Airlines r a great public service, endorsed by Skol.

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Originally Posted by tricha

I wonder what the T\A experts would say about this one?

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You don't tell us what stock this is Tricha, which makes things a little difficult, but my guess is that it is VBA. Am I right?

All this year, VBA was in a steep (and accelerating) downtrend. There was a confirmed trendline in place, and all price action was below a 30 day Moving average. On 9/7/08, VBA gapped up (this is Bullish) breaking the confirmed trendline and giving a Buy signal. It is considered a little risky to act on the basis of a single signal in isolation, but this "Buy" signal was confirmed the very same day when VBA broke above the 30 day moving average that had held good all this year. These signals gave an entry into VBA at 55 cents.

VBA went into a strong, steep uptrend until it gapped down (this is Bearish) on 19/8/08 breaking below both the established trendline and the 30 day moving average. This well confirmed "Sell" signal gave an exit at 84 cents.

http://h1.ripway.com/Phaedrus/VBA824.gif

Of course not all trades are so spectacularly successful, but this is a nice illustration of how the application of even the most basic TA can assist in the timing of buying and selling stocks.

Not sure about this, and this may be factored in already to the large fall in VBA over the past few days, over 600 million of VBA shares are about to hit the market starting tomorrow from the TOL distribution.

With oil falling $6 on the weekend, I suspect VBA will bounce a little on Monday.

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Originally Posted by soulman

Not sure about this, and this may be factored in already to the large fall in VBA over the past few days, over 600 million of VBA shares are about to hit the market starting tomorrow from the TOL distribution.

With oil falling $6 on the weekend, I suspect VBA will bounce a little on Monday.

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WELL Skol, looks like u failed to do your homework, I know the feeling, I did that with Perilya :(, Soulmans on to it though.

More blues in store for Virgin Blue
http://images.theage.com.au/2008/08/...RGIN-470x0.jpg Virgin Blue's share price faces reverse thrust. Photo: Jim Rice

• Matt O'Sullivan
• August 25, 2008

VIRGIN BLUE faces downward pressure on its share price for weeks as institutional investors who gained a slice of the airline courtesy of Toll Holdings wait for the chance to sell.
The airline's stock tumbled almost 19% to close near an all- time low on Friday, the first day in which Toll Holdings' shareholders could trade the Virgin stock they received after the transport company last month decided to offload most of its 62.7% stake in the carrier.
"Our preference would be not to hold them, but I'm not sure we are going to sell them at 49¢," Argo Investment managing director Rob Patterson said of Virgin shares his company gained via its stake in Toll. "We just have to wait and see."
Macquarie Equities has warned that many Toll shareholders are unlikely to be long-term holders in airlines, suggesting some will dump their Virgin shares.
Mr Patterson agreed that institutional shareholders were unlikely to be "enthusiastic" about holding Virgin shares because the airline sector was highly volatile.
He said there just "so many variables", such as volatile oil prices and slowing passenger growth.
"I just don't think it's what you would call a core holding in an institutional portfolio," he said.
But he doubted fund managers would be selling Virgin — in which billionaire Richard Branson has a 25.5% stake — while it was trading at near all-time lows.
Virgin last week announced a 55% fall in full-year profit to $98 million, due mainly to fuel prices more than doubling over the past year.
Merrill Lynch has forecast Virgin to post a $57 million bottom-line loss this financial year, due in part to the airline spending as much as $65 million on its long-haul carrier, V Australia. Goldman Sachs JBWere has estimated a loss of almost $39 million.
Meanwhile, Deustche Bank analyst Cameron McDonald said he believed it would take at least two weeks for Virgin's share register to stabilise.
Virgin shares lost 58% last week, closing down 11¢ at 48¢ on Friday.
http://www.virginblue.com.au

VBA new shares or old TOLL shares are now on the market some 650 approx million of them
which makes VBA a free standing company with all its washing hagging out with NO new surprises,, As stated above there is going to be a lot of adjustments for the next two weeks
so when it calms down VBA will be in a better state but you mite miss a bargain @ these
prices so dive in..

As to the comments about AIR buying VBA cant see it happening as where would the money come from cant say the GOV because they have just been stretched buying the KIWI RAILWAYS so if you can answer that question it would solve the PUZZEL..

VBA is not cheap. Its business is fundamentally down. With 1b CapEx spent this year and average capital costs of 540m its return on invested capital was -9.18%. Its owner earnings this year came in at -200m. By all means Bricks "dive in" but there are no gold medals here.

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Originally Posted by h2so4

VBA is not cheap. Its business is fundamentally down. With 1b CapEx spent this year and average capital costs of 540m its return on invested capital was -9.18%. Its owner earnings this year came in at -200m. By all means Bricks "dive in" but there are no gold medals here.

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Rather a dull statement as VBA is in a massive change in life and new capital construction
and we don't really know who owns what or the top twenty shareholders as stated it will take a couple of weeks for this to settle, but looking at the turnover which is very large
some one is buying up big to get a toe in who it is so that's the big question..

VBA is not BROKE and is bigger than AIR but its not a mature airline only been around a few
years but growing but at these current prices it is a good time to "dive in" but you have to have money not excuses like h2so4 not to got NO MONEY,, have a go sometimes it pays OFF..

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Originally Posted by BRICKS

As to the comments about AIR buying VBA cant see it happening as where would the money come from cant say the GOV because they have just been stretched buying the KIWI RAILWAYS so if you can answer that question it would solve the PUZZEL..

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I too cant see AIR buying anything in Aussie after the Ansett disaster. What a mess that was, with special thanks to the previous AIR chairman.

AIR and SIA would have been a perfect marriage.

At the time of Ansett's collapse, weren't there rumours floating around that AirNZ had approached VBA but got rebuffed?

Air New Zealand profit falls by a quarter

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Air New Zealand has no further plans to cut capacity on long haul flights despite crippling fuel prices which imposed an extra $300 million cosdt over the past year.
The airline posted a 24 per cent drop in profit for the year to June 30, with normalised earnings dropping to $197 million.
This was despite a 9.1 per cent boost in operating revenue, up $388m to $4.667 billion for the year.
Air New Zealand has already replaced Boeing 747s with smaller Boeing 777s on some services to London.
Air New Zealand chief executive Rob Fyfe said the network was still under review but no further capacity cuts were planned "at this stage."
By the end of the year one, possibly two fuel hungry 747s could be parked up on the tarmac.
Fyfe warned of a tough year ahead.

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http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10529053

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Originally Posted by AMR

At the time of Ansett's collapse, weren't there rumours floating around that AirNZ had approached VBA but got rebuffed?

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AT the time of the A/ collapse VBA was not even BORN..