is that the hand of the RBNZ putting money into the Nomura piggybank?
Printable View
is that the hand of the RBNZ putting money into the Nomura piggybank?
another hit this morning from the RBNZ?
"I'm convinced they've intervened," said Alex Sinton, senior currency dealer at ANZ National from Auckland. "It's now gotten very dangerous for the bank because at this point the impact of this intervention has been less than the last one."
Certainly looks like it afetr that 30 minute red whopper,
but its not gonna work judging by the aftermove.
(That was also a nice 30 min butterfly trade).
http://www.sevenoaksart.co.uk/images/swbut.gif
arco
Theres no stopping this Butterfly......
.....onwards and upwards 7800+++ in sight now.
.........RBNZ just dont have enough money
to have any serious effect IMO.
arco
Touched 78.79, pretty close arco, well done.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
Strong move overnight....
.........onwards and upward towards 7890 perhaps
Good Weekend All - arco
http://www.patricknouvion.com/Old_Bl...ies/coffee.gif
Think it may have another few goes at it as well
Cheers
Slam
Hi Slam
Yes thats the first BF target.
Maybe I should start seliing signals :D
regards - arco
I'd buy that for a doller;)(Even a little more)Quote:
quote:Originally posted by arco
....Maybe I should start seliing signals :D
Cheers
Slam
Best tip I can give for a dollar.
http://homepages.cwi.nl/~dik/english...ls/l/lvl-2.gif
Always use a stop ;)
Outlook from Gocurrency
http://www.gocurrency.com/outlook-nzd-usd.htm
Interesting comments from Gocurrency. Now that some more water has gone under the bridge it would be interesting to see what their thoughts are now.
The 40 week rythym doesn't seem to be the current play though. I find time cycles are also hardest to identify. Just when one finds a clear cycle, everyone else seems to pick it too and hence naturally destroy it.
I get the feeling that 0.7880 is about to get blown away. But maybe that is me just projecting my wish as I'm currently long the kiwi!
More pain ahead..............
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...&refer=economy
Hi FTG/ARCO
Your long looking pretty good at the moment FTG
Any thoughts on long term batterfly Arco with D at.8050
http://img96.imageshack.us/img96/6968/nzd1tp6.jpg
Hmmm.
I reckon the .8050 might just be a "mid afternoon break" for the kiwi. I'm placing us in a smaller wave 3 at the moment - target 0.8330! -approx Late August/ early September
Scary if I'm right with that one. If so, I would guess it will be more of a story of the USD falling off the shelf than anything.
Hi Roddy
Onwards and upwards it appears
Theres a possible margfly if you take the
start from March 05.
aroc
They keep saying due to inflation, insterest rate goes up~ and Fuel price been one of the key factor which "fuel" the inflation rate.
Now the interest rate hike drives up the NZD value~~~ but we import petrol, don't we~~ another words if NZD is not as high as it is now~~~ how much more expensive will our fuel be, and how much higher the inflation rate will become~~~
and Cullum still considering intervening the intereat rate???[xx(]
Viking, just remember that DR Cullen is a DR of history or something like that, not economics or commerce etc...Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Viking
They keep saying due to inflation, insterest rate goes up~ and Fuel price been one of the key factor which "fuel" the inflation rate.
Now the interest rate hike drives up the NZD value~~~ but we import petrol, don't we~~ another words if NZD is not as high as it is now~~~ how much more expensive will our fuel be, and how much higher the inflation rate will become~~~
and Cullum still considering intervening the intereat rate??? [xx(]
History includes economics tho. My NZ history studies at AKL University were centred on economics
Marx was a historian ;)
Have now tightened up my stops on the long position. Chart is starting to look like a triangle, possibly an ending triangle. If so a thrust in the next few days to your .8050 would make sense Roddy. Followed by a sharp downwards move.
i do think the kiwi is going higher, in some ways cullen's latest rhetoric will in itself add fuel to the fire.it seems theres nearly a degree of panic in his attempts to jaw bone things down and also rbnz's intervention attempt being followed by what looks like a an almost certain hike seems surreal.is it possible bollard may just whack the market with a 50 bps rise this week let it capitulate and then stabilise rather than this slow torture. tough medicine but really he is paying the price for not raising when he should knowing fine well the structural problems in the new zealand economy mean a very average growth rate still equates to an economy running at maximum capacity.
