Amazing story right here but buying at these levels would require huge round things, I couldn't imagine even entertaining the idea.
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Xero to head $100b 'Aussie Nasdaq' What do you make of this? Sounds like a go go to me. Accounting technology giant Xero will head the Australian Securities Exchange's new technology index to be unveiled today, giving investors the chance to invest in the fastest-growing segment of the market in one trade.
What goes up must come down?
Been hit pretty hard lately. Will businesses no longer need accounting software as a result of the virus or has the heady run just left reality too far behind and we are returning to fair value?
I think is more of the case of profit taking actually. I wished I have sold a few @ 89+. But never mind... I made several mistake in the past jumped in and out too many times and were at all of the wrong time too... I think I will ride out the storm this time around and most likely will buy more. It is in my opinion only that I think Xero is no where near peaked.
Given that Xero is a NZ company (though now only ASX listed) and analysed by lots of pristine and no doubt 100% pure NZ analysts decided I to include them in my wee exercise assessing the quality of the predictions of our analysts.
So - how did the analysts do with predicting XRO's performance over the last 12 months?
XRO's shareprice peaked in February 2019 at A$49.05 and analysts (consensus) forecast for February 2020 was A$48.61, which means analysts predicted the SP to slightly (1%) drop over the last 12 months. They have been woefully wrong - the XRO shareprice in February 2020 actually peaked at A$89.00, i.e. instead of the forecasted slight drop of 1% did punters get a 81% rise. A monumental fail for the analysts, but nice for the punters who didn't trusted them and bought anyway :);
Looking into the consensus buy recommendation - it was in February 2019 a strong "HOLD"(5.8/10) - i.e. analysts said that the share will slightly outperform the NZX. NZX went up by 21% and TPW went up by 81%, i.e. XRO outperformed the NZX50 by 60%! This would have been a screeaming buy, not a hold. Nice for holders, but not really a convincing analyst forecast. I call the quality of the forecast a fail.
I am doing this exercise as well with other NZX listed stocks - the overview is here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...arket-analysts
13 stocks checked so far (checking for each consensus and buy recommendation);
Consensus shareprice forecasts correct: 1/13; analyst hitrate: 7.7%
Consensus recommendation vs NZX50 correct: 4/13; analyst hitrate: 31%
Interesting to see Xero recovering and not all that far off its high now. Given the state of the world these days it seems likely that quite a few of Xero's clients will go under and that will impact their outlook.
Maybe their customers are more savvy than the average! Could be.