Exuberance? Might be a timely warning to take profits and leave ...
But on the other hand - hype can do amazing things to share prices and impossible to predict when the bubble will burst.
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This might be relevant for anybody still pondering to jump on the recent bounce:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/07/b...rus/index.html
Anyway - good luck to holders ...Quote:
Lufthansa' (DLAKY)s assessment is that "it will take months until the global travel restrictions are completely lifted and years until the worldwide demand for air travel returns to pre-crisis levels." Based on this, it has decided on "extensive measures to reduce the capacity of flight operations and administration long term," it said.
I guess in the last two days we've had a trading halt for Virgin and now a support plan for US airlines.... and AIR is up 30% or something.
Even despite both of those things I don't see AIR being back to anything close to their earlier profitability within 3 years or maybe even more. And they will be on track for an absolutely enormous loss this year.
I've still got a small holding of AIR that I neglected to sell earlier. Might have to get out while I still can.
"regional services should be operated by a fleet of Dash 8's and ATRs
for public service routes, and "charter by demise" arrangements made
with operators like Alliance". " The Brisbane-based
carrier, with an all Fokker fleet of 49 aircraft, has been touted as a
possible "replacement" for Virgin Australia should the airline fail to
see out the crisis. When Virgin Blue, stepped up to take the place of
Ansett in late2001, the airline had a mere nine aircraft in its fleet".
What’s going on with AIR!
From .85 to 120 in the last 6 days.
Can’t see any planes in the sky above Auckland, must be flying all over the rest of the country! ;)
A timely reminder that the Share Market is NOT about the intrinsic value of the company it is ALL about market sentiment...Its a market...same as the Abu Dhabi camel market just the participants here generally are better dressed.....or in the case as present, probably not.
Likewise, "whats going on" to the whole Global Equities market..I have been investing for 47 years now and I must admit I have got no idea what the Equity market is doing atm...The equity market is meant to be forward looking and in my opinion that suggests the market is extremely over valued..As far as AIR (a cyclical stock dependent on economic conditions) is concerned the price rise, a relief rally or not, makes no sense to me fundamentally..
Market runs on sentiment and when sentiment conflicts with Value TA becomes the better investment measure, as TA measures sentiment...
The chart below shows the recent 40ish% gain off a shocking plunge..AIR is a bear and in market theory the price rally suggests a bear market correction which will end with a lower high at a resistance point (line)..The nearest resistance line is a gap line and today AIR has ignored it and broken through thanks to the positive momentum of the markets overnight...However this TAer takes this optimistic price break as a precaution that AIR is still a hold..but buying/accumulating needs confirmation as to how far further this rally can go..after this break trough the $1.50 is the next resistance area which coincides with closing the gap, I monumental task I would have thought but at the moment the markets are insane so I don't disregard any targets..
Attachment 11300
Likewise. I have been investing since the early 1980's and have never before seen the market so totally divorced from the underlying fundamental's of the economy.
I know we're in a new environment of helicopter money but still, the market strength beggars belief relative to the underlying performance and there's no finer example in the market than AIR.
Economic reality will bite eventually, like it always does so I am happy, (with the odd exception of extreme value), to sit this irrationality out and sit on my cash from the 11 year Bull run and happy to maintain a modest short position in AIR.
No, I don't think so. It is almost impossible to short in the NZ market. Far more difficult than in Australia and the US. Even my CDF provider will not allow me to short AIR at this point in time. If I could I would. Please tell me how shorting distorts markets any more than going long distorts markets?
Don't think I've ever seen such a screaming sell....ever....
https://www.stuff.co.nz/travel/news/...gional-problem
Love what they signed up for to get a loan..just love it..as we are in reverse logic territory is this a buy sign? :)
Truth is even AIR's smallest plane the Q300 is far too big for the domestic loads they currently carrying. Sounds AIR were bleating like stuck pigs in the media yesterday saying they're about to go broke if they don't get some of the Govt's $600 assistance for the aviation sector. Maybe the Govt have a cunning plan to let them go broke so AIR can get some cheap appropriately sized aircraft !
https://www.soundsair.com/
Without any meaningful international network for the foreseeable future, perhaps AIR should go back to their roots and invest in service for provincial N.Z. towns and smaller cities ? Perhaps an opportunity for Shane Jones regional lolly scramble money ?
Hmmm.had a bit of trouble trying to post the image...as well I have been for sometime now unable to enlarge it onto the thread..Don't know if it is me or ST..probably me.
I have clicked on the attachment and it seems OK to me..
MP52 do you have a browser with an installed pop-up blocker extension.
TA (Technical Analysis) does not apply logic..
Yes its so much easier to see the charts in hindsight...
After AIR's melt down to 80c who would have thought AIR would gain 50%....I certainly didn't..Independant Observer...as you say with underlying conditions the way they are..who would have thought...
TA reflects this recent rally and TA has not signaled that the rally could be over...so why would you want to short during a correctional rally with no sell signals...eh?
I also cannot see the attachment.
Why would you want to short? Because although the sell signals your looking for are not there, I'm saying you are looking for the wrong signals. The fundamentals are bad. TA is not a reliable indicator of the future performance of these shares. This bounce would appear to be a result of factors based in fantasy. It's my opinion and the advice I'd give to my family/friends if they asked for it.
A picture paints a thousand words:
https://www.rawstory.com/wp-content/...04/kramer.jpeg
American stats, but reinforces your point.
You obviously are unaware of the latest research that appears to show that the virus is neutralized when exposed to high altitude flying at 35,000 feet. Airlines expected to be in high demand shuttling air from ground level up to cruising altitude...exchanging air and returning to ground level...reported on fox news recently. Now does that make sense? :p