Not good today and maybe next week, next month.....
But in 10 years I would stock up big time if I were a betting man....and I am
Printable View
No mention of how new units unsold.
What puzzles me that over H217, H118 and H218 (the last three half years) the number of new units delivered exceeded the number of new sales by 191. Maybe 71 of these sold in the last quarter but I also wonder how many new units were delivered in the quarter as well.
Seems to suggest that at least 120 new units (more if any delivered in the last quarter) remain in limbo and unsold.
Maybe what’s counted as new sales isn’t the same as new deliveries....I have no idea
Julian’s quarterly announcements are getting more obtuse as time marches on
Hi BP and Winner,
Check out page 23 of FY18 report;
un-contracted new builds ;stock FY16 =136, FY17=204. FY18=319.
We are told the late deliveries of a bunch of units (133) was why the apparent blowout of empty new builds, sounds very reasonable.
I was hoping for a good lot of these units to be sold this quarter but it obviously has not happened. Julian has said that its taking longer for people to sell their homes.
I`ve done a quick search on house sale times and blow me down, he`s totally right.
Average days to sell a house in Auckland, 2016=30 days, 2017=35 days, 2018= 40 days, so far this year 55 days. I live in Wanganui where house seem to be selling withing a week or 2 (its booming down here-but SUM arn`t trying to sell their new builds here- perhaps that explains why resales are doing ok , they might be more in the provinces)
So clearly the average time to sell a new unit of 3 months has changed. Plus I noted that in the first quarter of any year the "sales days required" really spike- like double. (this is reflected in the SUM sales starting slow and consistently increasing later in the year.
With this information, unloading the late delivery stock was never going to happen in just 1 quarter-especially the first one. The historical 3 months ave to sell a unit should now be pushed out to out say 4 -6 months , depending on the time of year.
Sooo.... I fully accept Julian's reason for the FY18 stock over hang and these poor sales figures. I do not think the wheels are falling off, but will be looking extremely closely at the next sales figures.
39c drop or 6% as of now, appears to show that they was huge prior speculation of a strong sales update, which didn't occur. I'm in SUM and the other main retirement companies for the long term, so a daily fluctuation doesn't really concern me. I believe like many others in our chat group that the tail winds will come to the industry as more and more baby boomers reach retirement.
Oceania and Summerset have much different year ends (one in winter and one in summer) but both rave on about things being weighted to the second half of the year
Building and sellingbthings things obviously not afected by seasonal (as in weather) things
Come along to the annual meeting and have a chat with Julian afterwards. You'll find he's a straight shooter no B.S. kind of guy.
Good post Maverick. I have learned from experience not to get too hung up on any one quarter's sales result. I am just over 90% invested in the market which is about as high as I ever want to get, (I like having a minimum of 10% in cash), but if I had some spare cash I would be topping up on OCA and SUM today.
Interesting. I used to work in a quite large NZ company with mainly international sales - and we didn't sell retirement units but high tech stuff. Our second half was always much stronger than our first - even after shifting the end of the FY by 6 months! Put it to people being motivated by achieving agreed end of the financial year targets - I am sure there are as well in SUM SUM bonuses dependent on the Eoy figures. Positive motivation is always good ;);