Hi FTG
hay there could be a few pip on offer but I dont see it as a major turning point!
imho: i was wrong at .7550 thinking it wouldn't go any higher,nothing new is coming out of RBNZ so if they raise rates again could easily expect to see the upper levels of Arcos butterfly being reached on page 35.
in your favour FTG its looking like an ascending triangle on the daily .7935 level which could now act as support possibly
anyone got any thoughts on the weekly butterfly that has formed X mar 2005, A mid 2006, B @ C early 2007 its got a pretty tight 127 xa ab=cd ,314 bc all around 79 ish. i have been looking at failed patterns as a bullish confirmation to poss mid 80s . sorry about the charts hopefully peat will help me later
there is also a deep bearish crab inside the butterfly with an x point oct 2005 and same A B C POINTS with a d projection around 79 ish , however after all that i still cant get too excited about a imminent reversal, i think picking a top on the kiwi is seat of your pants stuff and still prefer a buy on dips
:D Indeed~ well but I thought he would at least have some sense on these things~Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Steve
Viking, just remember that DR Cullen is a DR of history or something like that, not economics or commerce etc...Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Viking
They keep saying due to inflation, insterest rate goes up~ and Fuel price been one of the key factor which "fuel" the inflation rate.
Now the interest rate hike drives up the NZD value~~~ but we import petrol, don't we~~ another words if NZD is not as high as it is now~~~ how much more expensive will our fuel be, and how much higher the inflation rate will become~~~
and Cullum still considering intervening the intereat rate??? [xx(]
~ A lesson man learn from history, is that man never learn from history~ :D Maybe a good quote for Dr C~ [:p]
one small step for man one giant leap for me
So it could be a bit early to short the NZD then?
it doesnt look like there has been much hesitation through the fib pattern and just simple trend lines are all intact so i would say not
Hi Guys
I posted this before in June but just to compare where we are at again, this moster Brown hatched in 2004-2006 shows the possibility that the mid 8000's could print
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/nzd.usd_w.gif
arco
First time I have watched this pair tonight,does it usually move this slow or does it speed up at certain times?.
Cheers
miner
anz commentary
Outlook
Currency: Target remains 0.8154 for the NZD but risks of a correction lower have increased substantially with
the brief move above 0.81 yesterday. USD index continues to remain above 80 awaiting housing data tonight.
Bonds: Expect local yields to open unchanged.
Today: No local data today. Australian Q2 CPI due at 1330 NZST.
Review
Currency: Another stellar performance from the NZD yesterday as it eliminated stop loss buying orders with
ease. Further yield demand was evident although this began to wane slightly after the move above 0.81.
Fixed Income: US Treasuries posted modest gains as concerns over housing and riskier credit markets lend
support to bonds. A US$6b auction of 20-yr TIPS met with decent demand.
Equities: US stocks fell over 1 percent as housing concerns dragged financial and homebuilders stocks lower,
and a fall in oil prices weighed on energy stocks.
Commodities: Oil prices fell for a third day on speculation that US refineries are increasing their fuel production
and an official from Iran’s Oil Ministry said OPEC would raise output if required. Gold prices rose on the back of
USD weakness.
Text Box: 25 July 2007
MAJOR MARKET MOVERS
(0715 NZ TIME)
BNZ COMMENT
The NZD/USD broke above 0.8100 yesterday and went
on to record an intra-session high of 0.8110– its highest
level since January 1982.
Over the past day or so, the NZD/USD has been
propelled to the fresh post-float highs by a combination of
broad based USD weakness and heightened speculation
about the RBNZ raising the OCR to 8.25% on Thursday.
The positive NZD sentiment was also helped by the
announcement of EIB’s NZ$400m 5-year Eurokiwi issue.
Indeed, retail accounts out of Asia continue to have an
appetite for NZD.
In addition, the NZD/USD has also been propped up by
very solid demand for NZD/AUD. It appears that a variety
of short-term leverage accounts have been squaring up
short NZD/AUD positions ahead of Thursday’s OCR
Review. The NZD/AUD climbed over 0.9100 yesterday,
but has failed to break above 0.9160 (large stops are
rumoured above this level).
Despite the strong rally seen in the NZD/USD yesterday,
the upward momentum appears to be stalling. NZD/USD
failed to break through 0.8100 last night. Indeed, model
funds and custodial accounts have been noted NZD/USD
sellers. Furthermore, the lacklustre performance of US
equities (S&P500 currently down 1.98%) has also
weighed on carry trade sentiment, and selling of
NZD/JPY has added to the downward pressure on
NZD/USD.
