think your not taking into account that in that time frame most of the excess power from the closure of smelter would have been soaked up. meridian in there analyst presentation alluded to this
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heres a summary of why keeping the smelter open now makes sense
The economics of closure within 12 months would have been awful in the middle of the worst recession in living memory – a loss which would have included over 2600 highly paid jobs, large amounts of tax and GST income, and more than $1 billion per year of aluminium export receipts
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300119168/why-ardern-thinks-keeping-tiwai-open-pays-off
Perhaps but at least the whole episode has given us a window into what a post-Tiwai world might look like. I would say probably not as ruinous as one's first reaction might have been. So if you put a bond-like (say 7 yrs) duration on these stocks, Tiwai coming or going, they are still appealing (without forgetting other risks like regulatory ...and any kind of disruptive substitution etc)
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300...-open-pays-off Thanks Bull me ol mate. I've converted that into a link that works.
Very good article. I have always thought Transpower wanting $60m a year for transmission lines charges was absurdly high.
Meridian chairman Mark Verbiest said pumped hydro
Public investment in pumped hydro could lead to an uneconomic generation overbuild, crowd out private investment and push up electricity prices –slowing down the electrification of the economy
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=12369507