Excellent, happy holder that bought more last week :cool:
Been more weakness than anticipated but thats been the case for a lot of stocks recently and rolling the dice on Tiwai I think it will roll over
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Anyone here got the money into their account for special divvy being the payment day. Haven't got mine yet..
There are many reasons which could be causing the downtrend ... a combination ..however the announcement back in February looks like the one that broke the Camels back and started this rot with nearly all electrical stocks..a lower result that Mr Market expected + "no foreseeable opportunities in the NZ Electrical market" so increased rate of profit returns to shareholders..
Also mentioned was quote "looking overseas"..Well!!.. with the NZ$ plummeting that's certainity made CEN's overseas expansion life much harder...but these are more assumptions to add to SB9 and workingdads collection..
Good thing about TA is that TAist don't have to figure out what's causing the downtrend and get into trouble when buying shares using wrong assumptions.....The charts are a photo history of traders behaviour (feelings)..Traders use all these assumptions and more to trade and that behavioural history can be seen below...Trading hasn't been optimistic....eh
Below is CEN Chart
Note:.. Hardly any indicators added as most that aren't leading didn't work well (sh1t happens)..but ....it's a chartist's educational dream :) ..a whole textbook in one chart..
Firstly....A Island Cluster..these candlestick patterns are rare and usually occur at the top (bearish) or bottom (bullish)..CEN is halfway down, so as I never seen one half way down before I had to google and got very limited results..What I think from Googling is that the pattern is very strongly bearish as it is a very well structured pattern like a pimple sticking out of a downtrend channel hence the purple shading.
2....The spooky support 6.05 line + the 1.5year uptrend line the island cluster sat on.
3....The 3 spooky gaps that appeared at the support/resistance 5.75 line...(traders should keep this S&R 5.75 area in mind for future reference..a price area where strange things happen)
4....A slightly off-shaped Head and Shoulder (H&S) pattern....as this pattern is the most reliable of all chart patterns a neckbreak should be treated as a strong sell warning..the FAIL pull back after the break is the lucky second chance to sell as well as a future H&S pattern bearish result confirmation....
So where to from here??
Still downwards it appears.....
Hopeful signs...Risk of falling price is becoming less risk. Risk V reward investors may have CEN on their watchlist now as they look for a bounce off the very long term 14 year Primary Uptrend support at ~$5.10 (just in view on right handed side bottom of Chart).. if that fails there is a hazy zone of multiple weak supports down to 4.75... if all that fails the next major support is the 2012 year double bottom at $4.60 (lowest point since Spring 2003).
As with all other medium termTA displine advice...wait for buy signals to enter back owning this baby...Afraid of missing out on sudden upswings?..The Momentum indicator (see chart below) has been a good leading indicator so far (as with all TA things..entering using one indicator only is risky, but there are Technical and Fundamental price points where entering using risk v reward is worth it)
For the Chartist purists....I know the chart below is not adjusted for the 50c dividend...even if it was it would only flatten out the downward trendline somewhat the rest (including patterns) still applies
http://i458.photobucket.com/albums/q...2023062015.png
I cant open the chart but it will be a result of the limitations in work system I am on than anything.
I wish I had your depth of knowledge and have a lot to learn, someone playing a smarter game may have sat back a bit longer before topping up but its a learning curve and I am still happy with the risk versus reward at present and think they are already oversold. With the numbers of shares being sold there is an equal number of buyers and throwing a bit of a guess out there that some large buys will be coming soon as the value becomes tempting to pass up.
I look at the share price when they did make the statement about overseas investment, share price took a hammering but still meet resistance mid $5's then the bonus divy was announced followed up by yesterdays statement of 100% earnings distribution, possible buy backs and monthly report with increasing demand and a cold start to the winter. Flip side, potential tiwia (my take is business being business playing a hard game to get a better pricing structure) and even Origin selling up which I cant see them doing unless the price is right ruling out on market.
I may be wrong on this but the market is looking anxious to me, some suprising drops from nervous traders with itchy trigger fingers in excess of what would be justified such as Air NZ. I have only been doing this share market thing for 2 years so my experiance is very limited but my feeling is things arent as good as they were, CEN is something I have parked some money in and could be there for quite some years, the econmy is not looking great, electricy is a stable earner in a poor economic climate which is my rationalle.
I will certainly feel more confident in this if the price starts coming back up and feel free to educate me further, I am keen to learn and appreciate it :)
Hi Hoop, I don't follow CEN but I notice there you said there was a recent 50 cent divi.As the SP gets closer to $5, a 10% divi looks attractive.
The special dividend means that CEN does not see any current prospects for growth - that's not good for a share price... However...
CEN also announced that their dividend policy is changing from 80% of NPAT to 100% of NPAT.
Watch this space - CEN will offer some great dividend value as the price keeps going down!