Today the Australian CPI release (due 13:30 NZ time) will
be the main focus. A strong underlying CPI out-turn
(0.8%q/q or greater) will likely heighten speculation about
the RBA raising rates on August 8. Since the RBNZ is
widely expected to hike this week, increased
hawkishness towards the RBA could well prompt another
round of NZD/AUD selling (particularly since the cross
has repeated failed to break above 0.9160).
possibility of a look at a short , major event risk tommorow with rate increase more or less full priced in, big downside risk to no hike and also possibilty of rbnz dumping kiwis onto market could be interesting
Finally stopped out on Long position. Nice little run that was!
Next 24 hrs are going to be quite interesting starting off with RBA decision in next minute or so.
Currency markets seemed to have factored in a rise, money markets aren't so sure.
The quiet political pressure on Bollard is great now. My punt is he won't rise - (this time!)
i agree, i reckon its a real close call,the rbnz are in a interesting position where they know what there going to do ie raise or not raise and so could intervene in a reduced liquidity enviroment as i feel some money must have been taken out of kiwi. so how you going to trade it??
Albeit I take note of the fundamentals and form opinions, I'm more enclined to take a wait & see approach and see what the market says and then make a move accordingly.
Short NZD @ 8053; stop 8130
Let's see how it plays...
Good luck,
I have just made a similar order - my stop is a little tighter however; 8095. Goes through there and I reckon a new high will follow shortly.
My guess is that any rate hike is already factored into the price and my stop allows a for a new high to be unsuccessfully tested prior to the announcement. If there is a new high, I will no doubt be taken out.Quote:
quote:Originally posted by FTG
Good luck,
I have just made a similar order - my stop is a little tighter however; 8095. Goes through there and I reckon a new high will follow shortly.
I trade through CMC, who do you use?
hike 25 bps
Went the other way long, think that the OCR rise is just another big green light for the traders. Spiked and dropped hard looks like its bouncing back strong tho.
short closed, bounced of weekly trend line 7980 , bollard indicated tightening cycle finished which has taken wind out of sails of bulls , pretty nervy trading though, will allow to settle.
have total laptop fever, must get off this planet quickly, see you next week
I agree kind of wish I didn't enter now, I have things to do today!
By NZPA
Thursday 26th July 2007
Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said: "The New Zealand economy is running strong. We are recording continued big increases in international commodity prices, especially dairy, reflecting solid world demand for our products.
"This is very good news for New Zealand. Given this positive situation, some of the negative commentary circulating about the economy is unwarranted.
"However, the continued tight labour market, high capacity use, and rising oil and food prices all point to sustained inflationary pressures. That is why we are increasing the OCR today.
"The New Zealand dollar has reached very high levels recently, driven by US dollar weakness and New Zealanders' heavy demand for borrowing. This level of the currency has been hurting exports.
"The high New Zealand dollar is not sustainable medium term and investors should understand this. The higher OCR now gives strong incentives to New Zealanders to save.
"New Zealanders have been showing early signs of moderating their borrowing.
Provided they keep this up, and the pressure on resources continues to ease, we think the four successive OCR increases we have delivered will be sufficient to contain inflation."
NBR Comment
OCR lift betrays low opinion of NZ potential
by Neville Bennett
The Reserve Bank’s justification for raising the OCR to 8.25 per cent is much briefer than usual .
It says hardly anything about household demand (Kiwi’s are showing “early signs of moderating their borrowing”) and absolutely nothing explicitly about housing.
This is strange as on June 7 it emphasised demand, “particularly in the household sector” and “buoyant housing” market activity.
On 26 April, the Bank said demand was fuelled by a“buoyant “ (they like the word) housing market, increases in government expenditure, rising terms of trade, ongoing net immigration, and a robust labour market.
Most of the previous reasons for raising interest rates are not emphasised in today’s statement:
Housing is overlooked.
Government expenditure is overlooked (perhaps a case of ‘be nice to Cullen or he might over-rule me’ ?).
And migration and terms of trade are overlooked.
These omission are unexpected.
Although the housing market is steady, fiscal policy is inflationary, the Bank has suggested that migration be constrained, and the current account deficit is enormous.
So what is the Bank’s rationale?
