Think long term BP
Todays price whatever it is is just one point in time as it inevitably climbs to $50 and then $100 and so on
A2 didn’t become the next Danone in a day
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NZ export earnings at all-time high as China trade booms..
http://nzh.tw/12225438
Hey winner I got back on the BAL horse but still patiently waiting for a remount of this stallion(Probably around mid May I reckon) PS- Since 15/1/2015 only 15 posts on the ASX BAL thread and 4 of those are our recent ones winner now that's a dead horse aye.
And this from Statistics NZ...... what's that saying? "A high tide floats all ships...especially the the good ship ATM."
Dairy products lead rise in exports
Exports of dairy products led the rise in exports, up $264 million (22 percent) to $1.4 billion in March 2019.
This rise was led by milk powder, up $226 million on a year earlier. The rise was quantity-led, but unit values also rose, up 6.5 percent on March 2018. There were contrasting movements in other dairy commodities: the value of cheese exports rose $42 million, while butter exports fell, also by $42 million.
Other main contributors to the rise in total exports were meat and edible offal, food preparations (a commodity group that includes infant formula), forestry products, and fruit.
Of our main export markets, China had the largest increase, up $522 million (52 percent) to $1.5 billion.
“Exports to China were the leading contributor to increases in several primary sector commodities including dairy products, beef, lamb, and forestry products,” Mr Islam said.
Long term thinking is good. Not so sure though the current price point is an optimal entry for the long term.
I suspect the ATM investors who spent in march 2018 $14 or so per share didn't feel that smug during the last 12 months when they could buy the same share for below $10 ... :(;
Nice picture with Danone, but if you read the Danone story (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Danone) - they didn't got big with one particular milk derivate ... and it still took them 100 years to reach $25b revenue. If ATM sticks with the current CAGR (justifying their share price) they should do that in 10 years! Yeah, right ... but hold on - maybe they could produce beer as well ;)?
March IF exports ex Lyttelton up an amazing 250% on prior period. (Remember ATM's additional Marketing spending will be kicking in too.)
YTD up 51.7%. as posted on HC.
Details in this pic;
Attachment 10501
As usual DYOR.
Hmm - there seems to be some correlation - for roughly 40% of the time ...
Whether that's enough to make money out of the correlation (or lack thereof) I don't know. There seem to be quite strong and uncorrelated factors impacting on the rest:
Attachment 10502
Ah yes - but both did quite well on the 5 years chart - didn't they?
BAL more volatile due to a number of issues over the last couple of years and reached $22AU odd at one point and $20AU odd over the last year so more upside at the moment than A2 at it's current price over a short to medium timeframe. Once it gains full approval for all its products the SP of both should move closer together once again.
Just wondering -
did anybody ever manage to reconcile these "Lyttleton IF exports" with Synlait and / or Fonterra and / or Westland Milk's accounts? They all will ship some of their stuff through Lyttleton (in this case its in your tab) and / or through Timaru and /or through Tauranga (in the latter case it would not be). All three ports have "Inland ports" in Rolleston.
As well - how is A2's all important Daigou channel accounted for that way?
As well - how do the numbers capture any IF channeled through other ports (like Port of Tauranga via Rolleston)?
The tab shows big variations of something going through one particular port, but I have no idea what they mean in isolation for A2's business. I suspect nothing.
Spoil sport
But like you I have no idea what the numbers are ..whether it’s value or weight or what. But HUGE numbers though eh BlackPeter
One thing the shipments over last July/Dec were up 40% on pcp and A2 baby stuff sales were up 45% in same period so whatever the shipping numbers are they seem to be some sort of lead indicator of what A2 growth might be,
And H2 growth is even stronger ...WOW WOW WOW WOW :t_up::t_up::):scared:
Why A2 is crushing the competition in China
https://www.livewiremarkets.com/wire...ition-in-china
From TOBIAS YAO - Wilson Asset Management
I have just returned from China, looking at how Australian goods such as infant formula are sold and marketed, given the strong Chinese demand for such products. Being able to speak with shop attendants in their native language let me get to the source of information. In this wire, I share the key takeaways.
BP as always it is a tab risky to read too much into figures.
My key take away is that it is yet another indication that ATM is making huge gains with its IF (with associated high margins) and all is going to plan. However, until the company issues an update it is only an indication.
To answer some of your Q's:
- The figs are tonnes of IF exported. They do not represent $'s, so we wait for ATM's details to confirm margins/profitability etc.
- Remember that ATM has negotiated a better supply deal with SML and these tonnages will benefit.
- The figs may include some SML branded exports, but as SML have not got Chinese accreditation, these are likely to be slim
- The figs do not provide destinations, however whether it be Australia or China the results still are a boost to ATM. ATM has 30% share of the Australian IF market, but much of that goes via the Diagou channel to China.
- The figs give a level of support/justification to recent SP rises.
- The figs also give credibility to the fact that ATM is gaining market share in China.
So the figs represent a lot more than 'nothing', they indicate that ATM is on course to reaching its market guidance (and more.) But if you want to dismiss them, that's fine with me.
As usual DYOR.