is clearly broken (breaking the low from early Jan + breaking a 6mth trendline) then it could be all on, quite quickly heading to .6500 - .6600..................On the otherhand if it holds then we could have another go at the .7200 level. Only time will tell!
weekly graph here shows a rather disturbing head and shoulders in the making (but not completed so I'm not allowed to comment right ;) ) but there are definitiely two shoulders perfectly matched at 0.71 around a slightly lopsided head
http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/9...feb2007xq5.jpg
Am I correct in thinking though, that one should only trade them when they break through the neckline hence this has to fall to 0.60 before we sell it with a target of 0.4.
So all a bit pie in the sky at this stage but something I noticed over the weekend.
Strictly speaking you are proabably right in saying one shouldn't jump until the neckline break has happened.............But yes, doesn't this one (so far) look so tempting and juicy! My theory is if other signals are starting to give notice then take action but with good stops in place.
Kiwi currently appears to be back filling, perhaps back to the 0.69 region - watching & waiting!
Hi guys I think much the same,as if I see a pattern forming and think it is going to test "X",then jump on as long as there are enough pips before "X",then you can set a stop just above or below "X" so if doesn't go through your safe,and if does then your in the money.
To me this is often safer than buying at "X",not a great example but look at my usd/jpy chart I will post in a tick.
Cheers
Miner
Hi all
Been following this H&S for a few months now
I have gone short twice now when over .7 has failed;)
Working out nicely so far
Trailing stop picks up the pips.
Will continue to do so for the next year or so[:0]
Cheers
Slam
NZD/USD - Nearing a Short Term Top?
Tuesday, 20 February 2007 14:07:45 GMT
Written by Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist
Is NZD/USD ready to reverse? Let’s see how our Trend Reversal Thermometer list stacks up:
Slim chance of Short Term Top in NZD/USD
The NZD/USD has staged an impressive rally over the past week and today’s candle suggests the possibility of a turn. However our picking tops and bottoms thermometer indicates that there is only a slim chance for a reversal. The only technical supports that we have for a reversal are the JPercentile indicator on the daily chart and Elliott Wave formation. Only a weekly basis, the JPercentile indicator still points to potential gains. This is supported by the fact that the currency pair gapped open on Sunday night. There is no significant support and resistance level until 0.7100, which is essentially 100 pips away from here. Risk reversals are right in the middle of the band and NZD/USD volatility which is at 9.40 percent is not conducive for a top. Therefore even though it may be tempting to look for weakness in the NZD/USD here, our thermometer suggests that you wait for a test and failure of the 0.7100 level first.
With the latest talk being a NZD/USD of 80, how many times has the call come out of parity of the NZD/AUD which has never eventuated?
My guess is that the NZD/USD may go up short-term, fail to hit 80 then start its decline...
Ahhhh.
This latest movement is just beautiful! If she breaks down through 67.40 then 66.90 there could be a big capitulation to the downside. Perhaps a suprise "no change" to the OCR on Thursday will do the business. On the other hand this is starting to look oversold so I'm starting to tighten stops a little more now.
I closed out my long USD position at .6794 after a quick run this morning. I probably should have put a stop in place at say .6800 and let it run further, but I am still getting the confidence to rely on a stop order to enable me to step away from the screen while in a trade.
Perhaps my personality is suggesting that i am a 'control freak'?[:p]
Since Jan 5 is NZD drawing out a expanding triangle formation?
Described in John J.Murphys 'Technical Analysis of Financial Markets' as usually ocurring at major tops and representing a market that is out of control and unusually emotional.
Rare and difficult to trade the article below suggest waiting for a doji
see http://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/...gformation.asp
Hi Peat
Yes, sometimes also called a Megaphone top.
I'm firstly looking at the area 7202-7230 for
signs of possible resistance / reversal.
regards -arco
my fib levels suggested 7197 :)
Tues EOD high of 7203 formed a Shooting Star which could mean the
bulls are running out of steam.
A nice long black today would complete an Evening Star pattern
and give a bearish message.
regards -arco
yes I've shorted from 7176 with stop at 7233
my oanda daily candles are now looking dark cloudish
Well my book says the broadening formation is rare and yet hey, the kiwi had one just over a year ago and look what happened after that! Is history going to repeat itself?
http://img68.imageshack.us/img68/853...megaphovg0.jpg[/URL]
I've also added in my fibonacci 161% and 261% and 423% extensions. These are taken as the extensions of the original wave from 0 to 100 and provide resistance and potential turning points.
The first two (on the left and in the middle of the picture )are extending down.
The last fib on the right shows upward extension from the original wave at daily closes of 5958 to 6252. 161 and 261% extensions are less respected here but so far the 423% has held.
The up and down extensions seem to have a lot in common in terms of resistance levels.
Nice chart Peat
Will history repeat?
Exporters hail Kiwi's fall
08 March 2006
By MARTA STEEMAN
Exporters are cheering the almost US1.5 cent fall in the Kiwi dollar and the prospect of futher declines in the next six months.
The dollar dropped overnight on Monday and yesterday to an 18-month low of US65.12c caused by international investors concerned about the New Zealand economy.
Part of the fall is due to investors expecting the gap between high Kiwi interest rates and those of other countries to lessen in coming months as official interest rates rise in the United States and Japan. "
The US isn't raising rates this time and NZ is......