The stress is on the good news of rising commodity export prices, especially dairy. Nevertheless, there are inflationary pressures indicated by the tight labour market, high capacity use, rising oil and food prices.
Are these valid points?
It is clear that demand is strong but in the tradable sector, inflation is in the middle of the 1 per cent to 3 per cent range.
As interest rates have been raised three times this year before today, there was a case for adopting a wait-and- see posture.
Australia is under similar pressures, but their Bank is proud of its 17-year boom, and is cheered that “property markets are firming” and borrowing is robust.
Australia’s growth rate is double New Zealand’s, but its OCR-equivalent is much lower (6.25 per cent).
The Reserve Bank NZ seems to have a low view of the economy’s potential output. It is putting the brakes on when growth is about 1.7 per cent.
The evidence is that,other things being equal, that New Zealand can have sustainable growth at over 3 per cebt per annum.
This rise in interest rates will hurt most businesses by increasing the cost of working capital and investment.
Many will be hurt further by the effects of the high dollar which will either reduce their export market or reduce the price of competing imports.
The manufacturers are hurting. They employ some 235,000 people and contribute to about 15 per cent of exports. They are bleeding jobs overseas.
The sectors suffering from the high Kiwi dollar get scant comfort from the Bank. It says the high dollar is caused by US dollar weakness and New Zealanders “heavy demand for borrowing”.
So it is back to householders after all.
Not the foreign-owned banks, not the RBNZ offering the highest interest rates in the world for the delectation of Japanese housewives.
It is worth emphasising again that the Reserve Bank takes a narrow view of New Zealand’s interests.
The consequences of its actions are damaging.
An unsustainable exchange rate hollows out manufactures, discourages many exporters, and creates huge balance of payment issue.
High short-term rates create an inverted yield curve which tilts the economy to recession. Creating a recession is absurd when the world economy is growing a record pace.
High interest rates also hurt business; curb investment and growth, and the building of wealth.
http://www.nbr.co.nz/home/column_art...me=NBR+Comment
Stop lowered to 8020, watching it decline...Quote:
quote:Originally posted by Steve
Short NZD @ 8053; stop 8130
Let's see how it plays...
WOW !!!
Hi Steve
short at .7992 so not in as early as you however things moving nicely at the moment!
things that make you go DOAH , possible 300 pippa and i got 60
d................o..............a............h.... ............
by the way well done steve et al other shorters
For those interested in a little Elliott Wave.
Last 3 days action. Kiwi peaked at .8109. First move down to .7995 = 114 pips. Then corrected back up to 0.8081. Take the 114 pips and multiply by a Fibonacci 2.618 (= 298 pips)
Finally take these 298 pips and project down off the 0.8081 correction point. This projects a target of 0.7283.
Guess where we bottomed and turned back this morning! You got it, 0.7283.
Art in motion - question is, was this a A-B-C move or the first 3 waves of an impulse. Time will tell.
Didn't take long to get an answer!
Wave 4 was a shallow retracement, not even reaching 23.6% - hence demonstrating weakness.
Wave 3 low has already been taken out. Wave 5 should bottom in the 0.7717-0.7761 range
so the universe is connected , i reckon fph is a great currency play when confirms
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x...Jul2718.30.gif
bo
I've got the FPH low as 18/4 @ 2.75, so that would alter the bot parameters
????
rgds - arco
Forex Focus: The Kiwi May Be Leading Carry Trade Reversal
By Nicholas Hastings
Just as the canary was an indicator of poisonous gas in coal mines, the kiwi could prove to be an indicator of a fall in global liquidity.
Look at the way the New Zealand dollar fell off its perch despite the hike in New Zealand interest rates by 25 basis points earlier this week.
With New Zealand rates now up at 8.25%, this hike made the highest-yielding of the 10 major traded currencies even more attractive. However, investors still shied away, as concerns over a credit crunch rose and global appetite for risk faded away.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand could be at least partially to blame for the losses.
It tried to play down the rate rise, suggesting that after four successive hikes, rates are probably high enough to keep a lid on inflation.
RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard said: "New Zealanders have been showing early signs of moderating their borrowing."
Bollard also helped to discourage any bullish reaction by the kiwi by warning once again that the currency is hurting the export sector and that its current strength isn't sustainable. Earlier this summer, the central bank intervened in an attempt to halt the currency's advance and the threat of a repeat exercise remains.
