No different to a Govt bond cept we don't have to pay interest and have the obligation to dig up the gold one day. Also people seem to have confidence in the Kiwi $
Printable View
Quite frankly thats a ridiculous idea. Although I may be overestimating peoples intelligence I dont think you'd get too many takers on that one
It doesnt take into account the primary reason why people buy gold and accept it as a store of wealth
People believe that in a time of systemic financial system breakdown (when all fiat currencies effectively become worthless ) that their gold or silver may still be able to get them goods and services...
I dont think those certificates would work too well in that scenario as they are just another fiat currency.... backed by the same people who (at that stage) will have failed you in the previous one.
well peat I think you find in both gold an silver case many people own an trade paper precious metals it actually makes up 95% of all silver traded daily is paper with no-doubt no backing of real silver tis the reason why real silver isn't worth $50oz+ atm when Goldman's an the likes can short sell millions of oz with free paper money from there mates at the FED
but the paper system won't last for ever- It's shown signs of collaspe esp .USD
personal I'd rather hold the real thing...
actually its exactly how the system works at the moment but if you wanted the gold. Instead of going to the NYC fed reserve and then filling out forms and showing your certificate and then hiring bodyguards and security guards to carry the gold. The NZ govt would undertake to dig the gold up and mine it and deliver it if you ever needed it, and in the world that you are thinking of where the modern economy has collapsed then there is no way i would swap my food or shelter for a bunch of yellow bars no matter how pretty. Sorry in that world food and Iron and weapons would be the most valuable commodities. Not gold.
Hi,
I'm new to this. How to invest in gold ?
What is the good gold list companies in NZ and Australia ?
cheers
Have a look at LGL Lihir Gold
Probably one of the 'cheapest' producers on the ASX / well positioned to do even better if the price of gold jumps again / and big enough that if Newcrest want to get more gold reserves to balance their overweight copper position Lihir would be the target
well if your after bigger gains but with little more risk buying gold jnrs like -CVX,NAV,IAU reason being the costs to find decent discoverys an time frame to get into production means most majors like NCM,NEM,LGL etc are far better taking over jnrs than exploring new areas an as GOLD price moves futher north so will the value of gold discoverys
JBMurc
You still holding TRY, have looked into them a bit more & like there no nonsense style of getting on with it
yeah still have a indirect holding sold my direct holding at- 2.19 - to invest more into CFE NAV mainly for a short term trade play both should head higher
Do plan to buy back into TRY again before they start producing in S.A just didn't see their SP moving much in the next couple months with the loss for the halfyear not helping buying strength
late 2010 TRY will be north of $3 IMHO
IMHO it's only a matter of months till Gold silver breakout north
Jason Hommel writes:
"The CFTC is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and their job is to regulate futures contracts, to prevent fraud. But they protect and encourage fraud! How? They place position limits on the longs (and there should never be limits on what you can buy in a free market), but they refuse to place and enforce position limits on the shorts (who fraudulently sell what they do not have). If anything, to prevent fraud, they should limit the shorts, and not limit the longs.
Also, it is well known that JP Morgan is a major precious metals short, but the CFTC does nothing.
http://www.caseyresearch.com/displayGsd.php?id=106
http://www.investmentrarities.com/te...02-16-10.shtml
Here are a few links of importance.
This shows that the notional value of JP Morgan's derivatives exceed $72 trillion.
http://www.occ.treas.gov/ftp/release/2009-161a.pdf"
From a hard hitting article by Jason Hommel relevant to both gold and silver at http://silverstockreport.com/2010/cftc-meeting.html
no harm on taking some profits on LGL----- NAV's looking real good I'd hold CVX a outside with mid term growth good buying sub 10c
Welldone guys. Just FYI Macbank have upgraded LGL to $4.50.
disc: not a holder
If I was you I'd be selling 60% is a nice profit just alittle behind my NAV investment
GOLD has yet to really shine If you view the 10yr GOLD chart on the asx.gold thread your see what I mean GOLD is trending up as long as Central Banks create trillions n trillions of new Tenders of exhange----
Yeah long way to run but I thought I would get in a little gloat while I can. Could be a case of speaking too soon.
RBS is looking better than I thought and the Lloyds rights issue helped a lot. Still if RBS goes back to the same level of profits or close to of pre crisis levels then there is another 100% to be made. RBS is worth about $30bill at the moment and can easily make $8bill per year. I think it will survive and do well.
