As you know, the majority of our fuel comes of the solar panels but yes the divies will cover the little bit of petrol we use :-)
Printable View
This is an interesting read .......On the Ebb and Flow of Luck
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/fickle-fortune/
at this point of time it looks like timely exit yesterday that 6 dollar mark brought out the sellers. maybe because they didnt grab back a huge chunk of the downgrade profits mentioned in nov and the 15m gained back can just as easliy reverse again
guess the div will attract plenty of punters so maybe it will go higher in the immediate future to reflect this even if it still a long term decline so still keep a few
Event analysis
Oil Price Relief for No-Moat Z Energy with Earnings Guidance Increased. FVE Upgraded to NZD 8.30.
Z Energy has upwardly revised fiscal 2019 earnings guidance by around 5% to NZD 420-450 million in replacement cost, or RC, EBITDA, accounting for a decline in the crude price and reversal of the price lag. In a falling crude market, Z Energy enjoys better retail and commercial trading conditions as fuel becomes cheaper for customers, and reduced their price-sensitivity shifts consumption towards full-service offerings. Prior to crude's retreat, Z Energy had been experiencing the most challenging operating environment in its eight-year history. But Brent fell 40% to December, from a high of USD 86 to USD 51 per barrel, providing some relief. We recently reiterated earnings detractors were short term in nature only. Recovery is now underway, though not soon enough to completely recover fiscal 2019 earnings. Z Energy previously made two earnings guidance cuts from an original RC EBITDA guidance estimate of NZD 450-485 million. Latest guidance is still around 7% below that original midpoint.
Z says crude markets remain volatile with Brent already having risen back above USD 60. Upgraded guidance assumes crude remains within a range of USD 60-70 per barrel for the remainder of the fiscal year to March. DPS guidance is also increased to NZD 0.38-0.47, inclusive of the interim NZD 0.125 paid in December. Z had previously downgraded DPS to an unspecified range, from an original target of NZD 0.50-0.55. Our DPS forecast had overoptimistically remained at the high end of expectations.
Our new fiscal 2019 RC EBITDA and dividend forecasts are set at guidance midrange levels of NZD 435 million and NZD 0.425; changes of plus 14% and minus 5%, respectively. We had been expecting a higher dividend payout ratio of 110% versus 83% now. Our fiscal 2019 EPS forecasts increases 25% to NZD 0.51. Fiscal 2020 is little changed at NZD 0.60. Our fair value estimate increases by 3.8% to NZD 8.30 per share, largely equivalent to time value of money.
Morningstar 23/1/19
From BP's post - Our fair value estimate increases by 3.8% to NZD 8.30 per share,
Love the talk of $8.30 ...even though its been up close to that before
BlackCross not BlackPeter!
another up day today.... yesterday was the first red candle on my chart for a long time - inevitable that there was one sooner or later
Attachment 10278
we may need the overbought factor visible in the indicators to ease off before next targets of 161% extension and further are achievable.