These comments help to explain the kiwi's reversal, with the market now looking to economic evidence over the next few weeks that the rates don't need to be hiked any further.
"The performance of the New Zealand dollar remains data dependent," said Sharada Selvanathan, a current strategist with BNP Paribas in Singapore.
However, the New Zealand dollar's somewhat unexpected decline also comes at a time when global investment flows may be starting to shift.
A steady rise in concern over U.S. subprime mortgages over the last week appears to be spreading into other markets, with each day bringing reports of financing difficulties being faced by corporations as the global appetite for risk dries up.
Apart from poor earnings forecasts from financial institutions and companies directly affiliated with the housing market, other companies are finding that they are having to pay considerably more in the corporate debt market as lenders shy away.
This week, the purchasers of a GM transmission subsidiary, the private equity buyers of Chrysler and Alliance Boots have all faced difficulties putting together debt packages.
This decline in liquidity is also being reflected in global equity markets, where prices are tending to sink unless they get support from improved earnings reports.
Risk aversion also continues to rise with the latest reading of the UBS Risk Index showing another steady increase, suggesting that interest in carry trades, whereby purchases in high-yielding currency assets are funded by selling low yielders, is on the wane.
For high-yielders, such as the New Zealand dollar, this could spell the end of recent support that has pushed them steadily higher at the expense of low-yielding currencies such as the yen.
"The RBNZ's rate decision provided the clearest hint yet from any of the major monetary tighteners that rates may have peaked, albeit the hint was heavily qualified," said David Simmonds, head of foreign exchange strategy at The Royal Bank of Scotland in London.
The key thing now is whether the kiwi will continue to decline, reflecting the decline in global liquidity as investors pull back into lower risk assets, or whether it will once again track rate hike expectations on the basis on New Zealand economic data alone.
Steve Barrow, chief currency strategist with Bear Stearns International, reckons that although the rate cycle may not yet have changed, "the kiwi will continue to peel back" in the short term.
Over at RBC Capital Markets, senior currency strategist Adam Cole argues that little has changed.
"This is not the New Zealand dollar-negative story that the knee-jerk reaction suggests," he said.
"For the extreme high and low yielding currencies in particular, recent price action has overwhel
I have some active Gann support circa 7720
(perhaps for a wee bounce)
If /or when this breaks theres another powerful
support awaiting down below circa 7464 (active)
arco
when im messing around looking for patterns sometimes i will play around with the x point to see if the harmonics are improved and i felt this was valid as there was a significant rally from that x point. i know its not for the purists.
bo
Scott is quite specific with the Bat - the parameters MUST stack up otherwise is ain't a Bat.
The pattern incorporates the 0.886XA retracement, as the defining element in the Potential Reversal Zone (PRZ). The B point retracement must be less than a 0.618, preferably a 0.50 or 0.382 of the XA leg. The Bat utilizes a minimum 1.618BC projection. In addition, the AB=CD pattern within the Bat is extended and usually requires a 1.27AB=CD calculation.
rgds - arco
Hi Arco,
That 7720 fits in nicely with the 7717 I mentioned earlier. After a very good run today on the short side I have now reversed and gone long; entry 7740 - hopefully for a decent bounce. Running a 40 pip stop, so hopefully I haven't picked the turn prematurely.
What a beautiful day it has been!
I got knocked out of that rather quickly. Teaches me right for getting to cute and not keeping to the basics!
Oh well, still a very successful 24hrs overall.
FTG
When the trend is still dubious, my tactic with Gann level bounce trades is to take a small number of pips on 75% of the position based on a 50-618 fib calc of the retrace, and then let a small balance ride. In this case 7801 (50%) for 40 pips.
Its easy to get back in if you get a wave 1 retrace.
rgds - arco
Arco,
Yep good strategy!
Another mistake I made was going out for the night and not setting an alert for when a upside target had been hit. Then I would have raised my stop and locked in a no lose situation.