SA gold sector at a tipping point
Brendan Ryan | Wed, 21 Apr 2010 11:02
[miningmx.com] -- THE declining South African gold industry is fast approaching a tipping point where further restructuring will be needed resulting in the loss of many more thousands of jobs.
Thats the view of Gold Fields CEO Nick Holland who, in a wide ranging interview with Miningmx, said that a solution is needed this calendar year.
Holland added, 2010 is crunch time for the industry. We need to do something within the next three months to start moving to a different strategy otherwise its not going to be good for anybody.
Holland was speaking against the background of a string of problems that have hamstrung the SA gold mines over the past 18 months - in particular the strength of the rand against the US dollar.
This has put a cap on the revenues being earned by the SA gold mines despite the rising dollar price of gold while the industrys costs have been rising inexorably.
The current rand gold price of around R270,000/kg is nearly 20% lower than the level of R330,000/kg reached early in 2009 when the dollar gold price was around $920/oz compared with the current $1,140/oz.
Harmony this week announced it was closing another three marginal shafts bringing the total number of shafts shut down by the group in the past year to seven.
Holland commented, absent a significant increase in productivity then, unless we see a major change in the rand gold price, some kind of rationalisation of the industry looks more and more probable.
He added, thousands of jobs are at risk because the gold industry is top heavy given the current level of production. We have to claw back some productivity or the inevitable is going to happen and we will be forced into a downscaling exercise.
I dont want to put those people on the street. I want to preserve jobs. I am trying to find a win-win situation with government and organised labour but we are running out of time.
Looking on the positive side Holland said he believed a realistic solution could be found. An increase in gold production of just 10% from current levels would be sufficient to create sustainability.
Holland commented, we have a very high level of fixed costs in this business and the problem is that we are not working the orebodies hard enough.
Another 10% in gold production would make a phenomenal difference to the bottom-line.
Holland singled out the number of working shifts being lost for a variety of reasons over and above normal holiday periods as the key issue.
He said, we have to mine at a rate which allows us to recover our costs and make a return but we lost around 8% of our total shifts last year.
We are not getting enough blasts at the mining faces. The production of ore from the mines is not enough to support the on-going cost structure of the industry.
Hollands proposed solution is a six-day working week with every second Saturday being a compulsory working shift.
He commented, that would add an extra month to our working operations. That would make the difference between having sustainable operations and being forced into a downscaling exercise.
Holland said Gold Fields was in the process of debating the proposed six day week with the unions but had not yet come to terms with them.
He said, my approach is that - if not the six day week then what? I am open to ideas but we can only find a solution through a constructive approach by labour, ourselves and government.
Asked about the recent mining summit Holland commented, the main focus was on transformation of the industry and I dont have a problem with that.
Its important that the SA mining industry reflects the demographics of our society and I have bought into that.
Overall, I can see what the Department of Mineral Resources is trying to achieve and I really believe we have to transform.
We have made considerable progress over the past five years although it has not been as rapid as we would like. It has not been easy because the pool of talent in the country is very small.
We have to train more people ourselves which is why Gold Fields is investing R26m in the mining engineering faculties at the University of the Witwatersrand and the University of Johannesburg.
Gold Most Likely to Double: Puru Saxena
23 April 2010, 04:37 p.m. EST
By John Dourekas
Of Kitco News
Hong Kong (Kitco News) -- Gold will most likely double from its current $1150 an ounce during the course of the bull market, according to Puru Saxena, founder of Puru Saxena Wealth Management.
In an exclusive interview with Kitco News, Saxena said one major factor in gold’s favor "is that central banks have now become net buyers of gold. So that reduces supply from the market,” said Saxena.
Investment demand will appreciate over time as people become more dubious over currencies and they transfer assets into gold as a hedge, said the investment adviser from his Hong Kong office.
He thinks inflation will occur at an accelerated pace over the next few years. "Real interest rates are negative in most countries, so gold should continue to benefit purely as an anti-currency because people lost faith in the euro and the dollar," he said. "At some point people are going to say well, ‘we don’t want to lose purchasing power in currencies that are dubious, we want gold as an insurance.’”
Saxena is not so optimistic, however, for base metals, which he said are likely to struggle. “If you look at the inventory levels at the London Metals Exchange, the stockpiles are extremely elevated and inflated," he said. "So even though copper, lead and zinc have had a big run-up since last August, inventory levels have actually increased, so that leads us to believe it is speculation.”
