Not that exciting ... but today SUM's number came up to check consensus forecast and recommendation:
So - how good are analyst consensus predictions?
SUM had in January 2019 a (peak) share price of $6.50 and analysts (consensus) forecast for January 2020 was $7.75; The share price in January 2020 however actually peaked at $9.25;
Analyst consensus predicted the SP to rise by 19% and rise it did, however consensus significantly underestimated the amount of the actual rise (42%).
Looking into the consensus buy recommendation - SUM's Buy recommendation in January 2019 was a "Hold"(5/10) - i.e. analysts said that the share will roughly move with the NZX. This was no quite right, because SUM outperformed the NZX50 over the last 12 months by 15%.
Both analyst consensus prediction and recommendation has been ways too pessimistic to be useful, i.e. for my wee exercise I call them both "FAIL".
I am doing this exercise as well with other NZX listed stocks - the overview is here:
https://www.sharetrader.co.nz/showth...arket-analysts
8 stocks checked so far (checking for each consensus and buy recommendation);
Consensus shareprice forecasts correct: 1/8; analyst hitrate: 12.5%
Consensus recommendation vs NZX50 correct: 2/8; analyst hitrate: 25%