As I said - basic stuff. Entirely my fault for not being disciplined and keeping to my own trade management rules.
hi all
update on chart looks very much like this pattern is in play initial 38 target 72.80 and then 61 target 67.60. possible bounce off march trend line at 76.40,or march 2005 high and april 2007 high at 74.80
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x...Jul2818.06.gif
hi , having been having a look ichimoku indicator, a new one for me and very interesting. i would appreciate any comments on my interpretation.
on weekly the tenkan (magenta) & kijun (red) lines have provided very reliable support, looks as though tenkan under pressure which may bring kijun into play.
on daily chikou (brown) may come into play with a bounce of closing price
http://i183.photobucket.com/albums/x...Jul2913.08.gif
CURRENCY
Review
> NZD: Trouble continued to stay with the NZD as it bounced only
briefly at 0.7733 before crashing through it in the European session
on Friday evening. USD fortunes were assisted by the better than
forecast Q2 GDP advanced release, although gains against the JPY
were limited in the lead up to their weekend upper house elections.
Outlook
> NZD: Support at 0.7575 next in the firing line
Having obliterated many of the recent support levels, the NZD is
likely to further investigate these during the week. IMM positioning
to the week ending 24th July continues to show increasing long
positions of NZD but does not take into account the severe rout
experienced from the post float high of 0.8110 created last week.
NZD
Early in last week the NZD/USD recorded a fresh 25-year
high of 0.8110 (July 24), but then proceeded to fall. By
the time the week ended, the NZD/USD was about 4½
cents lower around 0.7650.
The NZD/USD was again pressured by fresh selling of
carry trade currencies on Friday. The stronger than
expected Q2 US data (printed at 3.4% vs. 3.2% forecast)
did little to soothe investors’ worries about the
deteriorating global credit markets. Indeed, the sharp
losses in US equity markets (S&P500 finished down
1.6%) triggered another bout of carry trade unwinding.
Hedge funds and model-driven accounts were heavy
sellers of NZD, and the NZD/JPY was knocked the cross
from around 93.00 to below 91.00.
It is worth noting, that the recent NZD selling has not
been limited to short-term speculative players. Over the
past few days, we have seen a mixture of real-money and
custodial accounts selling NZD. In addition, while
Japanese accounts have shown some appetite for NZD
on dips, so far this has failed to provide much of a floor
for the currency.
For the coming week, we suspect the NZD/USD will
continue to trade with a heavier bias. The global
backdrop of soft global equities, falling risk appetite and
general uncertainty around credit markets will keep carry
trade currencies vulnerable to further weakness.
The local data may also help keep the downward
pressure on the NZD/USD by reinforcing last week’s
message that we could be near the peak in the RBNZ’s
tightening cycle. Building consents and household credit
claims (both out Monday) are likely to provide the first
real signs of softening in NZ’s housing market following
the anecdotal hints of such. On Tuesday, we also have
the National Bank Business Outlook Survey where the
sharp drop seen in June is likely to be consolidated in
July.
a question for you arco (the million dollar question),is this the big unwind or a healthy correction for a move to mid 80s, i would value your opinion,which may not be technically based.
i just have an uncanny feeling when the dust settles there may be some big flows back into the carry traders.
yes there may be some data coming out which will suggest some reduction in economic activity but in some respects the fundamentals are still the same. it reminds me of what i think was a currency concepts publication called the 'story of the dollar' in which one of the conclusions they reached, was that a cycle ended not on interest rate rises but interest rate cuts and way too much time and energy was spent on second guessing interest rate movements.
its all about rate differentials so on this cross its just widened ,read what you want into that.
bo
Chartwise I would say from a harmonic perspective towards 8400 in not out of the question. I posted this chart on here a while back...............
http://www.khalsaspad.com/files/nzd.usd_w.gif
Fundamentally I see no reason for the carry trade to vanish because the Japanese have got the bug now and are increasingly investing overseas, (which also weakens their currency).
rgds - arco
While I got the first drop after shorting last week, I actually closed my position at 78.45 after geeting out of bed on Friday morning thinking that I had done not to bad for a days work. While expecting some volatility, I wasn't expecting another 2c drop on Friday.
[Note for next time]Perhaps I should have just lowered my stop to lock in some profits and stayed in the game.[B)]
This is getting interesting!
Looks like we may be in for a turbulent night in all markets tonight. People are slowly waking up to the fact that sub prime issues in America WILL effect everyone on the planet. Classic example is the MBL announcements today. IMO another round of carry trade unwinding has started today. I'm back short again at 0.76, but with a relatively tight stop.
Are we going to see a 27% drop as predicted by Winston Peters?[?]
http://img187.imageshack.us/img187/8...3082007sd9.png
short term breakout?
Hey Peat, do your references '49' & '50'have any significance?
no Steve - no special significance they are just labels for the two lines.
