:D
and when I set that t/p this morning I thought I was being tooooo ambitious....
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:D
and when I set that t/p this morning I thought I was being tooooo ambitious....
option profit now > 400%
^_^
Zyreon, run it to expiry mate
Peat, when the market gets a bee in its bonnet, like its getting now, any level might seem crazy, but you're likely to see it!!
hmmm
i was considering swapping it for an at the money option...use the profits to extend expiry.
meditate on this i must
This H&S on the daily has worked out very well with close to 500 piparoonies seen to date, if you managed to stay on board. I didn't but have captured most of it in fits and starts on the way down.Quote:
quote:20/6 - I still see the H&S pattern, with current northerly progress still retesting the neckline, now residing around 7200 area,
Reading the "bible" to try and determine some price objectives, clearly the ideal objective would be 100% of the whole move up from circa 5900.
BUT right here at 6690, we are at the L P Fib 50. Just wanted to point that out - make of it what you like, but maybe, just maybe we might see a little bounce.
Xerof
Arco, re NZD
Major Gann wouldn't be liking the steepness of this current trend either would he?
Bugger me, got the rally off 6690. Couldn't wait for 6755 so shorted at 6744. Just hope we don't end up with a key reversal, but lots of time for that to fade into oblivion
Xerof
wow, that's ****ed up
Not good but no surprise,hope people I know over there are ok.
Yesterday
Just a coincidence?.....maybe not....current high 6805Quote:
quote:Overnight troops managed to scout around
Ganns first post at 6835 reaching the outer
field of Monarchs circa 6759.
Therefore I expect they will re-group and kick
Major Gann's rear ...........
It will be an interesting night with the British situation.
wow, so i take it speculators closed their shorts... ran over to cable etc and jumped on bandwagon... illiquidity caused rally.
now people wisen up and shorting the rally (me included ;)).... hmm maybe back down to 6700 by morning?
I remember the night of 9/11, (who can forget), and a similar pattern occurred in NZD. There was a strong rally of about 100 pips, in an illusionary 'safe haven' burst of buying, followed by a collapse of 200/300 pips, as risk aversion took effect i.e lets take our money home lads. The reason was, I believe, related to other asset markets collapsing, i.e. the DJI, etc etc and hedge funds were forced to close out profitable positions to cover losses elsewhere.
I've deleted my comment re charting tools, as the situation has developed for the worse since that posting, and it would be in bad taste to leave it on the thread
Xerof
true true, i was hardly into stocks during 9/11 let alone currency.
just occured to me before about the whole safe haven thing
i was away from the screen during last nights volatility but had some sells setup so have now re-enetered short at .6732
as the gold coast guru said volatility creates opportunity.
Added big parcel shorts at 6781 just before retiring,
........woke to a nice 50 pips...........hanging in.
Nice work lads, seems we all kept cool heads and sold the spike
Added to short from 80 with a few more mint wafers at 75
Also not tempted.....
Xerof
Quote:
quote:Slip sliding away, slip sliding away
You know the nearer your destination, the more you slip sliding away
good levels to reenter short here ..... shame I cant or i would.
Caution required, in my view - those 50% fib retracement areas for both NZD (0.6590) and AUD (0.7370) held very nicely on Friday, but agree - topside is probably limited.
Xerof
my forecast for this week is sideways movement.
CPI on Thursday if it's too high could raise risks of an OCR increase, which may pose an appreciation of NZDUSD risk. - so this could be a barrier to further downward movement. hmmm
I think the catalyst for a move down to and past 65 will be the next fed rate hike
I'm looking for an eventual move down into 64-3 within the next few months, what are your thoughts?
Sorry, been away for a while, taking little miss Xerof to airport.
Yes, a few days of consolidatory upward pressure may be on the cards IMO before the big kahuna south again.
Arco might like to tell us more precisely where Major Gann has regrouped with stout defence.... my guess would be where last weeks bombing spikes took us.... 0.6770/.6805
Xerof
Hi Xerof
Interesting to look back at the figures from
Thursday to see how they worked out.
....Overnight troops managed to scout around
Ganns first post at 6835 reaching the outer
field of Monarchs circa 6759.
Therefore I expect they will re-group and kick
Major Gann's rear before departing further south
to tackle Leonardo Pisano's 50 stationed at 6695.
Low of 6679 fits in nicely with Leonardo Pisano's 50 .
Spike to 6805 fits in nicely with Ganns post at 6835
The Gann figures remains the same, so I feel 6835
should hold firm on any upward push.