As for the sudden rise of palladium, Saxena cautions against this metal for now. “Palladium has gone parabolic. Usually when you have a parabolic spike they are followed by a parabolic collapse," he said. "I think palladium will have a big correction and when it does, that will be the time to buy."
Currently, Saxena said he is fully invested in his preferred companies. “We think the bull market will run for another couple of years – in my view we will see a big boom again in all asset classes,” he said.
Saxena sees more opportunities in precious metals and energy. He said that he is invested 35% in energy and 15% in precious metals. On currencies he prefers the Canadian and Australian dollar, as well as the Singaporean Dollar, Chinese Yuan and the Indian rupee.
American Revival?
Saxena does not subscribe to the bearish view that has America on the wane. “The US is still the world’s largest economy,” he said. “Surely it is losing its dominance as countries in Asia climb-up the prosperity ladder but it will be a gradual transition. I don’t think the US is going to go down in flames. Ultimately the American consumer will come roaring back.”
He is, however, skeptical of the lack of clean-up of the financial system. Throughout the recession the total debt in America has continued to expand and this is the crux of the problem, he said. “You cannot solve a problem of over-leverage and excess debt by taking on more and more debt. You can’t put band-aids on the problem or you will eventually have a currency crisis,” said Saxena.
Saxena said that over time the consequences of this will be twofold: longer term interest rates will increase substantially over the next decade and the CPI, which he calls a “terribly flawed barometer of inflation” will double in seven to eight years. In turn, he said, the US dollar’s purchasing power will diminish against hard assets.
The US has three options for survival, said Saxena, “It can either accept a painful recession. They can default because it cannot pay back liabilities or the third option is monetary inflation. I suspect they will continue to debase the value of the dollar and print greenbacks.”
In the future, Saxena said that he predicts the financial industry will become more heavily regulated. “A bank should either operate as a commercial bank with no investment banking or if you go into investment banking the government should not bail you out." "If you make mistakes you should be penalized and the bond and shareholders lose everything.”
EU Debt Crisis
Saxena is not a big fan of Europe. “I think the IMF or European Union will bail out offenders but that is a band-aid on the problem and it will be a long-term negative effect for the euro," he said. "I think the euro is a terribly flawed currency because you have so many different nations with different objectives, requirements and problems all lumped into one basket.”
The problems with Western Europe are the same as in the US, said Saxena. “Too many excesses; too much credit; too much consumption and not enough savings.”
No End for Goldman
Saxena said Goldman Sachs has been made a scapegoat and will survive the tribulation. “The biggest offenders are Freddie Mac, Fannie Mae and the regulators themselves because all these shenanigans were occurring right under their noses," he said. "Regulators knew what was going on… So I think to come back at Goldman alone is a bit unfair –I think you have to go after everyone.” He said that in five years from now people will have forgotten about this ordeal.
China Correction
Property in certain cities in China are certainly overvalued, said Saxena. “If you look at Beijing and Shanghai the properties have become incredibly unaffordable -- it takes 20 years of income for the average household to buy a property,” he said.
A correction in China will occur when there is more monetary tightening, said Saxena. When this will happen? Saxena does not know. “One thing working in favor of Chinese assets is that China doesn’t allow the Chinese to invest overseas – so the money is all contained within the economy,” he said.
As for the purchase of the IMF’s 191.3 tonnes of gold, Saxena forecasts Asian Central Banks will purchase a significant amount. “Over time as these cash piles for China and India continue to get bigger and bigger with foreign exchange reserves, they will turn towards buying hard assets,” said Saxena. He does not think IMF gold sales are a big threat to the markets as they were four or five years ago.
Market Manipulation?
Regarding rumored gold market manipulation by the major banking powers, Saxena has some suspicions and would not be surprised if some paper selling was occurring to keep the gold price down.
“The central and private banks make their money by promoting the fiat money system –if the price of gold suddenly jumps fivefold, that is a red flag that there is something seriously wrong with the system," he said. "It would not be surprising for me to hear that they are suppressing the price of gold – we had the biggest financial crisis in decades and rather than increasing in value, the price of gold actually fell.”
Saxena said he has been following the work of GATA for a long time and "they make a reasonable case for that, but my argument is; what market is not manipulated? Everything is manipulated,” he added.
I don't think gold prices can go up much further. Governments are printing money but all the bad loans from banks is pretty much equal to the money being printed.
