I understand that, that's why I was asking why can't the numbers come from an independent source?
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much the same plan as me, i am too young to worry about buying a house, gotta get my degree first but getting a house on the coast / warkworth is definetly a good idea, lots of growth going to be happening up those ways, but by the time i get in will probably be too late :(
but if shrewdy is right maybe rpm, ura, nwe etc could change things over the next few years ;)
Oh golly gosh...
Im not tipping URA...
its on my watchlist only...
:cool:
.^sc
SC, im voting national as well. im getting sick of seeing helen clark's face.
in my early twenties and at auckland uni doing a bachelor of property as well as a BCom.
From my perceptions i see this:
there will always be a bullish market for those who wish to buy there first home...
maybe we need to look closely at market value and how it is derived? "the fair value at which a willing buyer and willing seller exchange an asset in an arms length transaction, at a certain point in time assuming both parties acted prudently and knowledgably.
in my opinion all the prudent and knowledgable people will be renting if the IRR of equity markets or other investments exceed that of owning a home. they will use this margin to increase their cash base to buy a house outright or at least with <50% Loan to Value Ratio.
if investors arent acting prudently or knowledgably then what happens? the market gets distorted to the extent at which it gets under or overpriced..
if one area of investment is exceeding returns of another, a rational investor will switch to the option that provides the higher rate of return. thus selling their investment property etc.. this should eventually create an increase in supply and reduce the price to one that correlates with the property and economic cycles.
other options i guess we youngies could consider is take over one of our parents investment properties at a discount or interest free basis..
for me my personal strategy is just to acquire land.. purchase the asset that doesnt depreciate and work yourself up from there, anticipate future areas of growth and where city and town fringes may extend..
i heard from CBRE that the residential land supply in the Manukau District (Auckland) will be gone in two years. if land stock is fixed then the price is only going up with demand. i expect this pattern to emerge in other areas as well.
do the hard yards now and with your current income and market gains increase your cash base to one that will allow you to buy a decent chunk of land somewhere. years later when demand is so fearce you could subdivide and sell.
eventually for most houses as they age. the value of land will exceed the value of improvements.
* underground will live in a tent on his land if need be, or maybe one of them portable cottages till he can afford his home. as long as i have mah laptop with internet and my woman doesnt leave me lol
i share your enthusiasm for NWE as well shrewd... but my pick is SXP.. ive made a 100% gain on it already but still think it is a hot pick and undervalued.. just wish i put more in at my entry price lol. a lot of interest in CSG lately as im sure you may be aware
You guys better get in quick
Tide may be turning
A surge in house-buying last week has prompted warnings that first-home buyers holding out for a bargain should get in before they miss out.
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/section/3/...ectid=10510758
It is called a dead cat bounce. Abit like the market.
I'd be quite astounded that anyone could think one week of data could be extrapolated, were it not for the fact that the real estate industry is doing the talking. Remember too we haven't seen this data, nor will we be shown it - and a few sales "above reserve" does not indicate rising prices - what were the reserves? However, it's been duly noted by the Herald. The agents should remember this if the "trend break" proves to be false.
lol amazing article. Especially when a lot of experts are saying it will bottom out in 2009, and they think a sudden spurt has nullified all of these predictions.
I'm also probably voting National. While I don't think National is going to fix all the problems, I think we do need a change, and Helen and co are just stagnating in their current roles. (+ I can't stand all the babying and telling us what to do that they do (even though I'll admit the general population has little common sense and probably does need to be told what to do :/)).
Oh and Helen rubbed me the wrong way when she said to John Key in parliament "poor diddums" -- seriously, this is the leader of our country? Gosh politics in ridiculous. I'd far prefer MPs who were independently wealthy and didn't need the salary so they didn't need to 'play' politics. And instead they just got on with doing whatever they set out to do.
Anyway, I'd like to be a first home buyer in a couple of years, I guess my shares would have to do very well to get there, but I guess we'll see.
I'll be a first home buyer
I think rather then shared equity schemes, they should just remove all the tax breaks property investors gets, it'll be cheaper + more revenue for the govt too.