Using my breakout signal would have needed about a 30 pip stop to generate useful profits. technically it failed as a breakout because it came back into the convergence area and even went above the top line before falling 50 pips.
hey guys , it seems in forum change over my user name has changed to ,wait for it ........... DUMBASS oh yeah after speaking to my wife she says i should keep it . so without further a do my first post under dumbass following soon , regards trader formally known as bogus 1
it does seem after fri session it seems like this move is for real , looking to find good short entry
received this from omf
Why look to short NZD/USD
Chart 1 is of the Dow Jones and the NZD/USD over the past month, the correlation is quite clear. In our view if we did not have the subprime woes and the jittery equity markets the NZD/USD would be 80 cents plus. But with the current level of uncertainty in the markets we feel that the Kiwi carry trade could really begin to come under pressure. In August, we have NZ$3.4 billion of Uridashi Maturities. If the current market volatility continues we may see some unwinding rather than reinvestment in the carry trade. In September, we have another NZ$1 billion maturing so the domino effect of an August unwind could add to the downward pressure on the kiwi. Adding to this, the option covers the below data, including the next RBNZ statement, which may confirm that the RBNZ has finished its tightening cycle. Considering the above, we foresee an opportunity to gain from a sharp fall in the kiwi dollar. Given the high level of volatility in the global marketplace, we believe that spot positions should be kept relatively small and actively traded, whilst using options to really leverage potential profits.
Potential market moving economic releases covered by the option.
09/8/07 NZ Unemployment 2nd qtr.
24/8/07 NZ Merchandise Trade July.
13/9/07 NZ Retail Sales July.
13/9/07 NZ RBNZ Monetary policy Statement.
14/9/07 NZ Manufacturing Survey 2nd qtr.
18/9/07 US FOMC Rate Decision.
19/9/07 US CPI August.
20/9/07 NZ Balance of Payments 2nd qtr.
Considering the above we feel the most prudent way to potentially profit in the current environment is via an option. In this case we are not throwing the kitchen sink at it but rather taking out an insurance policy should we wake up one morning to an equity market meltdown.
Option Details
NZD/USD Spot reference 0.7650
NZD/USD One touch
Touch Level 0.7000
Expiry 7 weeks (21st September, 3pm Tokyo)
Payout NZ$ 50,000
Cost 12% (NZ$ 6,000)
Minimum payout is NZ$20,000 (cost NZ$ 2,400) and then any NZ$ 10,000 (cost NZ$ 1,200) multiple thereafter.
kiwi is compressing for over a week now. the band is now reduced to between 7650 and 7575. wait for a breakout. Mck says up to 77. I'd wait for a signal myself.
Max got it right then . 7690 hit overnite and I would consider it an upside break out now.
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/2...9082007ok9.jpg[/URL]
Could of course be the sucker rally tho... heheh.
Hello, I am new to forex and recently bought some USD with NZD with no leverage. Just wondering what the leveraged options are out there? Have been in touch with CMCMarkets but that is all so far. Am looking to build up a short position in USD.NZD (ie. betting NZD will fall) with a 12 month view. Am getting about 4.5% on the USD so giving up about 3% on the interest rate differential.
Would be very grateful for any ideas on the above. Thank you.
I use CMC for fx and it has been no hassles so far...
Thanks, is there a better rate than 4.5% available on USD held in NZ bank foreign currency accounts? I got that from the BNZ.
whoops..............................
update on chart ....... violent to the extreme
frustrating really ,knew it was going to happen ,waiting for it to happen .. but when it happened just got a few nibbles. i have a couple of colleagues who are not really into the whole trading thing, more your long term , big picture guys . they both took out long term short nzd dollar postions ,one through options the other through leveraged account, 6 month time frame and they got it all , im sure there is a lesson in that , the pot of gold is definitely in the big picture moves.
fibonaccis nailing it!
http://img204.imageshack.us/img204/6...8082007ec0.jpg
Arco,
Interesting eh! So what's your call from here?
gravitating towards first port of call - 0.7020 perhaps?
7027 to be precise is what the picture I posted would suggest - but its done a fair chunk of that already....
well it got to the 7027 (and now much lower) but only after 7150 got hit first!! my golly gosh thats some range.
