Originally Posted by
Maverick
Ok..I've figured out my error of thinking. Been talking to a good mate (who's nickname is truely "goose" - no surprises there) and my fault is to consider the TOTAL SUM volume to be fully resold 6 yrs later during one year. In fact, doh, its spread over six years so 2012 volume of 1646 total SUM units divided by a six year tenure = 274 units sold p/a. Which is approximately about right.
sooo.... I can now deduct that 6 years from now the DMFees will be today's total units of 3732 units divided by six years will be = 622 units.
it would be safe to assume that you could draw a graph between now and then to estimate how many resales will occur in the following six years.
I' m sorry to take up so much sharetrader space to figure this out but I got there eventually.
the trick now is to forward calaculate the growing DMFs and add expected new sale margins and resale margins to get the expected underlying profits . That shouldn't be too hard but not tonight.
thankyou Beagle and Winner for responding.