With China looking wobbly, the Middle East in trouble, and Europe shaky around the edges, the US is looking relatively good.
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With China looking wobbly, the Middle East in trouble, and Europe shaky around the edges, the US is looking relatively good.
Trader Update -10 March 2011 -
Trading Environment:
Note: potential start for down trend on Institutional selling today_ reduce downside market pressure
-SPX 500 range bound_the March 2 Low *1303/the Mar 3 Peak *1332
-SPX 500 in Up-condition_ C-RSI 30 +7.30 strength
-New Lows: 8 - below danger 26-zone - below panic zone 50 (+)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows 'downtick' in high expansion territory
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.64 bullish advantage
-VIX 20.22 (current market stress level: 20) _ D/Vol sideways _8 New Lows
Confirming Weakness:
-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30
-institutions undecided in/out of accumulation/distribution
-U.S. Dollar holding major support
-the Saudi 'Day of Rage' proposed at March 11 -a potential negative spike event ahead-
USD -test _ March 11 Saudi 'Day of Rage' to be resolved this week
Today's Session:
...the SPX 500 broke below the March 2 Low *1303 to intraday Low *1295 with an early bounce off support underway at present.
....uptick power so far has been unimpressive and further downside appears likely with the January 31 High *1287 the next target nearby_potential to extend losses to the January 31 Low *1277 before blopping out
...a successful defense of *1277/*1287 support will provide the foundation for another rally that targets upper channel resistance current *1385 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup; potential to reach out to hit a *1420 measured objective
Kind Regards
Trader Update - 11 March 2011 -
Trading Environment:
- Institutional selling action sideways trading range with an up tick (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-SPX 500 in Up-condition_ C-RSI 30 +1.61 strength
-New Lows: 26 - danger 26-zone - below panic zone 50 (+)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows 'downtick' into mid expansion territory
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.001 bullish advantage
-VIX 21.88 (current market stress level: 20) _ D/Vol sideways _ 26 New Lows
Confirming weakness:
-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _C-RSI 4 below C-RSI9
-institutions in low level distribution
Caution: extreme caution - index close to 'sell' condition
Today's Session:
...the SPX 500 off intraday Low *1292 with today's market internals constructive. However, uptick buying power remains on the subdued side, suggesting upside bounce potential will not let the index stray too far past the March 2 Low *1303 resistance
...a likely failure at *1303 or March 10 congestion *1305 will force the index into another downdraft with the January 31 High *1287 as target_potential to extend losses to the January 31 Low *1277 before blopping out
...a successful defense of *1277/*1287 support will provide the foundation for another rally that targets upper channel resistance current *1384 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup_ potential to reach out to hit a *1420 measured objective
Kind Regards
Trader Update - data point 14 March 2011 -
Trading Environment:
-Institutional selling action sideways trading range with a down tick_inflection point (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-SPX 500 in Up-condition_ C-RSI 30 +13.37 strength
-New Lows: 18 - danger 26-zone - below panic zone 50 (+)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows 'up tick' in mid expansion territory
-Leadership stock ratio: +0.082 bullish advantage
-VIX 20.08 (current market stress level: 20) _ D/Vol sideways _ 18 New Lows
Confirming weakness:
-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _C-RSI 4 below C-RSI9
-institutions in low level distribution
Caution: extreme caution - index close to 'sell' condition
Today's Session:
...as anticipated, the March 2 Low *1303 resistance_March 10 congestion *1305 capped Friday's bounce. Today's violation of January 31 High *1287 intraday leaves the door open for a test of the January 31 Low *1277 before blobbing-out
...a successful defense of *1277/*1287 support will provide the foundation for another rally that targets upper channel resistance current *1384 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup_ potential to reach out to hit a *1420 measured objective
Kind Regards
Trader Update - 15 March 2011 -
Trading Environment:
-Institutional selling action sideways trading range with a up tick_index at inflection point (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-SPX 500 in Up-condition_ C-RSI 30 +1.67 strength
-New Lows: 26 - at danger 26-zone - below panic zone 50 (+)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows 'down tick' in mid expansion territory
-Leadership stock ratio: -0.215 bearish advantage
-VIX 21.13 (current market stress level: 20) _ D/Vol sideways _ 26 New Lows
Confirming weakness:
-C-RSI 9 below C-RSI 30 _C-RSI 4 below C-RSI9
-institutions in low level distribution
-hedge funds selling
Caution: extreme caution - index close to 'sell' condition
Today's Session:
...the SPX crashed past the January 31 Low *1277 inflection point to intraday *1261 and appears to have found some support for now. Up-ticks off *1261 are unconvincing and risks for more downside is high
...below the January 14 Low, chances are, the market will want to test the December 27 Low *1255 before a possible bottom may be in place
...a successful defense of *1255 support will provide the foundation for another rally that targets upper channel resistance current *1376 in the dly. 6-mth. trading setup_ potential to reach out to hit a *1408 measured objective
Kind Regards
Phaedrus, this must be red now?
Trader Update - data point 16 March 2011 -
Trading Environment:
-Institutional selling action - at a March High, 'selling limits' during strong bull phase (chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
-VIX 24.32 (current market stress level: 20) _ D/Vol sideways _ 71 New Lows
Cautiom: bear trap risk
Confirming weakness:
-NYSE (=hft-zone) at negative strength
-SPX 500 'sell' trigger_ C-RSI 30 -1.35 strength
-New Lows: 71 - above danger 26-zone - above panic zone 50 (+)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows 'sharp down tick' in mid expansion territory
-Leadership stock ratio: -0.83 bearish advantage
Today's Session:
unchanged from yesterday. However, a potential lower target to bottom added:
-SPX 500 current *1215
Kind Regards
Not yet, Footsie. Currently the SP500 MSI is dark grey (negative and falling). As you can see from the actual MSI plot, it IS a gnat's eyelash away from triggering a Yellow warning, though.
To my mind this is all as it should be. The current correction is still quite small - you can see that there have been plenty of other retracements the same size or larger over the 2 years of this magnificent uptrend. Trendline still unbroken, etc.
http://i602.photobucket.com/albums/t...usPB/SP317.gif
Trader Update - data point 17 March 2011 -
Trading Environment:
(chart: http://www.spx500dailyindextracker.blogspot.com)
Confirming weakness:
-Institutional selling action _ 'selling limits' expanding
-VIX 29.40_long-term resistance 32.70 _ D/Vol break-out sideways range_ 38 New Lows
-NYSE _ (= hft-zone) _ negative strength
-SPX 500 'sell' trigger_ C-RSI 30 -5.66 strength
-New Lows: 38 _ above danger 26-zone _ above panic zone 50 (+)
-Long Term Trending Fed- and Foreign net-Liquidity Inflows _ 'sharp down tick' _ in low expansion territory _close to contraction
-Leadership stock ratio: -1.99 bearish advantage
Caution: very high market risk level
Today's Session:
...today's bounce pulled the SPX 500 back away from the 'crash site'. The strength inherent in the impulsive move signals the March 16 Low *1249 is a potential floor in place
...the index needs to push the retrace up into a Close above the March 15 High *1288 or better into the *1291 level to confirm
...below the March 15 High *1288 _ current *1291 level, risk remains high for a re-test of the March 16 Low *1249. Any possible, intraday down spike within this double bottom scenario should bring out buyers en masse at the current *1218 level max.
...sustained trading above the March 15 High *1288 _ current *1291signals the expected rally to retrace to current *1380/*1420 is already underway
Kind Regards