I will be scaling in some shorts when/if NZD get
into forbidden territory.
from platform news re the AUD/NZD (still relevant to this thread)
[AUD/NZD] firms above 1.1000 handle after a corrective pullback last week. This dip demand attracts corporate and funds interest close to 1.0940-30 area. Bullish sentiment remains intact for retest of last Wed's 1.1070 target. A slow grind higher while fx market awaits for a slew of NZ's data this week. ANZ jobs data and NZIER qtrly survey are first on line tomorrow, retail sales on Wed and inflation data on Thurs. NZD will make or break week. Recent soft data has seen a slowdown from its peak. Solid base at 1.0930 (01 Jul low), s-term resistance at 1.1040.
and more...
[NZ PREVIEW] NZIER's Qtrly Survey of Biz Opinion (QSBO) 22.00GMT is one of the most important set of data regarded by the Central Bank. Biz confidence and own activity indicators are all well expected to fall, consistent with the plunge seen out in the recent NBNZ biz survey. But it will be the survey's latest update on capacity/labour constraints that will set RBNZ's policy direction and clinch whether it needs to tighten monetary policy further. Whilst the NBNZ survey is not a definite strong guide to these QSBO measures, it's inflationary components all notably softened in June, suggesting a similar easing will occur in the QSBO survey; and proving a rate hike will be increasingly difficult to be justified by the hawkish central Bank.
sheesh now I know how a manic depressive feels
LOL
up 400% last week now only up 100% on my option
and it expires 27 July... got greedy - or stupid
might just have to swap it for an August option... not too confident of a return to 66 before the fed rate hike in Aug - I have a feeling that it might just crab along sideways until then, fed rate increase will probably be the catalyst for a sub 67 move
on the other hand CPI tomorrow... and US trade, hmm time to play with the "giant 3D puzzle" (quote from market wizards book)
Retail sales down .6%
This may help turn the upward correction;)
Cheers
Slam
mmm good figure to cap OCR
It's too quiet here on the threads guys - everyone licking wounds, rueing missed opportunities, reading the chapter on money management[xx(][xx(]
Got into the zone and a bit more but good call there Arco.Quote:
quote:Arco: The Gann figures remains the same, so I feel 6835
should hold firm on any upward push.
I will be scaling in some shorts when/if NZD get
into forbidden territory.
Hope you didn't do anything rash on this one ZQuote:
quote:zyreon: up 400% last week now only up 100% on my option
and it expires 27 July... got greedy - or stupid
FWIW, and I'll stick my gonads on the line here - we should now see 6690 level broken, in the first leg of the big kahuna - sell rallies to .6800 (I'm already short slightly under that) if seen, or stop enter at 6680 IMVHO, DYOR, caveat emptor etc etc
Xerof
nah called advisor, had a chat about NZDUSD, mostly told me what i already knew, few other interesting tidbits.
ended up taking profit on that jul put this morning though, a mere 350%, looking to re-enter on a bounce - preferably somewhere around the 68 mark, for expiry in October, my view is sub 65 by then
well yeh , have to let my lesson digest, tho did try to make a few pips last night and today so clearly the addiction is still there... repeat the mantra after me ... greed is good ... greed is goodQuote:
quote:Originally posted by Xerof
It's too quiet here on the threads guys - everyone licking wounds, rueing missed opportunities, reading the chapter on money management[xx(][xx(]
FWIW, and I'll stick my gonads on the line here - we should now see 6690 level broken, in the first leg of the big kahuna - sell rallies to .6800 (I'm already short slightly under that) if seen, or stop enter at 6680 IMVHO, DYOR, caveat emptor etc etc
Xerof
the break of 0.6758 looks potentially a turn
shorted at 57
bailed at break even
looking for stronger signals
Everything seems to be losing momentum going into last sessions for the week - maybe everyones had enough already this week.
My gonads are therefore still firmly attached, all present and accounted for. (but admittedly of no practical use these days)
Still sell rallies to .6820, s/l .6850, if done resell .6875/80
Xerof
trading again
short at .6763
now that there is a 20 point gain I have put in a 31 pip trailing stop starting from break even.
stopped out on the bounce at +15 - was very low risk tho, once I got the initial buffer in place....
so why is the kiwi not following the euro down or at least not to the same degree...
its my only open position today [xx(]
i lost pips on everything last couple of days waiting for this breakdown in the Eur and then when I dont have a possie and am at work it does it.... aaaargh
unfortunately kiwi plays to a slightly different tune Peat.
Remember something GC Martin once said - lagged....lol...gt & gl...
sell a break of 6734, as long as MACD has turned negative, but then it has trendline support at 25 and 15 - sell the hell out of it if it breaks 15 IMO and sell again if 6685 breaks
well the multiple trendline support has held again - second support at 6725, despite 6734 breaking.
IMO - Better to wait for a confirmed break of the last outpost, which I reckon is around 6710/15 level
Xerof