If that comment pointed at me mate yes it will happen one day
And yes today / this week / his month is not that time
I'm relaxed ....making hay while the sun shines but prepared to take necessary action if the time comes
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OK ...when then
No not at you Winner, it’s just my general reflection on how sentiment can change quickly.
I do get concerned occasionally though that some of the more perma bear posts I read may genuinely scare new or less experienced investors into unnecessarily cashing up and hiding.
As some commentators say the FED has no exit strategy ...it's gone beyond kicking the can down the road to let's keep digging ...the hole not big enough yet
Hoop .... Chart of the Day have updated their PE chart .... sort of says the current secular bear is still alive eh (secular bear markets are those when PE is trending down)
Mac,,,ditto for the ever optimist predictor..and they seem to get it right more often than the doomdayists these last 4.5 years.....must be the Bull market Cycle effect....eh?...:)
Chances are it maybe a good time to quit that thinking and keep your reputation and wallet intact..eh?...Gotta watch out for those pesky laws of averages when dealing with cycles.
We all know (or should know) that there is a poor (not significant) correlation between the Cyclic Equity Markets and the economy.....
With this thought in mind + the average lifespan of an Equity Bull market cycle being 3.75 to 4.25 years...
you arrive at this present scenario below....
Equity prices have been rising at faster rate than the rate of earnings for the last 4.5 years...and so the Bull market cycle has now outlived its average lifespan...its is at least 6 months in bonus time ( equivalent to a 79yr old human )...In rare cases extremely old age bulls have seen 7 years ( equivalent to a human living to 125years)
It doesn't make me say a prediction that the bull will die now..... but make me discuss the fact that the chances are very good (and increasing)that the bull could die at any stage from now on
It pays for investors to think logically and realise that the NZX50 is a lot closer to the top than the bottom in this present bull cycle...At this stage of the Bull cycle Newbies jumping in armed with Buffett mentality and use the buy and hold investment Strategy seems a very dodgy practice...eh???.....always has been in the past...
..but hey.. this time is different,,right?
Sorry to have to say this MAC...but from past experiences....with each future correction due from now on you can expect those doomsday drums to bang increasingly louder....
....The S&P500 is in a secular downward trend..that indicates the E in PE has to continue to perform much better than the average rate to prevent the P from falling.
Winner I'm trying to tie a chart together for the NZX50...but I'm having trouble finding a PE Ratio chart for the NZX50...have you got one tucked away in your computer box???
Not sure of the secular cycle status for NZX ...Evidence mounting up that you maybe right about the ASX sec bear/bull rev......
I don't follow charts, its all a bit beyond me. Wish I did sometimes. However I do agree with Hoop when he says "It pays for investors to think logically and realise that the NZX50 is a lot closer to the top than the bottom in this present bull cycle.." Timing in the market is obviously impossible or a fluke, but there aren't many bargains out there anymore (besides HNZ haha). I'm beginning to take some of the top of my portfolio to increase my cash holdings, this is my risk prevention exercise as things can change very quickly. The higher anything gets the quicker it falls when fear begins to take control and cause irrational behavior. However it will provide good buying opportunities for the few that control their own human instincts and emotions. Good luck to all!