Gold has got out of hand and now everyones speculating instead of investing in it. People are scared and gold is for all the scared people.
there was a nice long entry on gold last few days , looks like a triangle may have printed with heavy support area and a morning star candlestick pattern
double long position on , will see how price develops to determine target.
This could go either way, I'm looking at a short position if it breaks below 1500 myself.
uptrend has lost momentum,.
i cant quite put my finger on it but im a little sceptical about the strength of this move higher, no target and will bail when it turns lower.
triple bottoms have a slightly fragile look to them, its just too transparent where the stops will be, but profits are the name of the game.
Some of the biggest gold investors and gold reserve holders may sell gold to overcome current financial pressure from lower oil prices.
Big gold investors like Russian Central Bank may sell gold to save rouble
The biggest gold investors such as China and Russia may sell their gold reserves to overcome temporary financial difficulties.
DYOR.
Same BS that's been circulating for months. For Russia gold has been one of their best investments.
China, what crisis?
To me looks like gold is now forming a pennant on the daily chart. In which case another strong uptrend is increasingly likely in the coming weeks. Maybe its waiting for a trigger like another breakdown in oil prices. Been trading this short term lately both long and short with a lot of success but now waiting on some sort of comfirmation. Keen to hear other thoughts.
Yep agree thought the same thing yesterday.
All these global FED rate cuts certainly going to help gold and silver - GOLD up again overnight - spot gold up 1% of the back of the British pound rate cut lol - we will be at zero soon and paper money will be the casualty here
check out the book "prosper" by Chris Martenson - great read
The world resources are at their limits and we will struggle to grow because of these constraints
The world has 200 TRILLION debt
LIABILITIES AT 5 X THE DEBT
AND a world that will struggle to grow
next 20 years will be unprecedented and we cant look back at the past 20 years to see whats going to happen as we in uncharted territory now
Larger view we will see a great wealth transfer and its going to happen - it happened in Germany many years ago , more recently in Argentina and what happens is we have too many claims built up, its money and credit and theres not enough stuff and people call it great wealth destruction but its not , its transfer, its transferred from people who have too much paper wealth to people who own the real thing or have physical wealth
we now seeing stocks hitting all time highs and bonds hitting all time highs - this is a crazy situation that can only be made sense of when we look at what central banks have done to liquify and print money so people should be looking to real tangible wealth not paper wealth
HOLD
Realestate
Gold / Silver
Cash
What you are saying may occur Schumacher, but I think the theories behind it are wrong. Wealth transfer (and growth) recently has been to China. Next cabs off the rank India, Bangladesh. chunks of Africa. Technology leads to massive growth, in some cases using far less resources than before.
I agree that the world financial markets are a propped up mess, but the future will look after itself, probably by repeating what we have seen for millennia, not just the past 100 years. Empires come and go.
Chinese demand for Gold to drive price.
https://www.kitco.com/news/article/2...s-price-action
gold indecision type candle at the highest ever price
silver indecision type candle
A misconception held by many is that the POG always moves in the inverse direction to LT IR's. I wonder if this belief derives from another even greater misconception? The one in which folk believe that the POG only increases during inflationary periods, and decreases during deflationary periods.
When pulling back and looking at the longer term picture, charts clearly show that the POG often entirely invalidates the mainstream narrative. The following chart (courtesy of goldchartsrus) perfectly portrays the actuality.
Attachment 15066
Hi FTG, gold tends to rise whilst inflation is at the beginning. Once interest rates are raised to counter inflation, gold tends to lose ground due to the holding cost.
We have also been in a period of global tension that has added to gold's lustre.
Imo gold will move a lot higher once the US starts to lower interest rates.
I agree and think by the end of the year Gold/Silver/Copper/PGM will be substantially higher than present prices
https://www.marketindex.com.au/news/...ting-cheap-ubs
GOLD so UNDERVALUED
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EuEswKNAuqw
Gold surged toward $2,590 per ounce on Monday, setting a new record high, supported by a weaker dollar and lower bond yields amid growing expectations of an aggressive US interest rate cut this week. Fed fund futures indicate that investors are increasingly betting the Federal Reserve will opt for a 50 basis point cut, with markets pricing in a 59% chance, while the odds for a modest 25 basis point reduction stand at 41%, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. This follows a weekly job report that signaled further softening in the labor market, as evidenced by weak August payroll data. Recent data also showed that US inflation is trending lower, though some stickiness remains. Additionally, gold benefited from the ECB's decision to lower its main interest rate last week, reflecting growing confidence among policymakers that inflation in the region is steadily declining.