He who yells loudest is correct of course
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Certain posters now posting on another forum have been touting/ramping SUM and OCA for ages. If they are now rubbishing ARV I would take it as a contrarian vote of confidence in ARV because those of us who have ignored their past calls have done well. lol.
I'm happy to leave them to it in their new playpen.
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On another note, Wow 17 facilities now with the gold standard level of care (4 year cert) - an increase of 42% on previous year and now well in front of all other providers (except RYM)... maybe PE multiple is linked to how many facilities as a % of total facilities you can get with the gold standard?? ;) I hope so, as then ARV should be in for a very large re-rating!
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nothing subjective about facts! having so many high quality facilities helps attract residents, also ARV also have vigorous (but yes, perhaps more subjective) surveys of there residents which they have several pages on in their annual report... they don't shy away and brush over occupancy (or even make up measures of occupancy to make it look higher than it is) or tip toe over their care division, they trumpet it, work hard on it, explain it, get the accreditations... and it is must be working, not only for residents (with an amazing 96% occupancy), but shareholders as well... while sum other share prices are slipping down a slope, ARV is near record highs... and on the development front and resales front, margins and volumes are improving ... quite the contrast to sum others!... as we are starting to see with sum villages struggling with occupancy, sales of units, and margins... and I haven't even mentioned gearing
in today's world, where everyone is developing nice unitd and villages, this just isn't enough (in fact, this is the easy part... developing a quality nationwide care system is the hard part).. theres got to be a point of difference... ARV has it, that's why they not as adversely impacted as sum, and in fact quite the opposite: going from strength to strength.
(I feel like I'm repeating alot of things I've said numerous times before but oh well, all just an opinion/forecast... supported an awful lot by fact/trends)
Just nothing on the sell side for ARV... everyone waiting for the rights?
Looks like the cheap shares (40m of them) were issued today, will be interesting to see how much the share price goes, I reckon if it can hold in the mid $1.30's that would be pretty good... sure is amazing how much the return changes if one took part in all the rights issues (and that cheap SPP to acquire the Aria villages way back when) along the way, suddenly sum other retirement operates actually underperform ARV... (sum say ARV may even be 1st ranked in the past 4.5 years since ARV has listed)
On another note, Forsyth downgraded SUM price target by 10% today to $6.60 (still way above current share price I suppose), FY19 earnings downgraded 8%, FY20 downgraded 11% and FY21 downgraded 14%... they clearly have started to see the writing on the wall and realize the market simply wasn't buying their previous $7.35 price target... l as I've said before, while sum companies are increasing build rates, margins, and earnings throughout the cycle, sum others are really struggling... sum say this is because those companies were too focused on short term profits (build more and more and more!) rather than focusing on building culture and continuum of care capabilities.
This is quite astounding, despite 40 million shares coming on market today, virtually nobody is selling (next seller is $1.40) - in fact share price back at all time highs... this acquisition really must be amazing!
Maybe I have it wrong and the shares aren't tradable till next week or something?
Why should they come on the market?
You mean why should people sell? Because they could make a near instant 11.2%? Of course, I suppose most people who brought the 40m shares can see ARV's long term value is higher than $1.39 ARV is currently trading at (a record high by the way), but if they wanted, they could have brought on Monday, sold on Friday and made 11.2%.