Unfortunately Bollard and the Bank economists haven't accepted the obvious empirical relationship between relativity of international interest rates and exchange rates. They seem to think that microeconomic activity will change or at least explain the world economy. The only way NZRB interest rate movements will affect inflation in this country is to force a recession. Bollard took a step closer last month. His bag of tricks is dead unless he lowers interest rates.
Hi Peat
Here you will find some interesting info on Broadening Tops from Bulkoski.
http://www.thepatternsite.com/bt.html
regards -arco
Gidday
Accumulate USD
Regards
Ps. They come in different colour bank notes now :-)
do you have a rationale there Contrarian.
This current situation on the NZD is a good demonstration of the way the fib ext method is suppose to operate and here , even works on a short term view.
Note how each ext beyond 100 i.e to either 161 or 261 extension has always retraced back to its previous level eg 100 or 161. That is the most certain and hence tradeable part of the chart pattern.
http://img100.imageshack.us/img100/8...4042007cy9.jpg[/URL]
- Ignore the price box with the high lows etc, that was a random event.
its miners u's innit!
Keep up the analysis, Peat. I am finding it very educational...:)
I see that the 3-minute NZDUSD has been in a trading range between 7239 & 7255 since about 14:30 NZT (approx 5.5hrs), testing both levels twice.
Whichever way it breaks, it should have some momentum...
As an aside to the above comment, using 7255 as the high and the 2-day low of 7186, there is a fib retracement of 23.6% at 7239!
Therefore, it appears that the trading range fits the fib levels based on the current move.
I could post a chart, but not too sure how too...
Steve,re posting charts,http://sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?T...3&whichpage=40
Cheers
Miner
so.... I will concede the broadening formation has broken out on the upside, as Bulkoski said there was a reasonable chance of it doing. Resistance at just above 72 was found, but overcome. Ah the pain of trading forex.
Hi Peat
Perhaps Mr Gann will assist circa 7324, however
theres always the old Mar 05 top at 7467 that
could act like a magnet.
regards - arco
Thanks Miner!Quote:
quote:Originally posted by miner
Steve,re posting charts,http://sharetrader.co.nz/topic.asp?T...3&whichpage=40
Cheers
Miner
I will have a go and see what I can post on here...
Kiwi is looking slightly vunerable.
I opened a short yesterday and closed it this morning for 23 pips. (My auto target of 50 was not quite reached overnight).
Anyway, there may be another opportunity considering yesterdays black EOD candle.
http://img129.imageshack.us/img129/3544/kiwiuv5.gif
regards - arco http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Bl...ies/coffee.gif
article published y'day before todays rate hike....
http://stuff.co.nz/4078120a1865.html
Hi Peat
Bad Stuff [:0]
......So they might be quite surprised if it reaches 7890,
or even more. Its very likely IMHO.
regards - arco
Hi All,
think kiwi wont go much higher for awhile as resent rate increase was anticipated,shorted from 50 yeste4rday,missed todays chance.
i know d doesnt quite fit the perfect form! cheers roddy
http://img176.imageshack.us/img176/9641/kiwivv6.jpg
Hey Roddy
Thats what I call a 'Drop Leg' Butterfly.
They do appear occasionally. Sometimes they
work - sometimes they don't.............
regards - arco
http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Bl...ies/coffee.gif
hi Arco
seems like a good name Drop Leg,
describes my trading at times!,as in
sometimes works - somtimes doesnt
regards
roddy
Strong move overnight....
.........onwards and upward towards 7890 perhaps
Good Weekend All - arco
http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Bl...ies/coffee.gif
What's happened to the dollar in the last few minutes, down a cent against most others.
Sydney, June 11: the RBNZ confirmed that they have intervened saying that current levels of the NZD are "exceptional" and "unjustified". They added that the intervention doesn"t prejudge future direction of monetary policy.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by The Plunger
What's happened to the dollar in the last few minutes, down a cent against most others.
Cheers
Slam
Anyone a contrarian.........maybe try a quick buy
(even if its a dead cat bounce)
http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Bl...ies/coffee.gif
I'm with you arco
I think the RBNZ will have there work cut out on this one.
Cheers
Slam
Hi All
Can the RBNZ beat down this Butterfly?
.............only time will tell
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/nzd.usd_w.gif
regards - arco
Ms Gann says. Bit of a bounce at 7403 perhaps.
Mmmm....another large injection required perhaps......
http://www1.bestgraph.com/gifs/econo...relires-05.gif
Quote:
quote:
New Zealand Dollar declined ignoring RBNZ first intervention in 22 years
The Dollar rallied to a 3 ½ month high against the Swiss franc on Monday, with US 10-year Treasury yields over 5% and investors largely ignoring the New Zealand central bank's first market intervention in 22 years. The NzdUsd posted its largest decline in 15 months after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand sold its own currency, but there was only limited impact on carry trades in which investors buy high-yielding currencies like the New Zealand funded by borrowing low-cost currencies such as the Swiss Franc or the Japanese Yen. The RBNZ intervention to curb the NZD came four days after the central bank surprised markets by raising its key interest rate to 8%, the highest benchmark rate in the industrialized world.
Despite RBNZ intervention, key daily chart support for NZD/USD at 0.7470 held firm, and the RBNZ's inability to make the NZD technically weaker could undermine their credibility. The 'failure' of yesterday's intervention to technically break down the NZD raises the possibility that the RBNZ may intervene again to try and do some more damage.
With no major US economic data on Monday, dealers kept liquid currencies, other than the New Zealand Dollar, in narrow ranges, waiting for the may US retail sales report on Wednesday.