https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/256588.pdf
Interesting presentation, but also brief and to the point.
"expected total income for FY2017 [in the upper end of the range], up from $65.8m in FY2016" so lets say $70.5m.
Total Income analysis
1st half 15 was $24.2m ($24.2m of operating revenue, no Licensing Income and not sure on grants)
1st half 16 was $30.9m ($29.5m of operating revenue +21.9% on 1st half 15, 1m Licensing Income, $0.4m Research and development grant)
1st half 17 was [a weak] $30.8m ($29.8m of operating revenue + 0.7% $0.7m Licensing Income, $0.3m Research and development grant)
Therefore:
2nd half 15 was $33.3m ($32m of operating revenue, $0.3m Licensing Income, $1m Research and development grant)
2nd half 16 was $35.4m ($34.5m of operating revenue + 7.8% on 2nd half 15, $0.8m Licencing Income $0.1m Research and development grant)
2nd half 17 expected $39.7m (expect 96% of total income to be operating revenue: ie $38.1m + 10.4% on 2nd half 16)
It would appear growth is skewed towards the 2nd half, especially this year (with 2nd half operating revenue likely to be 23.7% higher than a bad first half)
I estimate 1st half 18 operating revenue will be only a bit less than the same as 2nd half 17, say 1st half revenue of 36m
2nd half 18, conservatively speaking, I estimate to be 25% higher than the first, meaning $45m
(1st to 2nd in 2015: 32.2%, 1st to 2nd in 2016: 16.9%, 1st to 2nd in 2017:27.9% [?] - average over 3 year period: 25.7%)
This reflecting increasing [expected] sales growth as development of products begins to 'flow through to sales'.
Total Operating Revenues:
48.9m 2014
56.2m 2015 (+13.0%)
64.0m 2016 (+13.9%
67.9m 2017 (+6.1%)
81m 2018 (+19.3%)
Maybe in 2019 growth will accelerate back to the good old days, when the 10 year CAGR (to 2015) was 21% (if not done in 2018!)... Total Income would be surely be over $100m including licensing income and grants, and turn a profit this [2019] year? (like the good old profitable days)
Will have to keep an eye on that cash burn... don't want another WYN (or OHE)
Edison have a revenue estimate of 99.1m operating revenue and a profit of 0.3m for 2018 so maybe I am a bit to cautious with my 81m estimate... then again they also have a price target that is more than double the current market price ($4.76)... winner69 you'd think the market would meet in the middle maybe somewhere between current market price ($2.30) and Edison's target ($4.76)... if that was the case, we'd be above $3.50... got to see the jump in growth first I suppose.