This is just a splash in the pan but helps its the people that read this morning paper
and said "Look Dear" someone untied the knot don't you think we should get SOME..
"YES DEAR"............
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Wish I didn't sell 50% off around the 155-162 mark as I picked up quite alot at 1.50-1.52
Still made a decent gain but if only I had held on to my full 100k shares :(
I've sold off the majority of my holdings today with an intention to rebuy. If this is the beginning of the full recovery in equities, then I will regret what I've done today lol.
Yes, but is this really strength? This is not too different from what happened back in May. A few tidbits of good news in a market hungry for "green shoots" and the shares rocketed up. Then a little bad news sent the market crashing back down again.
A lot of technical analysis posted here seem a bit convenient. It's easy to spot patterns in hindsight.
I'm not saying I don't believe it has its uses. I use a mix of fundamental & technical analysis to make my decisions but at the end of the day it's hard to prove whether you were "right" or "lucky" unless you've been doing it for a long time or have done a huge volume of trades.
At this stage, fundamentally I believe there is still a long way up to go. But I've fallen to the temptation of short term trading right now and I think theres a fairly good chance we will see another dip in equities as soon as some news comes out which puts doubts into investors minds.
I got the impression that AIA are the landlords to the proposed new Novotel hotel Minimoke. That means they will be banking the rent cheques without having to worry about the ups and downs of hotel management. Your post Minimoke does highlight to everyone where IMO the future of AIA will be in the next few years though. AIA are landlords. And like all consumer powered landlords, I think they are going to find themselves 'overrented' over the next few years.
Whatever it says in the rental agreements, increases in rent can ultimately only be paid for by an increase in foot traffic or an increase in dollars spent per passenger on the way through. If those things aren't happening then ultimately a business model based on that premise is doomed. Ratchet rental clauses will only delay the inevitable.
Air New Zealand has recently started serving up meals, rather than snacks, again on some domestic flights. How is that going to translate to more money being spent at the Auckland Airport terminal food courts? Also there are more spare seats on domestic flights these days which ultimately must mean less flights, and less income for AIA. International flights are already 'officially' in decline and Airport international charges are for the first time in memory being reduced to 'meet the market'.
AIA is in quite a different market now, compared to when there was a bid on the table at around $3 last year. Back then we had an outlook of increasing flights, increasing yields and a gaggle of bidders in the background pushing that potential airport bid price higher. Selectively shareholders from those days neglect to mention that the bid which almost made it to the table was only a partial bid anyway. So the memory of that bid was rather better than the reality.
Don't get me wrong, I think AIA is an excellent company, probably one of the five best managed companies on the NZX. But AIA is also priced by the market accordingly. And that IMO, makes it a lousy investment prospect.
Yes if there is a takeover offer, the price will go up from here. But you can say the same about *every* listed share. AIA currently trades on a PE of 20+ IIRC. This is expensive, very expensive, and will require a lot of profit growth to justify this kind of pricing at a fundamental level. With real profits actually forecast to decline, I reckon the fair value price of AIA is actually around $1.30 from an operational perspective, and there is downside risk from there too.
As for the upside potential well, it is hard to see the Saudi's coming back after being rebuffed in public as unsuitable shareholder candidates. Any future Canadian pension fund deal on even close to parity with the last deal will have to be based on the idea of jacking up AIA company debt and allowing cashflow to fund the higher interest bill. I doubt if any potential supporting banks would allow such a deal these days. So just where is the competition going to come from to bid the share price higher? Is there a realistic prospect for any bid of *any* sort to arise in 2009/2010?
When I read this thread, I read the story of a whole lot of rear vision mirror investors. The rear visioners think that because the sharemarket has had a good quarter the credit crunch effectively never happened and we can just go back to how it was before.
Furthermore that with one pronouncement PM John Key, on simplifying the overseas investment rules, AIA is suddenly 'really' worth $3 again. My message to such investors is 'get real'. It wouldn't surprise me to see AIA as the worst performing share of all in the NZX10 over the next twelve months. It is a real worry to me, as a reflection of the investment IQ of this forum, that so many here think that AIA is a share with so much potential. Investors in AIA today are not going to lose all of their capital, I grant you. But I would be equally surprised if they outperformed the index. AIA at anywhere near today's price levels is IMO one to avoid for investment purposes.
SNOOPY
discl: do not hold AIA
The councils should start buying some AIA shares at these levels.
AIA is a monopoly airport and it deserve a premium. I always top up my holding when it is on a dip and I have NO exit strategy.