So $5.40 here we come …….or as downtrends overshoot maybe as low as $5.00
No news coming from company until August to cheer punters up
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FM, I am first to admit that I don't possess the psychology to do short term trading. But you estimate an extra 2.7m shares were traded above normal volume, whereas only 1.5m needed to be traded for index inclusion purposes. Isn't it likely that some of those 'excess' 1.2m shares traded were traded twice, maybe even on the same day? There were some quite hefty daily price movements. So isn't it likely that some HLG shares were bought by the speculators early, then sold to the fund managers later that day, or a day later? Those quite substantial daily price movements may have captured the attention of day traders. And with HLG being outside the top 50 before entry, coupled with poor liquidity, that would suggest there were not that many algorithmic programs out there trading without a human finger on the buy button. IOW, the old fashioned situation of 'people selling to people' would not be an unrealistic view of what happened in this instance? That could mean those uncommitted holders of 1.2m shares have already left the share register.
SNOOPY
Legend is not only the one who can predict a future price rise but also the one who can advise on how fleeting it can be !!
If price of $ 6.85 was so short lived then getting off the boat wud have been a great option ...Bull actually did it right but many Gurus were justifying SP of $ 7.50+ thus confusing many into not offloading at great time ...reminds me of MEL / CEN opportunity in early Jan 2021 ....
This morning 9 people selling 3813 moved the SP 24c add another 4764 then would have moved SP to $5.50 .............easy-come-easy-go eh
Maybe moving towards real intrinsic worth or value after inclusion pop opportunity gone ...
W69 looking for $ 5 ...when yield support kicks in again ...
This is what I meant when I said I don't have the trading psychology. I can use trading rules to justify my entry. But when those same parameters that I reacted to on the buy side tell me to sell, I don't listen.
There is one big difference though. In that heady Jan 2021 time, almost every share in my portfolio, and indeed on the NZX, looked overvalued. So selling one overvalued share to buy another wouldn't have necessarily made me better off. Very different now, where there are at least 'pockets of value' out there.
SNOOPY
I don't think you should assume that ANYBODY is able to predict the future prices of stocks, and lets face it - legends around here are just posters with a certain number of posts, no matter whether they have been useful and / or sensible, or not.
Nobody can predict future stock prices or anything else in a grade 2 chaotic system where the knowledge of the system changes the behaviour of the participants ...
So - I guess, it is good that this (and other) forums gave early warning of the index change .... and all kudos to the posters who did this.
Based on this knowledge could anybody who wished to, determine how much the share is worth to them, i.e. when they want to buy and when they want to sell.
Trying to predict the height of any future SP peak is as sensible as trying to predict the next throw of the dice if you play Monopoly with your friends. For any individual dice you will have a 16.7% chance to get it right, and a 83.3% chance to get it wrong.
So - don't complain about the so called gurus who might have got it right or wrong ... ask yourself what you can do to better understand the non predictability of chaotic systems. Trusting other posters is anyway a risky enterprise, but believing in and relying on any future stock values they might throw around would be beyond believe ...
Ah yes ... and to value HLG currently around $7.50 ... I guess it would take pretty brave assumptions about future earnings and growth potential to justify that, but sure - anybody's guess is as good as yours, and nobody can predict what hype might do to a share price. The golden rule for working assumptions is however - never trust an assumption you didn't work out yourself and / or fully understand and agree with :) :