Daytr
Absolutely right. The tenor of responses from MVT and others reflects that, underneath the insults and bravado they are getting seriously concerned at the prospect of National being returned in 2017. Perhaps its timely to reflect where we are in the political cycle.
I would like to make the following observations and predictions and would be interested in others opinions.
I believe John Keys enthusiasm for the job and determination to win the next election is being tested at a personal level. " Ponygate" is survivable but this has undermined confidence.
The Flag Referendum
There is no public appetite evident to change the flag and he runs a personal risk in being associated to such an extent with what will be a failure, and a rather expensive one at $26 million.
The Surplus
The elusive surplus is proving problematic as they attached so much of their credibility to its attainment. This may not be such a problem for the electorate at large, but the 2014 promise, pushed by John Key against Bill English advice of a second tranche of income tax cuts must be deeply regretted now and have Bill English privately seething.
National MPs Aspirations
On the basis of 3 terms in 3 terms out, younger, ambitious National MPs are contemplating their political careers. this can only serve to heighten tensions internally. This could well boil over in late 2016.
John Keys Post PM Career
He is without a doubt contemplating his post political aspirations, Ponygate will only serve to seek out a pathway. Accordingly I make the following scenario as a distinct possibility. John Key will announce his resignation to depart the leadership in late 2016. He will seek, and be appointed to the position of High Commisioner to London in early 2017 to replace Lockwood Smith