Fairly normal for stocks to trade more heavily following an announcement. The fact that price has dropped would indicate that there were a lot of holders disappointed by the numbers.
Disc: Happy and holding.
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Fairly normal for stocks to trade more heavily following an announcement. The fact that price has dropped would indicate that there were a lot of holders disappointed by the numbers.
Disc: Happy and holding.
I think we need to forget doing comparisons to last year and think just what maybe in the future.
As beagle says should sell more units in H2 and the way the property market is going they should easily exceed the $52m underlying profit ‘target.’
A lot has happened since they came up with that number (esp property prices) so maybe that word on the street $60m plus is still a give.
Earl Gasparich, Chief Executive Officer, commented:
We have delivered a strong result for the first half of the year and expect to achieve our forecasts for the year ending 31 May 2018 set out in our Product Disclosure Statement.
I really don’t know what people expected other than a miracle lol. I am still a happy holder and when more funds become available I will be investing at these prices. Great long term company
Pretty happy. Just doubled up. Third biggest holding now.
Yeah, I admit there are some good things to come out of the announcement (for those of you who think I'm just being a Negative Nancy) but OCA's trailing twelve month PE is just shy of 18. This is using earnings from the second half of FY17 and HY18. Using SUM as a comparison, SUM's trailing twelve month PE at the current share price is just shy of 16. This is using full year earnings of $78m that will be announced next month.
This morning I was considering buying into OCA with some of the funds I've allocated for the retirement sector, but after the announcement this morning I don't think I will. I think SUM, as a proven performer and on a lower PE is better value and am happy to stick with that for now. I will reconsider OCA after the full year results if they meet their forecasts. I expect OCA's share price to stay around $1.00 - $1.05 until then. Happy to be proven wrong and wish the holders luck.
Almost all of that profit increase was a reduction in debt load ex IPO leading to a 90% reduction in interest and finance costs.
Closer to 10-15% growth if we are looking on a like for like basis.
Still solid growth and will soon be trading on the lower end of the sectors valuations and paying a fair dividend.
Hi mate,
I hold both with a bias in terms of capital allocation to the proven performer. The market is always a forward looking animal so tailing PE's are of little relevance.
I'm happy to take them at their word that OCA is on track to meet IPO forecasts and believe a forward PE of 12 is very sound value for a stock in this sector with their stellar reputation for care.
Look at it this way. If you're moving into a retirement village in the mid 80's you're going to probably pick one with the stellar care reputation, kind of like if you want really good inflight service you'll fly Singapore Airlines or Emirates business class. A PE of this level is possible still appropriate until they prove themselves further but there is definitely potential for a rerating over time.
SUM's strengths are their independent living units which are very spacious on average for the sector. Too early to make the call on their underlying profit for 31/12/18 but my best guess at this stage is $90-95m, about 40 cps. Dec 18 forward PE is about 13.8 times.
Quite often when a decent divie is declared the share price goes up by about the size of the divie
So the 5 cent fall in the share price today is pretty dramatic in this context - not up 3cents but down 5cents
Even more of a bargain I hear some of you say .....but leave some for tj