You're not wrong there Peat. Some rather nervous folk around
We are now coming into some heavy traffic around the 0.6880 - 0.6920 area, including the 61.8% retracement of the move up from the Friday 17th low. As a result I have tightened up stops now. But my word, I must say I love these swift moves (when on the right side!).
At this stage the move from the 17th is clearly an ABC correction. The question for me is are we currently in a X wave to be followed by a further ABC or are we at the beginning of the next impulse wave down. If we take out the low of the 17th then something "ugly" is happening. A hard landing perhaps?
Hi All
I prepared this weekly chart yesterday.
The brown box at the top of the chart is from the Butterfly pattern starting mid 2006 which has been forming in the wings all that time (see my post and chart #698). The completion? of this long term pattern formed a new Green bearish butterfly, which gave over 1400 pips and with the action being at the first target (green) box now.
rgds - arco
and where do you see it falling to
Hi Red
The wave count has a number of possibilities, so for now look at the uptrend line for possible support/target (circa 6500). If that breaks check with me again and I will give you the lower BF target box parameters.
I am presently riding the action down with a trailing stop until it gets hit.
regards - arco
how big is the trail arco
it bounced over 100 pips y'day arvo/evening. you trail larger than that ???
Hi Peat
Apologies for any confusion.
I had a very Major Gann support (Major+3) at .67266 where remaining shorts
were auto exited. A Dead cat bounce of sorts was sure to follow, therefore.....
I took a smaller long position with auto exit at the 1st Gann resistance .71784 (a tad early unfortunately)
Re-entered short again after bounce off old uptrend line and break back thru
Gann resistance, stop now trailing.
The wave pattern is confused at the moment, so its hard to know exactly where
the action is going next. Keep an eye on the Major Gann supports mentioned, because
if they and the weekly uptrend line break the target could be alot lower.
Present Gann calcs
Active Resistances
Minor .7178, Intermediate .7411
Active supports (potential targets)
Minor .6842,
and below that
Intermediate .6694 / Major .6665 / .6590
GTA - arco
i shorted from 7120 last night (on the way back up ) with target 6950 but only had a 30 pip stop so alas a few pips too stingy on the stop and got burned , quite disappointed when I saw how close i was to getting 170 pips.
I'm stopped out now but will re-enter shorts below 6880. Overall a good day - puts the dinner on the table! :-)
Caviar & Chips?
LOL
Close - Homemade fish & chips. Nothing too flash, but success makes them taste just that little bit better.
The Reserve Bank laid out $1.49 billion last month intervening in the foreign exchange market in a bid to slow the New Zealand dollar's rise - twice as much as it spent in June.
At the end of the month its net open foreign currency position had increased to $2.26 billion from $700 million at the end of June and from a foreign currency deficit of $58 million in May.
Despite the bank's selling, the kiwi climbed for most of July from US77c at the start of the month, reaching post-float highs of US80.6c and 76.7 on the trade-weighted index.
The appreciation was checked on July 26 when the bank raised the official cash rate for the fourth time this year, but said that would probably be it for the current cycle.
Bank of New Zealand economist Craig Ebert said any enduring impact from that statement depended entirely on subsequent data proving weak - as it had for retail spending and the housing market in particular.
"Otherwise it would have looked like wishful thinking."
The dollar's subsequent decline, to around US70c over the past couple of weeks, was mostly because of the turmoil in world financial markets.
"Substantially, it has been the global unwind of leverage," he said.
"It has come the Reserve Bank's way by good fortune rather than good management, I suspect."
The dollar is now 6 per cent below where the bank's economic projections in the June monetary policy statement had assumed for the second half of this year.
It closed at US70.18c yesterday.
Good Fortune
* The Reserve Bank sold 1.49 billion New Zealand dollars last month.
* The dollar traded between US76.1c and US80.6c over the month. So, with the dollar now trading at around 70c, the Reserve Bank has made money.
* But the dollar's recent decline is thought to have more to do with global risk aversion than the bank's intervention.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10460885
hi arco ,sounds like alan knows a thing or two on how to make a bob on the markets, maybe he'd like to come along as well
Kiwi just breaking out of a beautiful symmetrical triangle. Assuming not a false signal minimum target should be 7147.
I have jumped on for the ride. I read on the wires that Bush is throwing some serious money at the Subprime related issues - probably will put some fire into the markets overnight.
Bugger. Got the breakout but only made it to just over 0.7100. Now broken back down to the low 0.700's. Not sure which way things are heading now so standing aside.